Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Baltic Dry Index

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Aussiejeff said:
Do my eyes deceive me or am I looking at a classic "dead cat" bounce? ;)

aj
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Not possible for it to go lower for very long

The owners would be better-off junking the ships at current prices than hiring out at $2,000 a day

They could get better prices organising on-board xmas or rave parties than dealing at those prices !

Shows how much activity collapsed late last year when banks stopped lending.

It wont last forever
 
The worst is over stimulus packages will no start economies moving again.

The chart looks to me like it has bounced off the lows and now taking a breather before the next leg up but only time will tell.

Read an article the other day which I will try to find about how cargo ships for oil are now floating storage points. This points to a rally coming at least in oil as speculators cash in on higher prices and how many other commodities are being stored offshore ?
 
Lucky_Country said:
The worst is over stimulus packages will no start economies moving again.

The chart looks to me like it has bounced off the lows and now taking a breather before the next leg up but only time will tell.

Read an article the other day which I will try to find about how cargo ships for oil are now floating storage points. This points to a rally coming at least in oil as speculators cash in on higher prices and how many other commodities are being stored offshore ?
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Good news for Pirates-R-Us?

:)
 
Lucky_Country said:
The worst is over stimulus packages will no start economies moving again.

The chart looks to me like it has bounced off the lows and now taking a breather before the next leg up but only time will tell.

Read an article the other day which I will try to find about how cargo ships for oil are now floating storage points. This points to a rally coming at least in oil as speculators cash in on higher prices and how many other commodities are being stored offshore ?
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Yep, the chart really can't get any lower when it is now below cost to actually operate those freighters. But then you can't rule out the index could get depressed for a significant amount of time.

And I heard about the oil companies are hiring these freighters to STORE their oil because it is cheaper than delivering it! Goes to show how "depressed" things are. hehe
 
Temjin said:
Yep, the chart really can't get any lower when it is now below cost to actually operate those freighters. But then you can't rule out the index could get depressed for a significant amount of time.

And I heard about the oil companies are hiring these freighters to STORE their oil because it is cheaper than delivering it! Goes to show how "depressed" things are. hehe
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Yep things are depressed but the point is the worst is over as the tip of the chart shows.
 
The worst is over just want an end to the northern hemisphere winter and rate cuts and stimulus packages to kick in.

Could they be over stimulating the economy ?

Watching the BDI very closely atm.
 
Baltic Dry is showing a pulse again. So we might start to have some shipping volumes again. Lets hope so.

Add it to signs that credit markets are thawing.

Extract is from The Age website today. Full article can be found on The Age.


'Shipping index soars, boosting iron-ore hopesFebruary 5, 2009 - 8:16AM
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, rose the most since at least 1985 in London as the number of idled capesizes fell to almost zero, indicating strengthening demand for iron ore.

Capesize rates have risen more than ninefold from a record low of $US2,316 a day on Dec. 2. Steelmakers may be replenishing stocks in China after they fell 22% by mid-January from a record in September. Producers abroad, faced with an oversupply of iron ore, may also be shipping ore to China for storage.'
 
Well great news maybe China will save the world afterall.

Even the US has had some better than expected results lately in housing and manufacturing although they are still pretty weak.

The early signs are emerging of a turnaround but not pinning too much on the numbers but feel things have bottomed.
 
Is it possible the increase in the Baltic Dry Index is a product of reduced suppy? Older ships with high maintainance costs being scrapped, ships converted to hold & store oil to profit from the recent extreme contango...
 
HI everyone on ASF

I have posted on other threads.
I don't have a specific figure, but my relative is working in a company in Singapore that deals with oil refinery (by the way, do you know that Singapore is one of the , if not the larger oil refinery centers in the world) , he says , some ship owners rather dry dock their ships due to what you are saying, namely lousy charter rates.

Just some info........agathos.

(Personally, I would of course like to see some pulse too. But we've got to brace ourselves for this long market winter. Thawing will be slow for some time).
 
Gloomberg is reporting that the Baltic Dry Index has had its worst week since October .

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0BMpYTufWpM

Baltic Dry Index Has Worst Week Since October as Demand Slows
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By Alaric Nightingale

Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, had its worst week since October as Chinese demand for shipments of coal and iron ore slowed.

The index tracking transportation costs on international trade routes today slid 135 points, or 4.6 percent, to 2,772 points, according to the Baltic Exchange. That took its weekly drop to 17 percent, the most since the end of October.

“The Chinese have backed off and it’s starting to show in the number of shipments this month,” Gavin Durrell, a Cape Town-based official at Island View Shipping SA, Africa’s biggest commodities shipping line, said by phone today. “Iron ore and coal seem to be slowing down.”
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If technicals mean anything on an index as this, there is not a hell of a lot of technical damage at this point, but worth keeping an eye on as a leading indicator.

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Well a bit of a breather is not a bad thing and is still way off its lows.

Cannot envisage another week as bad especially with the US payroll data released overnite.

Fundamentals will see the index carry on in its upward trend.
 
Lucky_Country said:
Well a bit of a breather is not a bad thing and is still way off its lows.

Cannot envisage another week as bad especially with the US payroll data released overnite.

Fundamentals will see the index carry on in its upward trend.
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Um...it's been going down for the last 2 months? You can't get much more fundamental than global trade still woefully sick - obviously not one of the 'green shoots' that the Lemmings like to follow?
 
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