AZR - Aztec Resources

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

26th May report said the BSF "was expected" in late June doesn't appear to be a deadline.
If the Derby report was rumour I wouldn't have mentioned it on this forum.

Red, I wasn't referring to you at all if that's the implication, this is just speculation based on possible explanations using TA theory. The more reliable and accurate the company annoucements are the less we need to guess imo. Maybe I'm just impatient about the bfs.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

When a company continues to miss its own deadlines, there is cause for concern. The BFS was originally due December '04, then January, then Q1 05 and most recently the end of June. We're now near on half way through July and we're yet to hear a peep out of AZR.

I acknowledge that the BFS is not a simple document and is typically released much later than announced. I also acknowledge that there are plenty of elements of a BFS that are outside AZR's control. That said, AZR's policy on disclosure is completely under their control. You would think that an exploration company looking to become a producer would do all within its power to foster a positive relationship with their shareholders.

I'll go out on a limb here and say that I don't expect their completed BFS to be released until september - in time for their AGM in October. This is not based on anything, except for the fact they'll want to have it out before then in order to avoid the obvious from shareholders.

Finally the reason for this post - todays trading - a cause for some concern as I may be stopped out shortly!

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

When a company continues to miss its own deadlines, there is cause for concern. .......That said, AZR's policy on disclosure is completely under their control. You would think that an exploration company looking to become a producer would do all within its power to foster a positive relationship with their shareholders.

I'll go out on a limb here and say that I don't expect their completed BFS to be released until september - in time for their AGM in October. .......Finally the reason for this post - todays trading - a cause for some concern as I may be stopped out shortly!

Great post Doc, not even a 'revised' release date. This is basically mid-July now. I seriously expect a re-test of support at 19c as this stock runs on news. Volume is flat as. FYI I'm out of AZR completely. Waiting for a re-entry, it may run up and I may miss out but I'm not concerned. I thought Burston would come through after that public statement you mentioned a few weeks ago. Oh well, glad to be following technicals rather than fundamentals, the market really is a gamble at times

Goes to show how stock picking becomes more important in choppy markets, co's with unreliable mgmt become soft targets imho.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Well, that's a quicker than expected drop down to 19.5c, might even go lower to the old all time high unless there is some assurance about the release of the bfs soon. Just look at the volume drop, shows how many were speculating. Some depth at around 19c but not sure how long it'll last at this rate. It only takes a half decent bfs for this to stabilise again imo. Good news it that the 19c support level has survived a few tests this year.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Haven't seen an AZR graph on this thread recently so thought I'd post a couple. The medium term chart shows why this could easily slip into a range in the mid teens (15-20c); if 19c goes then the last major high is the next line of support imo, with volatility this could result in some distribution and boredom for holders.

The short term graph shows the high volume on the distribution day today. The long term graph (multi-year, not shown) still suggests the uptrend is intact, but will be testing support soon imo.

Sorry no lines etc but things should be clear from a look at the graphs. Wish there were more chartists commenting on this, very boring now but a different view would be good for study. I have better risk/return candidates in mind or I would look to enter AZR at 19c again with a tight stop.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

I agree with you RK, today was certainly more severe than I had originally suspected. I'm now out again, but will be looking for an entry again soon. It's been good to me so far, but would have been better if I had of set tighter stops - rather than loose ones I have used with the expectation of the BFS being positive and worth waiting for. Just something else to chalk up to experience I guess.

And now I hear a completely unsubstantiated rumour that its this week for the BFS. Given the sell down of the week thus far, my gut feeling is that it is extremely unlikely and I stick by my original guestimate of it being released sometime between now and October.

 

[the.j]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Fourth Quarter Activities Report is out now ... awaiting market's take on it!

Cheers
J

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Fourth Quarter Activities Report is out now ... awaiting market's take on it!
Cheers
J

Thanks for that J, looks like it wasn't well received, but could've been worse. Another big down day, so bsf is at least a month away as they complete the other stuff they need to do. I think Doc's estimate is looking better and better everyday. Distribution days on high vol is bad for any stock.

 

[johnno261]

AZR-Extraction costs up a staggering 75%

I would imagine alot of downward movement tomorrow on this little fella!! MD Ian Burston has just today released some interesting new figures that don't at all look good for the company!! Extraction costs per tonne have gone from an expected $20p/t to a staggering $35p/t. A huge 75% increase which is really going to effect the company's bottom line. When prices on Iron Ore retreat in a few years time and they happen to pull back to pre 2005 prices, AZR will be operating at a loss of 4%.That's not good!!!!!

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Do you have a link please?

 

[johnno261]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Do you have a link please?

www.asx.com.au

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Thanks, for some reason it wasn't appearing on my screen. Interesting also that it wasn't market price sensitive.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR-Extraction costs up a staggering 75%

I would imagine alot of downward movement tomorrow on this little fella!! MD Ian Burston has just today released some interesting new figures that don't at all look good for the company!! Extraction costs per tonne have gone from an expected $20p/t to a staggering $35p/t. A huge 75% increase which is really going to effect the company's bottom line. When prices on Iron Ore retreat in a few years time and they happen to pull back to pre 2005 prices, AZR will be operating at a loss of 4%.That's not good!!!!!

If that is true and its siginificance is as viewed by johnno then we can guess why he's taken so long to release the info, the longer it takes the worse it appears the news is. Must be shopping around for the cheapest he can get, those figures are not encouraging. Not over yet though, perhaps this week's sp moves will tell us a lot about the next few months action as we are near key support levels, hard to get up above them if we fall sharply on volume imo.

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Well, there is definetely some news we dont know about. 5 million shares traded in the first 5 mins of trading.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Well, something did happen.

Turns out word has gotten around that the project is now marginal at best. El ninj0 was correct, on the 27th something was going on - that date was the first day AZR broke support at 20c and closed below that mark.

Companies like this reinforce the importance of sticking to your trading plan. They certainly have with me. If I had of broken the rules like I had in the past, chances are, I'd still be holding.

Attached is the chart as of COB today. It should be noted that there was steady buying at 16c today, but with market confidence being what it is, it'd be very difficult to see someone getting involved in this on a fundamental basis until the BFS clears everything up. For the technically inclined, the chart speaks for itself.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Shows how useful charts can be if traded carefully, a few of us here have made money on it and now it can go down to 1c for all we care. But lest I forget, I have been on the wrong side of the street before when some of these speccies were diving.

Perhaps we could also spend more time watching Blackdogs barking and make sure our favourite stocks are not on his list? Just an extra filter for those ones we think are going to go forever. Just a view, not yet a serious thought.

I haven't changed my technical view on this one. Former support is now resistance imo. See my earlier charts. Time to find better iron ore speccies below 20c in the exploration phase.

Might be good to keep an eye on this from time to time to see how it goes, will be a good experience for the future. Since we don't really have any concrete info it could be that AZR does come through. I'm sure there will be a bigger effort put into further drilling and exploration (or Matich might do another quick deal like with FXR to change focus).

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

AZR now in a trading halt until they announce their BFS on Monday.

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

AZR now in a trading halt until they announce their BFS on Monday.

Any word on the scene about whats going to happen doc?, ive got a bad vibe from azr in the past few days. But more often than not, i could very well be wrong.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Can't say I've been following too closely.

Seeing Fidelity sell its holding so close to the BFS is obviously a concern. I will be having a close look at the BFS to see whether or not I will keep them on my watch list. There may be trade opportunities early next week.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

BFS out - only had time for a quick glance. I'm sure more detailed analysis will follow in the coming days.

Projected NPV (EBITA) of $217mill at a 10% discount rate. With about 490 million shares on issue the project is worth about 44cps. $108mill projected capital cost to establish the mine and required infrastructure. Currently has ~$17mill cash on hand.

Fully diluted, including tax, but excluding tax credits, interest deductions and the interest itself, Koolan is worth about 29.5cps fully diluted.

This figure is indicative only and ignores many things and is conservative based on what it ignores.

At the time of writing, FAR is up 2 to 18.5cps with about 8.5mill shares traded after about 15 minutes of coming out of the trading halt. Sell depth quite strong up to 21cps with another 8mill shares in waiting, but thins out a little there after.