AZR - Aztec Resources

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

It's one of those things that may be significant or may not be, only time will or can tell.

I'm led to believe that the volume was a result of CSFB doing some crossing at 3:38:10 today in a atleast half a dozen different stocks including AZR and CMR. AZR was by far the biggest on volume.

I don't know who from or who to. I would expect some more info being made available to market on who bought them early next week. Either way, finding a buyer or a syndicate of buyers for that volume at the price it went through is significant for those that are currently holding. As long as the DOW doesnt do to badly tonight, tomorrow should provide a better indication of the direction this is heading. In the mean time, I've fired off a few emails to see if I can't find out what the go is.

It's a shame these things aren't disclosed promptly, I'd liked to see the annct of the transaction today. It comes to just under $12m for the 50k, and I got the time wrong (not that it matters much), as doc said it was around 3.38pm not 4.30.

Let's see how doc's emails go. BTW, have a look at this week's Bulletin for an article on the blow out in labour and equipment costs in WA, I've heard of a few mechanics waltzing over to the mines to earn upto 110k. Let's see if AZR can get a good deal on its construction contracts as they are in one of the busiest regions. So many things to sort out in the next two months that'll tell us a lot about near term profitablility levels (and hence the sp), glad there is still more upside potential through the continuing drilling as well.

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

It's a shame these things aren't disclosed promptly, I'd liked to see the annct of the transaction today. It comes to just under $12m for the 50k, and I got the time wrong (not that it matters much), as doc said it was around 3.38pm not 4.30.

Let's see how doc's emails go. BTW, have a look at this week's Bulletin for an article on the blow out in labour and equipment costs in WA, I've heard of a few mechanics waltzing over to the mines to earn upto 110k. Let's see if AZR can get a good deal on its construction contracts as they are in one of the busiest regions. So many things to sort out in the next two months that'll tell us a lot about near term profitablility levels (and hence the sp), glad there is still more upside potential through the continuing drilling as well.

It'll be interesting to see what happens today with the US market slightly down over night. In pre trading it looks as if AZR will jump a little higher, but you never can be sure.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Apologies for not updating this sooner.

I had the opportunity to catch up with a few people over the weekend and while few could offer any consistency in the reasons behind the crossing, all confirmed that stock was crossed at the previously mentioned time by CSFB. Even the most outrageous of conspiracy theories behind the cross wasn't very much to get excited about from a traders perspective.

One thing I was happy about is that no one I had spoken to had wound back their position in AZR despite being quite active on the sell side of their portfolios recently. If anything, this is a reflection of their satisfaction with AZR management rather than their opinion of any further upside. Their opinion is the latter will be a product of the former.

Good luck to those that hold. On a small note, in my book "early may" ends at the end of May 15. To get the BFS out to market by early may means tomorrow. Lets hope they either come out with the goods or make an announcement to let the market know why.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Apologies for not updating this sooner.

I had the opportunity to catch up with a few people over the weekend and while few could offer any consistency in the reasons behind the crossing, all confirmed that stock was crossed at the previously mentioned time by CSFB. Even the most outrageous of conspiracy theories behind the cross wasn't very much to get excited about from a traders perspective.

One thing I was happy about is that no one I had spoken to had wound back their position in AZR despite being quite active on the sell side of their portfolios recently. If anything, this is a reflection of their satisfaction with AZR management rather than their opinion of any further upside. Their opinion is the latter will be a product of the former.

Good luck to those that hold. On a small note, in my book "early may" ends at the end of May 15. To get the BFS out to market by early may means tomorrow. Lets hope they either come out with the goods or make an announcement to let the market know why.

No probs doc, saw the anncts re Fidelity too, that's a nice stake they're building up eh? Get ready for a quick dip below 20c if they prolong this, just my view, you'll see from the past that it often goes sideways for awhile, I'm just not sure if it'll be in the low 20's or below. Certainly not overvalued atm in my view but then again they haven't produced anything either.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Good call on the dip below 20 Richkid. Lets see if you were on the money for the time it spends there. For those waiting on the wings for an entry, probably better off waiting a little longer to see where its going. Certainly not for the faint of heart at the moment.

How low it will go will depend on the length of the delay and market speculation on the reasons behind the delay. If it has been delays in quotes from contractors then perhaps the sell down is unwarrented, but there's nothing to say a cost blow out is out of the question.

I continue to hold, it's still on the sunny side of my stop. I haven't locked in any profits this time around.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Cambrian Mining Boosts Aztec Stake To 18.7% In Share Swap
Reference: http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/050517/15/3skxa.html

Edited Press Release

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Cambrian Mining PLC said Tuesday that it has increased its shareholding in Aztec Resources to 18.7% via a share exchange.

The company said its directors have reached agreement with RAB Special Situations (Master) Fund Limited to exchange 60 million shares in Aztec Resources Limited for 1 million shares of Asia Energy Plc.

RAB have been a cornerstone investor in both Cambrian and Asia Energy Plc and the exchange is designed to assist Cambrian in achieving its objective of becoming a diverse mining house primarily servicing the steel industry.

As a consequence of the exchange, Cambrian's equity position in Aztec will increase to 18.7%.

Aztec is completing a feasibility study on developing a 4 million tonne per year Iron Ore project which is planned to commence construction following approvals in Q3, 2005.

Cambrian retains a 22.7 % shareholding in Asia Energy and remains firmly committed to supporting Asia Energy in its development of the Phulbari Energy project.

Atleast we can explain the volume now. Interesting that they cite 4MTPa as the goal on the BFS. They originally produced MOU's for 2MTPa, the BFS progress report then said they had 2.4MTPa planned (figure from memory, possibly wrong). All along they were hoping to get a 3MTPa resource, if they end up with a 4MTPa resource my memory would indicate that there is significant upside to their current share price. A massive IF, especially given the uncertainty created by mining being set back and now the BFS having to borrow a time machine to make it out by "early may".

Anyone care to run the numbers?

 

[tech/a]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Doc.

This stock has given up over 50% from its highs.
Its seeming a lot like the holding some are doing with MUL.
Trading the "Hope Indicator".
What I'd like to know--with so many opportunities to bail out ---as there are technical signals after technical signals shouting Sell Sell Sell----why do people hold in there when simply taking the signal and waiting for a retracement (Like it has) and then trading any further break to the upside.

It seems when a stock begins to fall and in this case heavily all of a sudden all this Fundamental stuff is offered up as WHY it SHOULDNT be falling!

Fact is it is!

Not meant as a personal attack more an observation on this and other threads where stocks turn south and traders "Hang in there"----Why?

There is something lacking and Im guessing its a plan.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Tech/A, fair comments.

I've offered much of the previous information as a function of interest, my understanding is there is still a number of people here that hold AZR. I'd definately not be telling people to hold or hang in there - particularly if they are technical traders where a stop has been triggered.

Much like your discretionary trades, I still have a holding of AZR for reasons other than technical. Sure, the idea of selling out at 30 and buying back in around now sounds fantastic, but its not part of the game plan right now.

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Big investment from Cambrian Mining PLC today. 91,600,000 securities are now in there ownership, 18% stock holding.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Confirmation released to market today that the BFS is now expected late June and has been delayed due to a remodelling of the project to 9years@4mtpa with more drilling ongoing.

 

[red]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

interesting article www.minesite.com minews may 20

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

interesting article www.minesite.com minews may 20

Thanks Red, thought it was worth extracting as it adds a perspective (speculative) rather than just reporting old news, note the recent release of the bfs annct date- late June to early July imo.

Minews Story
Date: May 20, 2005

Cambrian Tops Up Shareholding in Aztec Resources Ahead Of 2006 Production.

Interesting to see that Cambrian Mining has agreed to swap 60 million shares in AIM and Aussie listed Aztec Resources for a million shares in Asia Energy with RAB Special Situations (Master) Fund. Just to clarify the position this deal will increase Cambrian’s holding in Aztec to 18.7 per cent, while reducing its shareholding in Asia Energy to 22.7 per cent. The thinking behind the management decision of the hedge fund, which may be Christian but is certainly not altruistic, is hard to gauge. Aztec should be in production a full year before Asia Energy; it is in Western Australia rather than Bangladesh; and it has already set up offtake deals for a large part of its iron ore production. Just as important the share prices of companies have retreated by about one-third from their peaks earlier this year. The market capitalisation of Asia Energy, however, is many times that of Aztec so the two words - lobster and pot - come to mind.

RAB has been a cornerstone investor of both Cambrian and Asia Energy and Cambrian rationalises this share exchange as assisting Cambrian to achieve its objective of being a diverse mining house primarily servicing the steel industry. Fair enough, coal in Bangladesh is more likely to be used in power stations rather than steel mills whereas Aztec’s iron ore has only one destination. RAB also likes to feel it can influence management directly, or by proxy. The word ‘Master’ in the title of the fund gives a subtle insight into this philosophy. So it may be backing John Byrne of Cambrian to make sure that Aztec lives up to its forecasts on the schedule for production and tonnage, and preferably beats them.

Following its March quarterly results Seymour Pierce, broker to Aztec Resources pointed out that the latest estimate of measured, indicated and inferred resources had risen to 45.1 million tonnes at 64.6 % iron. This is some 5.6 tonnes up on the previous estimate and as exploration is continuing there is every reason to think that it will increase further. The bankable feasibility study is now close to being completed and one would assume that Cambrian is confident that it will prove robust or it would not have increased its shareholding no matter how much RAB twisted its arm. Additional studies, covering the environmental aspects of the project, have now been completed and Aztec is progressing negotiations with traditional owners for land access.

The most important thing is that offtake agreements are being put in place with major steel makers at much higher prices than existed a year ago and the company is confident that this will pertain for the next two or three years due to high demand for qood quality iron ore and a tight supply situation. During the March quarter the company negotiated a Memorandum of Understanding with Mitshibishi Corporation for the supply of 500,000 tonnes per year to Japanese and Asian customers for a period of 10 years, or the life of the mine, whichever is less. This brings the total annual production now covered by such agreements to 2.9 million tonnes out of an anticipated total of 4 million tonnes.. Mitsubishi is Japan’s largest trading and investment company with operations in 80 countries.

The feasibility study should be completed at any minute as financial modelling and report compilation is in its last stages. Provided all the requisite project approvals are received production should start with the first shipment of ore in the middle of next year. Designs and preliminary capital cost for the jetty and shiploader are complete. The jetty will be just under 300 metres long and the travelling ship loader will have a capacity of 4,500 tonnes/hour which is sufficient for a 200,000 tonne ship. Looks as if Cambrian made a shrewd move to top up its shareholding while the price was depressed by market conditions and before investors were wakened by the bankable feasibility study and the imminence of production.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Do you have an opinion on AZR RKid?

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Do you have an opinion on AZR RKid?

I'd also like to know your opinion on this stock richkid, also tech/a mabey if your willing?

Thanks guys.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Do you have an opinion on AZR RKid?

Apologies for the delay in responding folks, just read the post. My view hasn't changed since my posts last month, also see the June stock comp entry thread (AZR is my comp pick). Basically looks like some support around 19c. It's done this before, see last year's head and shoulders pattern. Could go lower, I expect a rise into the end of the month. Just my views, have been wrong on AZR before.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

A brief update for anyone waiting in the wings with popcorn watching this soap opera.

The West Australian ran an article today which included comments from Ian and repeated the end-of-month deadline for the BFS. At the risk of poorly paraphrasing the report, he said that Koolan was a great 'company starter' not necessarily a 'company maker'. He also said the BFS had a 95% probability to be very good for the company and shareholders. He's commited to meeting targets for first sale for July next year and has said that initial production will be met from the Satellite deposits. It will take 3 years before the main pit is bought online to full capacity (due to the draining etc that is required) for a resulting output of 4mtpa.

Also, I saw this from Huntleys.

$150m or $0.29 per share NPV is based on the production of 41Mt of iron ore at 4Mtpa over an 11-year life. Assumptions include a 10% discount rate, a long term iron ore fines price of US37c per dry metric tonne unit (dmtu), a lump price of US45.9c per dmtu, an exchange rate of A$1 = US$0.72 and a 30:70 lump/fines split. This equates roughly to A$35/t of ore compared to AZR's prefeasibility assumption of A$30/t for 100% fines. Capital costs for the expanded 4Mtpa case are estimated at $110m, almost double the $60m PFS estimate for the 2Mtpa case. We have increased operating costs by 5% to A$21/t, reflecting higher input costs; read oil, labour and materials; partially offset by economies of scale.

Long term EBITDA and NPAT are forecast at $55.0m and $29.9m respectively. Prospective diluted earnings per share and dividends of 6.1c and 3.0c per year could support a doubling of the share price within two years based on peer multiples.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

A brief update for anyone waiting in the wings with popcorn watching this soap opera.

The West Australian ran an article today which included comments from Ian and repeated the end-of-month deadline for the BFS. At the risk of poorly paraphrasing the report, he said that Koolan was a great 'company starter' not necessarily a 'company maker'. He also said the BFS had a 95% probability to be very good for the company and shareholders. He's commited to meeting targets for first sale for July next year and has said that initial production will be met from the Satellite deposits. It will take 3 years before the main pit is bought online to full capacity (due to the draining etc that is required) for a resulting output of 4mtpa.

Also, I saw this from Huntleys.

Thanks very much for that Doc, draining the pit fast seems to be a big ask. Let's hope the input costs don't go up. Burston's reputation will be at stake if he gives it a 95% chance but it augers well. Dividends would be nice but it's far off.

Noticed that volumes are still low but the sideways pattern has got a bit stronger. I'm expecting higher moves in the next week and then the fireworks the week after- should be some daytraders jumping in. Also noted that the dodgy Bulletin speculator column was tipping entry into AZR at 19c two weeks ago.

Time for a pop corn top up before the action starts...

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Thanks very much for that Doc, draining the pit fast seems to be a big ask. Let's hope the input costs don't go up. Burston's reputation will be at stake if he gives it a 95% chance but it augers well. Dividends would be nice but it's far off.

Noticed that volumes are still low but the sideways pattern has got a bit stronger. I'm expecting higher moves in the next week and then the fireworks the week after- should be some daytraders jumping in. Also noted that the dodgy Bulletin speculator column was tipping entry into AZR at 19c two weeks ago.

Time for a pop corn top up before the action starts...

Whats happening the week after richkid?, something significant i hope?

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Whats happening the week after richkid?, something significant i hope?

Please see my earlier posts and doc's latest, I was referring to the release of the bfs, prices normally shoot up for AZR before anncts, that's all. Nothign is guaranteed but people have been waiting for it for awhile.

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Please see my earlier posts and doc's latest, I was referring to the release of the bfs, prices normally shoot up for AZR before anncts, that's all. Nothign is guaranteed but people have been waiting for it for awhile.

Ok, so the bfs is coming up. What is the anticipated result? From anyone at all im talking about. Has the director hinted at all to the possibility of it being extremely good or not so great...? Thanks