Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AZR - Aztec Resources

Jump to new
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

AZR seems to be holding up a bit stronger than expected, thought it may settle abit. Nice to see.
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Buy recommendation in The Age this weekend had targets of 30c and then 50c for AZR.
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

doctorj said:
Buy recommendation in The Age this weekend had targets of 30c and then 50c for AZR.
Click to expand...

Geez Doc, you sure have your ear to the ground, that is good news to hear as punters can't get enough of these stocks atm and it'll keep AZR up (only risk is added volatility when people who buy off newspaper tips jump in), I wonder where they got the 50c from? Do you recall the name of the columnist that tipped it? Usually the columnists get their tips from tipsheets or brokers (or just plain rumour).

I found this in The Age about AZR and others resources co's but no ref to a target price:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/Barry...the-spoilt-brat/2005/02/06/1107625064493.html
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Latest AZR chart. Early days yet but this appears to be developing into a nice uptrend channel. A pullback of a cent or two should not surprise. If more newspapers and tipsheets start to tip this one then there may be odd spikes here and there.
 

Attachments

  • AZR mar.gif
    AZR mar.gif
    8.7 KB · Views: 47
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Sellers were pretty thick all day today, any thoughts (ie. TA) regarding AZR's near term future?
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

doctorj said:
Sellers were pretty thick all day today, any thoughts (ie. TA) regarding AZR's near term future?
Click to expand...

Looks like we were posting around the same time doc! Any views on my observations above on the chart? Buy depth would suggest a small decline.
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Pretty normal trend developement.
Higher highs and higher lows.
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

What a morning!

Up 2.5cps on the back of nearly 15million traded! And that's just the first hour...
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Looks like AZR is leaking news- motoring towards 30c, probably an incorporation of the resource upgrade and iron ore price hike finally being reflected in the sp. Remember that the old (over one year ago) sp valuation by the brokers at about 23c was before the iron ore price rises and before any definite resource upgrade upside. Might be further entries for newcomers once it settles on the lower side of the channel again.

Are you holding on to your seat Doc? I know this would have got you excited ; ) I didn't expect it to fire up so soon. But as Tech says, it is just normal movement for a stock that is trending this way. Let's see how the volumes hold. Currently at 28c (10c above where most of us here entered).
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Sitting back and watching the show and planning that trip to -really- run with the bulls in Spain!

In all seriousness though, it's not going to suprise me to see AZR as a 60-70cps company, with more upside if the resource upgrade is a serious one (ie. in the realm of the rumour).
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

doctorj said:
Sitting back and watching the show and planning that trip to -really- run with the bulls in Spain!

In all seriousness though, it's not going to suprise me to see AZR as a 60-70cps company, with more upside if the resource upgrade is a serious one (ie. in the realm of the rumour).
Click to expand...

Doc,
Are you referring to the estimated 50% upgrade? News should come through before long judging by the volumes (AZR normally vol spikes before an annct). The real upside is in the relatively unexplored areas on Koolan. I'm not good at number crunching so I don't know when it'll justify a 60c+ valuation but I know it'll get there if it goes like this. Remember it still hasn't started producing anthing so we have to watch the charts carefully.

BHP did a good job of flooding the pit and destroying ('dismantling') the jetty and infrastructure or they'd be producing by now. Also heard that BHP is expecting an 100% increase in iron ore prices, they are holding out for that figure. Might get 90%- just my guess. A lot is upto Burston now, he's got to get the best price, the higher BHP goes the higher Burston can go.

PS I'm also in FXR (Fox Resources, same MD as AZR), might be another goer, similar shareholders too. Not a tip as such, more a technical story after sp dilution. I started a thread on it, let me know if you've heard any news in the FXR thread (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=8401#post8401.)
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Well, up to 30c recently, near vertical climb for AZR and still more news to come. Looks like the major action is due for April/May going by the indication in the recent annct. Let's see if they can get that resource upgrade out this month, they have lots of time to do the maths. When AZR becomes a producer I am guessing price will be quite a lot higher by the end of the year, slowly moving out of the 'speccie' category.

Nice spiral at present on good trajectory.
 

Attachments

  • azr_ax15sep04_to_18mar05.png
    azr_ax15sep04_to_18mar05.png
    5.7 KB · Views: 73
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

AZR is rumoured to make an appearence in the April edition of Shares Mag. I'm also lead to believe that 'Resource Stocks Magazine' has an article on Aztec in circulation at the moment that touts it as a potential takeover target.
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

So if there is a potential take over, will this see a rise in share price? if so before or after?
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Normally before a deal is done.
and normally only to around the figure offered.

Of co**** after the take over its a little difficult for it to rise as its no longer there!

Rule of thumb is that which is being taken over generally rises and that doing the taking over generally moves up or down to the extent the market percieves the takeover will benefit or hinder the parent co.
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

hi guys(and girls)

so is it tooo late?, or is this bussiness about to boom?

enjoy the threads and it's good to have a lot of people doing research i would think of,

appreciate any tips

gav
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

BDB,
Geez! Thanks for the info but I'm glad the chart was what I was relying on together with Ian Burston's reputation and the fundamentals (ignoring personal history of some management). I can't believe none of the people you mention have tried to sue you for defamation?? Or is it all true?

I'm always interested in different perspectives so keep it coming, provided it has a factual bases and is constructive. Might also be good if you cut and pasted the info rather than putting a link to it as it's only a small blurb. Also see our code of conduct at foot of this page just near the paypal link.
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Courtesy of Shares Mag and some chap called Herger.

Share Mag said:
BY Tim Treadgold, Tim Treadgold is a Perth-based business journalist who has written for BRW and Shares magazines since they were founded. He studied geology but switched to journalism in 1969 during the Poseidon nickel boom.

Hard as (high-grade) nails

Apart from uranium, it is hard to find a mineral that fits the description of flavour-of-the-month better than iron ore. So strong is the demand, and so hard are the company spruikers working, that it has even prompted humorous comments from resource industry leaders such as BHP Billiton boss Chip Goodyear, saying that you only had to chuck a bag of rusty nails over your fence and within a week your neighbour would declare his backyard an iron ore mine.

Goodyear's joke aside, the reality of iron ore today is that it falls into the hot, hot, hot category, thanks to surging Chinese demand, which delivered a 71.5% price rise for ore delivered after April 1. For market leaders like BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto that means their profit margin on iron ore has risen sharply, and for small companies wanting to enter the market there could never be a better time.

This is terrific news for big name players like Andrew Forrest and his Fortescue Metals Group, and it is equally good news for smaller fry like Mt Gibson, Midwest and the stock that has done its best at avoiding publicity, Aztec Resources.

Unlike some of its bigger rivals, the sales spiel of Aztec is simplicity itself. It knows it has an iron ore mine because it is essentially reworking an old BHP Billiton mine on Koolan Island in the far north of Western Australia, in much the same way that Portman is re-working another ex-BHP Billiton mine in the south of WA at Koolyanobbing.

The big difference is that Aztec is yet to restart production, but that is shaping as a formality because demand for its high-grade ore is so strong that it has pre-sold its start-up target of two million tonnes a year for the next 15 years. The game now, backed by a vigorous exploration program, is to expand the annual export target to three million tonnes.

Assuming Aztec gets about $78 a tonne for its ore, a price similar to that won in the recent price settlement negotiated by Rio Tinto, that means annual sales at two million tonnes will be valued at $156 million. On a 10% profit margin, that infers an annual profit of $15.6 million, which, at a 12-times earnings multiples, values Aztec at $187 million.

That number crunching exercise is largely for illustration only, because no one yet knows the exact iron ore sales price, or Aztec's profit margin. What is almost certain, however, is that the 10% profit assumption is miles off the mark because the big boys of iron are working at closer to a 50% profit margin, so great has been the increase in iron ore prices.

Potential investors can amuse themselves by factoring in alternative profit margins, and varying tonnages, but whichever way they go, they soon discover that Aztec looks to be seriously cheap at its latest price of about 24 ¢, which values the stock at $117 million.
Click to expand...
 
Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

doctorj said:
Courtesy of Shares Mag and some chap called Herger.
Click to expand...

That said. What is everyone elses predictions from this point on?
I think mabey 60-70cps is a bit low for the forecast.
 

Similar threads

RichKid
FXR - Fox Resources
9 10 11
Replies
201
Views
36K
springhill
springhill
P
RCO - Royalco Resources
2 3
Replies
59
Views
15K
System
System
Top