AZR - Aztec Resources

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Finally something happenning here. I was beginning to consider selling out and shifting to action elsewhere.

Two small parcels of shares totalling 13000 went today, either side of 640,000 shares going at 20.5. Not sure what it means yet. Why take only a few thousand dollars worth half a cent higher than what its been trading at for days? Inexperienced Commsec types? Or someone trying to rattle the cage?

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

About 108k shares went for 0.21 and the it managed to close at the daily high on a volume of 2,400,000.

Any thoughts on this from the enlightened amongst us, or is my inclination to find volitility in the short term a move I should make?

 

[tech/a]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

technically AZR seems to have found a bottom at 19c and this thrust to 21c looks like the correction is over.
Any trading above the last high will be very positive and any trading below 19c will mean that Im wrong.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Up and down to be expected, if no news in the next week or two I expect it to go lower into late teens.
Wish these iron ore price negoatiations didn't take as long, I hope Burston is a top class negotiator! Relations are supposed to be tense between iron ore producers and steel makers.
Resource upgrade may be announced in the interim, any spike in volume will foretell an annct imo.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Was going to post this in another thread, but didn't think it was warrented.

Shamelessly stolen from a well informed chap at Sharescene.

435 words
22 February 2005
19:03
Dow Jones International News
English
© 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Nippon Steel Corp. (5401.TO) said Tuesday it has agreed to a 71.5% hike in the price of iron ore it will buy from Companhia Vale do Rio Doce SA (RIO) in the fiscal year starting April.

Japan's largest steel maker said it will pay between $36.80 and $37.36 per dry metric ton, up 71.5% from the price it has been paying this fiscal year through March. [ 22-02-05 0823GMT ]

The jump in prices for Rio Doce's iron ore means Nippon Steel and other Japanese steel makers may have to accept similar price hikes in negotiations with Australian producers.

Nippon Steel said that based on the latest agreement with Rio Doce, it will continue making efforts to reach an agreement on prices in talks with Rio Tinto Ltd.'s (RTP) unit Hamersley and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP).

The 71.5% rise in Brazilian iron ore prices is larger than the 50% increase reported by local media since late last year.

The leap in price for next fiscal year, fueled by robust steel demand particularly in China, may be damaging to steel makers worldwide if they can't fully pass on the increased raw materials costs to their own prices for steel sheet and plate products.

Steel makers are also grappling with rising coal prices and freight charges.

Japan's top three steel makers, including JFE Holdings Inc. (5411.TO) and Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd. (5405.TO), agreed late last year to a rise in coking coal prices for next fiscal year. They will pay around $125 per metric ton after their talks with one of their main suppliers, BMA, a joint venture of BHP Billiton and Mitsubishi Corp. (5058.TO). That is a painful hike from $50-$60 a ton they have been paying this fiscal year.

After agreeing on their raw materials prices, the steel makers will start full-fledged price negotiations with major steel users such as auto makers and shipbuilders. If they raise their steel product prices again, fiscal 2005 would be the fourth consecutive year that Japanese steel makers have done so.

Nippon Steel has estimated that the expected increases in raw material prices and shipping costs will translate into a Y1 trillion jump in production costs across Japan's steel-making industry the next fiscal year, adding to the Y700 billion increase estimated for this fiscal year.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Doc, shameless or not that's a great grab of info! Should be reflected in iron ore stocks and puts pressure on Burston to get a good price. Bad news for iron ore consumers like BSL but not for OST as they produce their own iron ore (see relevant threads for more info). BSL has pricing power though to pass on costs.

My understanding is that any Brazilian hike will be less than what Aussie producers will be able to squeeze out (ie Aussies will get a 70%++ hike if we're good at negotiating). What do you all think?

(PS. correct me if I'm wrong but do the Japanese use alphanumeric codes for their stocks, looks like a number followed by abbreviation for Tokyo stock exchange?)

 

[crocdee]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

hi all
looks like AZR is off again for another little run
market depth quite strong

regards croc

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Tomorrow or Friday would be a damn good time to come out with the BFS, give a little more fuel to the run as I doubt it will get higher than 0.23 on the back of Iron Ore prices.

Interesting is Portman, I bought a small line of 3000 shares yesterday on hearing CSFB were still buying, they're up 6% so far this morning with decent buy depth. Perhaps another TO offer in the works?

 

[tech/a]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

PMM yes have held for many months nice to see a move again.
One of the good points of long term holding caught the gap up as well.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Well, it looks as though something happened after 2pm EDST yesterday. Great price action for those that hold, including what is a rumour of a u bidder buying up at 24c.

It disappeared at about close, but it should provide a fairly reasonable floor to the price in the short term while we continue to wait for the BFS and upgrade.

All up a good week for those that hold while we continue to wait out the period of time before mining starts.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

8.5 mill shares traded, peak at 25.5 - could be another good week.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

An article on iron ore price negotiations, imo the recent price rise in AZR is due to the iron ore price hike, hence probable resource upgrade and BFS completion not built in yet (BFS needs to be positive re costs and timeframe for AZR to really fly). Wonder if AZR will be forced to undercut the big players? Let's hope BHP gets the premium it wants for the freight advantage as this would flow on to other Aussie miners. This frenzy is not going to last more than a year or two so we might as well reap the profits while we can. The sooner AZR goes into production the better, we're lucky the work started months ago.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12372237%5E643,00.html

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

A solid day today, might even be an all time high for volume (haven't checked yet). If the pattern holds (ie no new news in the next week or so) then it'll fall back a bit to the low 20s and then rebound. A nice trend support line developing since the breakout, nice angle too.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Has anyone been able to read the latest (feb 05) Grange Securities report on AZR? It's in pdf on the AZR website but it doesn't open. If anyone else has any luck let me know as it may be my computer/software. (I'm able to open other Acrobat docs but not that one). If it's a universal problem then AZR we'll have to fix it. I'm interested in the new figures Grange may have come up with for AZR since it's reached their previous target.

http://www.aztecresources.com.au (click on 'Investor' and then 'broker/presentations')

Please let me know if anyone is able to read the report.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Works normally here.

Check you are using the latest version of adobe reader (www.adobe.com)

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

Works normally here.

Check you are using the latest version of adobe reader (www.adobe.com)

Thanks doc, I've actually got the newest version- some people say the older versions are more reliable. Might have to dowload Acrobat 6 again.

Is the report good? I'll see if I can read it tomorrow. Remember that Grange have a vested interest as they are very close to AZR and underwrite, gives us something to work with though.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

The report was very dry. It felt as though I'd read it before.

I haven't had the chance to compare it to old ones, but it was dated Jan 28 - so I may well have read it.

It lists the current at 19c and a 12month target of 31cps. It only factors in an assumed 30% rise in Ore prices and says the BFS is due March/April.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

It lists the current at 19c and a 12month target of 31cps. It only factors in an assumed 30% rise in Ore prices and says the BFS is due March/April.

Thanks doc, it's the unexpected increase in prices that has the iron ore sector alight. You can bet your bottom dollar we'll be looking well above 30c now, closer to 40c perhaps with the resource upgrade (which is near double the current AZR price, which is why I'm holding). Once it actually gets production going by the end of the year or early next year I'd say it'll be 50c plus. My view is that as other resource stocks slow on higher costs and stabilizing Chinese demand iron ore players may see more people switch into them, especially as they become producers. Remember that Aztec is still exploring the remainder of Koolan. Let's see what type of price Burston gets out of them, it doesn't have to be 71% for us to target 35c+ as even 60% will be a significant re-rating.

The good news apart from the expected resource upgrade is the imminent release of the BFS, I'd give it at least a few weeks. The Aussie dollar may go a bit lower after the next interest hike so that'll add to the attractiveness of the BFS figures. I have a feeling they'll release the upgrade close to the BFS. The biggest risks in the next 12mths are operational/construction problems as is typical for this stage of a venture.

 

[doctorj]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

From the completely unsubstantiated rumour bin (read: Hotcopper), somebody is claiming they plan to upgrade reserves by 50%, due in the next 4-6 weeks.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?

I think that is expected from previous anncts and discussion but I don't know the exact figure or when it'll be released. I'll see if I can dig up a recent presentation to that effect. I expect further upgrades over the next 12-18mths as drilling progresses.

...Doc I may not have time to dig up the estimate but I think it was either in one of the broker reports on the site or in a Burston/Co comment/annct.

I wouldn't sweat on this one, it'll be positive, only issue is how much is incorporated in the sp and how much is the market expecting. Both answers appear to be positive in view of the current sp imho.