AX1 - Accent Group

[Knobby22]

I am still finding that decisions about timing of selling are much more difficult than decisions about timing of buying!

it is hard. it has taken me years to get average at it.
Market is going to be up today it appears so it looks like that $1 will hold again.
I would want to buy lower but it may not happen.

 

[tinhat]

I don't hold this stock ATM but it's been on my radar for a potential re-entry. Check out that gap between $0.92 and $0.80. This has been a fairly volatile stock over the years and provided some good opportunities for a trade when it was on the way up.

 

[Klogg]

Waiting for the speeding ticket...

 

[Knobby22]

Yes! knew it would collapse if it went through $1. Let's see what happens tomorrow. Might hold then.

 

[Triathlete]

Let us see if $0.88 will be the low...a few months of accumulation here might be good......

 

[Muschu]

So 89 c today... I just started watching this one... Record profit announced in Feb with increased dividend and a SP decline since? I have read most of the discussion above. Any further thoughts?

 

[Triathlete]

So 89 c today... I just started watching this one... Record profit announced in Feb with increased dividend and a SP decline since? I have read most of the discussion above. Any further thoughts?

The stock has fallen through two of the strongest levels in Technical Analysis which are the 50% level of the all time high at $0.9675 and the 50% level of the all time range at $1.1225 so this indicates that the stock is weak....We can now see that there is support going back about 3 years at $0.88 which is where the stock is currently holding

Should the stock not hold this level here at $0.88 and accumulate......then a move to $0.70 is on the cards in my opinion so another 20% drop........Time will tell though....

 

[galumay]

To put the FA view, RCG is now strongly undervalued by any metrics I use. It looks like a classic misspricing by the market and if I had spare cash lying around I would be very happy to invest at current prices. I suspect negative sentiment is being driven by the belief that Amazon will be a genuine disrupter in the retail space, but there must be some other drivers for RCG as the drop in price is disproportional compared to others in the sector one would expect to be more heavily impacted.

Unless there is some significant bad news not in the public domain I would expect the gap between value and price to close quickly as future results continue to show the strength of RGC as a business.

 

[Muschu]

Thank you both for the comments.... Interesting grist for the mill

 

[Triathlete]

I have updated my RCG chart based also on the latest Fundamentals from Lincoln stock doctor...www.lincolnindicators.com.au............. 14 day free trial.

Monthly Chart:

Strategic comment.

Last Updated: 22 March 2017

The directors of HYPE DC announced their resignation as Co-CEO on 17 March 2017, with Daniel Gilbert set to remain as a non-executive director of RCG. Whilst this news came as a surprise, we are aware the resignation is on amicable terms with no suggestion of animosity between the current management team.

Regarding competitive pressures, namely Amazon, management believes the impact will be less so when compared to consumer electronic retailers like JBH and HVN. As RCG retains exclusive distribution license for various brands in the current portfolio, we believe it is well positioned to maintain a competitive moat given Amazon would still need to deal via RCG for these products.

RCG is a Star Growth Stock and Star Income Stock that suits both growth and income orientated investors looking for capital appreciation and stable distributions.

The company produced a 1H17 result that was hard to fault. Management delivered robust top line growth with strength demonstrated across most of the company's business segments. This should provide a solid foundation for further growth in FY17; even in light of a revised FY17 guidance for between $85m and $88m EBITDA.

Investors should be aware that the footwear retail market is closely tied to consumer sentiment and thus any changes to the latter could have a material impact on future sales. This risk is somewhat mitigated by RCG's premium service offering which is a point of difference from competitors in the same space.

 

[So_Cynical]

American retailers are closing stores at a record pace this year as they feel the fallout from decades of overbuilding and the rise of online shopping.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/brick-...uttering-at-a-record-pace-1492818818?mod=e2fb

What happened to the quote tags???

 

[galumay]

What happened to the quote tags???

Not sure what you are asking? BTW the WSJ story is paywalled.

 

[So_Cynical]

Not sure what you are asking? BTW the WSJ story is paywalled.

There used to be a quote button on the menu bar when posting - on the old forum.
-
WSJ story is about US bricks and mortar retailers closing at a record pace, greater than the GFC, a couple of them closing all stores and shifting to 100% online.

retail shops are in a death spiral, clothing, cheap crap (TRS), electronics, everything, its a race to destruction.

In ten years time malls will be full of service centers, gyms and child care, holistic health and online order pick up places .

 

[skc]

What happened to the quote tags???

The quotes tags are under the "+" button (between "Media" and "Save Draft").

The syntax is still the same [QUOTE ][ /QUOTE]"

In ten years time malls will be full of service centers, gyms and child care, holistic health and online order pick up places .

And show rooms / fitting rooms for products to be bought online.

 

[skc]

Unless there is some significant bad news not in the public domain I would expect the gap between value and price to close quickly as future results continue to show the strength of RGC as a business.

I don't know if there is significant bad news not in the public domain, but I think RCG is the kind of company that an astute institutional investor can gain an edge on the market by doing some of the following:
- Observe physical store activity - looking at foot traffic, staff numbers, store deliveries etc
- Observe and compare online presence (against competitors) - website hits, social media trends etc
- Conduct price checks, analyse sale frequency, marketing spend etc
- Conduct casual interviews with company/store manager/sales/suppliers/logistics providers/competitors etc

Some can be done via primary research and others may have secondary sources.

I think some brokers do some of the above on the bigger retailers - things like grocery prices are closely monitored - but RCG is probably a bit too small to attract wide coverage. Nonetheless, it's a popular stock last year for small cap managers and may be one or two institutions decide to conduct some deep investigations.

Then again, simple answer like "It's grossly mispriced" could easily be the most logical and ultimately correct answer.

 

[galumay]

Some can be done via primary research and others may have secondary sources.

Given that my nearest shoe shop of any type is about 800km away, and the road is closed due to the wet, I will have to look to secondary sources!

 

[skc]

Given that my nearest shoe shop of any type is about 800km away, and the road is closed due to the wet, I will have to look to secondary sources!

But I would walk five hundred miles
And I would walk five hundred more
Just to do my research on RCG
So I know what their sales are like
Da lat da (Da lat da), da lat da (Da lat da)
Da-da-da dun-diddle un-diddle un-diddle uh da-da
Da lat da (Da lat da), da lat da (Da lat da)
Da-da-da dun-diddle un-diddle un-diddle uh da-da

 

[galumay]

But I would walk five hundred miles
And I would walk five hundred more

Look, I would walk 500 miles, and even 500 more, but I draw the line at swimming across those flooded, croc infested, rivers! No business, even RCG is worth that!

 

[Knobby22]

OK, I'm in at 88c.
Just looks oversold to me. Probably sell at around $1.30 in 5 months if it all works out.

 

[VSntchr]

Ausbill has an approx 4.3% weighting in RCG. The departure of the lead managers there could result in portfolio rebalancing/culling. Just something to keep in mind as it could explain an otherwise "random" move.