AWE - AWE Limited

[dutchie]

The only reason a director would sell his shares in a company is if he thought he could get a better return on his money somewhere else.

So AWE may still have a good return for most punters but the director thinks he can do better elsewhere (i.e. AWE 20% return - new venture 30% return). Or he does know something negative and money in the bank will give a better return.

Cheers

Dutchie

 

[Casual_Investor]

Cheers Y/N I posted a couple of early posts a week or two back, and tried to sound like i knew what I was talking about........then I thought to myself who am I kidding.....Compared to most investors I probably know Jack Sh*t (You know Jack Daniels brother!!) But I am learning very quickly (when you lose as much as I did a few weeks back (borrowed from the bank as well ) you have to learn fast! I am actually in massive debt at the moment but I think my fundamentals for trading are improving and I wont let it beat me cause I'm a stubborn basket (don't have to bleep basket but if I'd said barsta*d that would be a different story)
Seriously I have received some great encouragement through this forum, but when someone tells me thay appreciate my honesty, that is pretty bl**dy cool cause I like to think of myself as a fair dinkum average bloke. I dont care if I dont make a fortune anymore, but I would love to earn back what I lost so I can start again (gunna be tough with very little capital though) As I've said in other posts....at least my wife didn't divorce me (I think she even still likes me!!..........go figure that one out) Anyway I'll raise a glass to you tonight Y/N cause you sound like a top bloke (It'll be a bottle not a glass....hope that's OK?) Cheers.

i think he was referring to nizar about the honesty thing hehe

BUT.. i think your honest (ly in debt)!!! hehehe jkz

 

[Casual_Investor]

The only reason a director would sell his shares in a company is if he thought he could get a better return on his money somewhere else.

So AWE may still have a good return for most punters but the director thinks he can do better elsewhere (i.e. AWE 20% return - new venture 30% return). Or he does know something negative and money in the bank will give a better return.

Cheers

Dutchie

yes i agree. well mabe we should track what he does with this money he freed . If he just chucks it in a bank and leaves it there then id be worried hehe.

 

[barney]

i think he was referring to nizar about the honesty thing hehe

BUT.. i think your honest (ly in debt)!!! hehehe jkz

Yeah OK!!! Just when I thought someone was giving me a wrap I go and make a goose out of myself (wont be the last time either!!)...... Obviously been drinking too many of those bottles I mentioned........Cruel about the debt but. Anyway..........because I'm such an honest guy (just ask me) I dont mind telling everyone about my poor investment decisions.....AND I bet Y/N is a top bloke as well . Sorry about the mixup..............geez........ and I thought somebody apart from my wife actually liked me.........back to the doghouse...........now where was that bottle of beer???

 

[youngneil]

barney

after reading your post i felt a bit embarassed... so i quickly went through some of your previous posts here... and am proud to admit that my comment to nizar now extends to you too.

its refreshing to read posts by people who speak their mind and admit to their mistakes... and most importantly are brave enough to ask questions

there are too many on various forums who posts/lie about their successes just for some credibility... but those who have read their posts long enough come to learn who they are and realise very quicky how annoying it is

we all know very little in this game... so forums like these allow us little blokes to share additional info that we may have heard from our neighbour or taxi driver... gives us all an advantage that the big institutions inherently get... and the more honest people we have posting the better!

please place imho where appropiate.

regards

youngneil

 

[barney]

barney

after reading your post i felt a bit embarassed... so i quickly went through some of your previous posts here... and am proud to admit that my comment to nizar now extends to you too.

its refreshing to read posts by people who speak their mind and admit to their mistakes... and most importantly are brave enough to ask questions

there are too many on various forums who posts/lie about their successes just for some credibility... but those who have read their posts long enough come to learn who they are and realise very quicky how annoying it is

we all know very little in this game... so forums like these allow us little blokes to share additional info that we may have heard from our neighbour or taxi driver... gives us all an advantage that the big institutions inherently get... and the more honest people we have posting the better!

please place imho where appropiate.

regards

youngneil

Hey Y/Neil, If you felt embarrassed, imagine how I felt (X10)

Honestly, I felt that stupid that I thought I won't post anymore. I'm green I admit it (even at forum posting) I only started investing to try and make some extra cash to help put my daughter through Uni (she's probably about Casual Investors age (Blonde hair Blue eyes 36 24 34 but only 5 ft 2 ; gorgeous like her mother ......she was Dux of her school.........bit smarter than the old man!!!!) I stuffed up bigtime and am now "on a mission" to learn whatever I can to turn it around.

Thanks for the encouragement Y/N (I really do appreciate it) Geez there are some top blokes on this forum!

This is my 2 worth for everyone out there. I'm getting older and my health 'aint what it used to be but I'll tell everyone this......Share trading, like life, is just a game......treat it seriously, but don't forget what is really important in life, and that is your family and friends (particularly family).

Good luck to everyone........geez, I sound like its my funeral......... hmm, what is that pain in my chest?? Cheers , Barney. (still smiling)

 

[nizar]

The only reason a director would sell his shares in a company is if he thought he could get a better return on his money somewhere else.

So AWE may still have a good return for most punters but the director thinks he can do better elsewhere (i.e. AWE 20% return - new venture 30% return). Or he does know something negative and money in the bank will give a better return.

Cheers

Dutchie

Dutchie

How about house/car/holiday/caravan/boatclear debt/etc/etc/etc or my favourite, "personal reasons"
Several several reasons to sell...

I know of an example earlier in the year, of i think it was BTV, a director's holding announcement was released to the asx (showing a certain director sold heaps of shares) shortly after a HUGE gain... Obviously many people would have been upset seeing this, and they emailed the director, he wrote back saying that the shares had actually been sold the day before and so the joke was on him as he actually lost money, and he said that he still holds heaps through his investment holding company and super (and verified this) and said he only made a small amount of money, and missed out on the gains! And then he said he was very confident in the long-term prospects of the company (which is why he still holds some), its just that he needed the funds for "personal reasons"

Also i remember sum1 i think on this forum said he will sell AEX when it gets to 10c (LOL, hes still waiting) and then someone said "is there not much upside after 10c" and the reply was, NO, i juz wanna buy a boat! Directors are just like normal people and though the impression is that they have heaps of cash (and wouldnt need to sell shares to buy things, they DO), and plus, some of the (more) successful people on this forum i reckon would give them a good run in terms of Net Worth

But they only buy if they think/know they will make money, and that the sp will go up, not for any other reason. If u find another reason, let me know, and let Peter Lynch know as well, coz thats wat i read in his best-seller book....

 

[Casual_Investor]

awe getting smashed.. like all other energy stocks.
Now something is telling me now is a really good time to buy IF
- oil prices arent gonna continue to fall
- director selling had nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company

 

[Casual_Investor]

just topped up at 2.95.. couldnt resist the cheapness. This stock should go back up past 3.20 + very soon imo.

 

[matthass]

Hi All,

looking at the charts of Light crude/AWE they seem to follow each other pretty well (monthly). Light crude has lost value (value?) over the last month, AWE has now lost in line with the oil price.

-Can it be that the 'director debacle' sparked a needed price correction?
-Or, did all their brains walk out the door with him?
-Or, has it dropped too much? (AWE is ca. 10% below its normal trading range in relation to light crude).

Someone got a crystal ball to tell us what oil is going to do!?

Regards to all!

 

[Casual_Investor]

Well the director took his money out... He KNEW something was in the air...

I should have known. If you look at all oil stock over the past few months and look at AWE, youll have found that awe was going aginst the trend (staying steady or rising despite the drop in the XEJ) Now the massive correction has dropped aWE back in line with the XEJ.

If oil prices go back up and providing we get some good news about AWE's investment in New Zealand, it is in my opinion that this stock will run hard.

 

[matthass]

Hi all,

just thinking. A director selling his shares is a signal to the market (perhaps -ve). In order for the SP to jump back up to its previous level, we/they need a signal...

What is a definite positive signal though?

New director, oil price, news? I believe this perceived loss in value (or increase in risk/ loss in trust) can only be 'fixed' through time. New directors need to prove themselves, quarterly reports report only past events etc.

Therefore I think that there will only be a measured SP increase in-line with sales/revenues. (I still bought some more...!)

Best of luck to all.

 

[Casual_Investor]

i topped up too mate. It seems to be heading in the right direction... at least for now.

Two areas will commence drilling starting in two weeks (cutter then hector) followed by continuous drilling drilling in New Zealand right into Xmas and beyond so if we get good news from those activity reports as well as a steadying or even better an increase in oil, ALL the factors that may have contributed to its drop from 3.30 have been proven to be incorrect.

AWE uses $50 a barrel as the benchmark for its forecasts anyway so we are way above that and I dont think oil will drop below that. So all we need is good news from all the planned drillings!

Ohh.. and the director always planned to leave after he had heped fund one of the previous projects.

This company has not only begun to generate big revenue but has a very ambitious drilling campaign ahead. Its all upwards from here!!! (hopefully)

 

[michael_selway]

i topped up too mate. It seems to be heading in the right direction... at least for now.

Two areas will commence drilling starting in two weeks (cutter then hector) followed by continuous drilling drilling in New Zealand right into Xmas and beyond so if we get good news from those activity reports as well as a steadying or even better an increase in oil, ALL the factors that may have contributed to its drop from 3.30 have been proven to be incorrect.

AWE uses $50 a barrel as the benchmark for its forecasts anyway so we are way above that and I dont think oil will drop below that. So all we need is good news from all the planned drillings!

Ohh.. and the director always planned to leave after he had heped fund one of the previous projects.

This company has not only begun to generate big revenue but has a very ambitious drilling campaign ahead. Its all upwards from here!!! (hopefully)

Forward Terminal PE of 10 = $3.30

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 0.5 21.4 47.4 33.1
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

 

[Casual_Investor]

Hey folks.. Worth a read for those on AWE. Some exciting months ahead for this company


Crown Minerals Thursday, September 28, 2006


Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd's nine well drilling program offshore New Zealand is expected to start next month and includes some large potential oil prospects.
The proposed order of drilling is as follows;

1) Cutter-1 PEP 38 259. Exploration well targeting the Late Cretaceous Shag Point Formation – target potential 80mmbbls. Operator Tap New Zealand (AWE 25%)

2) Hector-1 PEP 38 483. Exploration well targeting Kapuni Group 'C' sands (Mangahewa Formation equivalent, late Middle Eocene, NZ stage Ab, containing bulk of the Maui and Pohokura field reserves) – target potential >100mmbbls. Hector-1 is the first of four offshore Taranaki exploration wells – location delineated from 3D acquired during April 2005. Operator AWE (44.317%)

3) Tui oil field development well-1. Kapuni Group 'F' sand target. Operator AWE (42.5%)

4) Tui oil field development well-2. Kapuni Group 'F' sand target. Operator AWE (42.5%)

5) Tui oil field development well-3. Kapuni Group 'F' sand target. Operator AWE (42.5%)

6) Tui oil field development well-4. Kapuni Group 'F' sand target. Operator AWE (42.5%)

7) Tieke-1 PMP 38158. Exploration well Targeting Kapuni Group 'F' sands (Farewell Formation equivalent, Paleocene, containing reserves being targeted by the four Tui oil field development wells and oil reserves already produced from the Maui B platform) – target potential 15mmbbls. Operator AWE (42.5%)

8) Taranui-1 PMP 38158. Exploration well Targeting Kapuni Group 'F' sands - target potential 5-15mmbbls. Operator AWE (42.5%)

9) West Cape-1 PEP 38 481. Exploration well targeting Kapuni Group 'C' sands – target potential >100mmbbls. Operator AWE (42.5%)

AWE will be operator for four offshore exploration wells as well as the four Tui oil field development wells ”” all on the oil-prone western platform of the Taranaki Basin. They will all be drilled by the semi-submersible rig Ocean Patriot. This program will be the largest in AWE's 9-year history.

In addition AWE will be a participant in the Cutter-1 well to be drilled off Canterbury by the Ocean Patriot from next month. Cutter-1 has prospect potential of 70-80 million barrels, AWE says. The main exploration risks are reservoir quality and whether the prospect is charged with oil.

The Hector-1 exploration well in PEP 38483 is currently scheduled to be drilled in November-December. However, exact timing of Hector-1 will be determined by the higher priority activities for the Tui project. The AWE presentation says the Hector prospect, which will target the Kapuni Group C sands, has a prospect potential of over 100 million barrels. AWE says the Hector prospect has good structure, reservoir, source and top seal in a proven oil basin. The main risk for exploration is migration of the oil and fault seal. AWE has a 44.3% interest in PEP 38483, Mitsui E&P New Zealand Ltd 22.7%, NZOG 18.9% and Pac Pacific Petroleum NL 14.1%.

Four development wells will then be drilled by AWE in late 2006-early 2007 into the Tui, Amokura and Pateke oil fields, all in the F sands, which will be linked to the FPSO vessel Umuroa in the Tui oil project in PMP 38158.

Two exploration wells to be drilled inside the Tui mining permit area Tieke-1 and Taranui-1 would have a short tie-back distance to the FPSO if oil is found, which makes the economics very attractive. Both wells will again target are scheduled to be drilled in the second quarter of 2007.

The Tieke prospect has a prospect potential of 15 million barrels of oil and Taranui between 5 and 15 million barrels.

Another well with a large potential prospect is West Cape-1 in PEP 38481, directly west of the Tui Area fields. AWE says the F sands West Cape prospect in PEP 38481 has prospect potential of over 100 million barrels.

The West Cape prospect has a good reservoir, structure and top seal in a proven oil basin. In the AWE presentation it is noted that the main exploration risk is whether there is a seal at the fault that runs through the prospect. West Cape-1 is currently scheduled to be the last well drilled in the campaign in mid-2007.

AWE holds a 40% interest in PEP 38481, Energy Western Holdings Ltd (Shell) 20%, OMV New Zealand Ltd 25% and Todd Petroleum Mining Ltd 15%.

Meanwhile AWE has reported that a major shareholder New Zealand Overseas Petroleum (Holdings) Ltd (part of the Bermuda-based Transworld Group) has sold its entire 11% shareholding in AWE. The AWE shares were issued to Transworld in early 2006 in exchange for a 22.5% stake in the Tui oil field.

Transworld is owned by Mr. John Deuss, for six months a director of AWE who has now resigned from board of the Sydney company.

The former Transworld shares of AWE have been taken up by institutional investors who now hold approximately 65% of AWE shares, with the board and management retaining approximately 4%.

This program constitutes the largest offshore exploration drilling campaign since 2004 when Amokura-1, Pukeko-1, Kiwi-1, Pateke-1, Pateke-2, Takapou-1 and Tawatawa-1 were drilled, largely by the same joint venture participants.

 

[Casual_Investor]

Its finally on a run! Beware my friends... 3.20 next stop.

 

[Ken]

A broker's rating is a target price of 3.98, and is now on there recommendation list as a strong buy.

they also expect some signifcant exploration within the next few months.

 

[Seneca60BC]

Hi Guys

For the record I am also in AWE - actually I initially bought this stock at $1.50 and sold out at $2.00 - what an idiot i know - anyway I still see potential here bought again at $3.10 -

I think there is a 20% chance of the Cutter-1 producing - lets see in 2 weeks hehe - alot of upside with another 6 wells to be drilled in the next 12 months -

Casual_Investor are you still in with AWE?

Regards

 

[Casual_Investor]

Hi Guys

For the record I am also in AWE - actually I initially bought this stock at $1.50 and sold out at $2.00 - what an idiot i know - anyway I still see potential here bought again at $3.10 -

I think there is a 20% chance of the Cutter-1 producing - lets see in 2 weeks hehe - alot of upside with another 6 wells to be drilled in the next 12 months -

Casual_Investor are you still in with AWE?

Regards

hi seneca,

yep certainly am in with awe. Have more shares than I actually planned to.. but all is good. Heavily bought when it was drifting between 2.90 - 2.95. Initially bought at 3.02 earlier this year.

Initial target is 3.50 where I beleieve is the fair downside valuation of this company.. with upside easily being $6+. imo I still think this stock is majorly undervalued.

ps: If cutter comes through that would be a huge bonus.. we could see this stock shoot above 3.60 in a day just on that news... however.. I wouldnt be betting on it.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

AWE ..... looking for a rash of negative news
over the next few weeks, before a good start
to 2007 .....

22112006 ..... negative cycle ... finances?

28112006 ..... negative light on AWE

12122006 ..... negative news expected here.

14122006 ..... short, aggressive slide here

15122006 ..... positive cycle ... finances???

18-21122006 ..... strong negative cycle .....

27122006 ..... positive spotlight on AWE.

02012007 ..... positive news expected here.

happy days

yogi



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