AWE - AWE Limited

[RichKid]

20% in a week for a mid cap share is abit too strong for me.

should i take profit or hold..... . .(we ask that question everyday dont we

EW might provide a rough guide, this is just a general comment on it from a monthly view, if oil takes off things may change.

 

[nizar]

20% in a week for a mid cap share is abit too strong for me.

should i take profit or hold..... . .(we ask that question everyday dont we

this company will see serious earnings growth from now until 2008

look how many projects due to start production this year or next year

for me, this is a long termer; but nothing wrong with taking profits; 20% in a week is nice

 

[RichKid]

this company will see serious earnings growth from now until 2008

look how many projects due to start production this year or next year

for me, this is a long termer; but nothing wrong with taking profits; 20% in a week is nice

The problems with earnings forecasts and other things in relation to the sp is that it could all be built in to the sp already or people may all just decide to take profits at once or very many other things could happen. Hence the benefit for us chartists of just reading the charts.

btw I've been using the wrong retracement numbers- chose linear instead of fib, didn't notice it til it was too late. Today was a very poor day, lots of selling continued after I posted the chart, I can see a minor impulsive count over the last few weeks, but if prices drop a bit lower (ie w4 goes below w1) then that count is gone too.

 

[RichKid]

.........
btw I've been using the wrong retracement numbers- chose linear instead of fib, didn't notice it til it was too late. .......

If anyone is confused about what I'm referring to it's my mistake- I'd used those numbers on another chart (not posted), only just realised I'd attached a different one.

Most oil stocks had a bad run today, due to oil falling imo, interesting to see how AWE goes, if this is the end of the cycle then there's a lot of retracing to do, 50%- 61.8% of the current cycle for a deep wave 2 retracement, although in this bullmarket we are unlikely to see that imo, maybe 31.8% of the total height. The previous degree wave 4 is the normal target from what I've seen in the textbooks. All speculation atm, let's see what the price does this month.

 

[RichKid]

I think the poor week has tilted the odds strongly in favour of the end of the major trend, volume confirms it both on the monthly (see chart above) and daily charts, sellers are distributing stock at these higher levels in large quantities and have the upper hand by far.

 

[Nick Radge]

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.

 

[RichKid]

Thanks for the chart Nick, always glad to have an expert opinion to learn from.

This is a weekly chart I've attached, created at the same time as my monthly chart from a few days ago so it still has the old count and older prices.

The vertical lines show the time it took for wave 1 to complete, it gives you an idea of how the trend has accelerated and maybe a guide as to when to expect the next wave to complete/start. I actually don't know how to use time cycles yet, just came across the tool by accident and just left it there as a guide.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Thanks for the chart Nick, always glad to have an expert opinion to learn from.

Your opinion is good too RK. Don`t be too humble. C criticism.
The charts are good and educational. I`m an EW sceptic but am interested.
Thanks
Snake :alien2:

 

[Sean K]

Yeah, thanks RK and Nick. Your posts are making me more interested in studying EW. Not a clue at the moment. Keep them coming! Hopefully, once I get my head around it I can contribute.

 

[GreatPig]

I have a slightly different wave count to Nick's, so am hoping this is just starting a wave 5 now (but a wave 1 will also do). Probably about to get Nick's wave C though... :

Bought in Friday for $3.09 & $3.10.

Cheers,
GP

 

[Casual_Investor]

hi.
What does everyone think about the potential of AWE?

It hasnt been doing greatly as of very recently. Is it about time we see the stock on its next big rise?? Or is this the beginning of a new trend...

 

[Casual_Investor]

AWE is recently getting dumped... a low of 3.05 today :O:O

I bought this stock for 3.04 back on the 18th of a may. It was going well for a while but now has reversed its trend.

What do you ppl think is the reason for this? Is this the start of something i dont know about??

Cheers

 

[Casual_Investor]

major shareholder who was a director of AWE sold all his shares than resigned. Any thoughts on this? Fundamentals of the company remain the same but isnt it just a bit dodgy that a director would not only sell his shares but then resign point to a possibility that he knows something we dont?

 

[barney]

major shareholder who was a director of AWE sold all his shares than resigned. Any thoughts on this? Fundamentals of the company remain the same but isnt it just a bit dodgy that a director would not only sell his shares but then resign point to a possibility that he knows something we dont?

Hi C/I I am only new here so I am just guessing myself. I have not looked at AWE at all (but I will now since such a massive drop)

My only thought from a human Phsyc point of view is that it would be quite normal for a Director to sell all his stock if he had decided to resign..What I am getting at is that even though he sold his stock first, in actual fact he would have already made up his mind to resign....so we actually see his actions in the reverse order to what he actually did........Man does that make any sense ...In saying that, perhaps the market reaction to this kind of news may be an over reaction, and the stock may well be undervalued/ buying op?
PS My best friend is a Phsycologist (he invests) He tempers a lot of his decisions by factoring in human reactions etc. Who knows, maybe there IS something bad going on at AWE, but just as possible the Director may have had an affair with the bosses secretary and HAD to leave, and the Co. may still be in good shape...........I think Phsycology has a much bigger bearing on market moves than many other indicators...... Cheers

 

[jet-r]

I spoke to one of the investor relation guy from AWE on Friday. Apparently, the director made some discovery in Africa and needed the money to fund the investment. He said that there is nothing looming and his resignation is purely because of his shareholding at AWE. There is no reason for him to stay on the board when he has no shareholding in the company.

 

[Casual_Investor]

of that is the case then then for sure its a buying opp and itll go back up to 3.35 very soon

 

[nizar]

Dont take notice of director selling as it can mean SEVERAL things

But director buying only means ONE thing

 

[barney]

of that is the case then then for sure its a buying opp and itll go back up to 3.35 very soon

I agree. Nothings really changed exept for Deussy collecting a nice 40 odd million profit in a short space of time. If the sp opens around $3.10 and heads north it has to be a big buy signal. If it heads south then the reversal might take a day ot two, or there is more to it than we know; but I doubt that.....the fact that they sold the 48 million shares easily to other instotutions etc for a reported $3.20 (thats what I read) has to say the share is "cheap" at $3.10. Bare in mind I am new to this and my opinions may be a little left of centre, but commonsense tells me that the sp drop was an over reaction by the market....time will tell.

 

[youngneil]

hi barney

"cheap" is right...
actually institutions buying doesnt mean much... look at DOW and SAE as two examples that comes t mind.

if we can predict what all this means we'd all be rich! but besides the directors resignation and and share dump not much has changed fundamentally.

i suppose one way to look at it is... if the director is sensing something bad is looming, then why are all the other directors still holding?

Nizar,

with all due respect... (i really enjoy reading your posts and i think you are one of the most honest in all the forums you've posted)

directors buying can mean several things too... but perhaps not as much as them selling

regards

youngneil

 

[barney]

hi barney

"cheap" is right...
actually institutions buying doesnt mean much... look at DOW and SAE as two examples that comes t mind.

if we can predict what all this means we'd all be rich! but besides the directors resignation and and share dump not much has changed fundamentally.

i suppose one way to look at it is... if the director is sensing something bad is looming, then why are all the other directors still holding?

Nizar,

with all due respect... (i really enjoy reading your posts and i think you are one of the most honest in all the forums you've posted)

directors buying can mean several things too... but perhaps not as much as them selling

regards

youngneil

Cheers Y/N I posted a couple of early posts a week or two back, and tried to sound like i knew what I was talking about........then I thought to myself who am I kidding.....Compared to most investors I probably know Jack Sh*t (You know Jack Daniels brother!!) But I am learning very quickly (when you lose as much as I did a few weeks back (borrowed from the bank as well ) you have to learn fast! I am actually in massive debt at the moment but I think my fundamentals for trading are improving and I wont let it beat me cause I'm a stubborn basket (don't have to bleep basket but if I'd said barsta*d that would be a different story)
Seriously I have received some great encouragement through this forum, but when someone tells me thay appreciate my honesty, that is pretty bl**dy cool cause I like to think of myself as a fair dinkum average bloke. I dont care if I dont make a fortune anymore, but I would love to earn back what I lost so I can start again (gunna be tough with very little capital though) As I've said in other posts....at least my wife didn't divorce me (I think she even still likes me!!..........go figure that one out) Anyway I'll raise a glass to you tonight Y/N cause you sound like a top bloke (It'll be a bottle not a glass....hope that's OK?) Cheers.