O.K lets address both, or at least give you some random opinions.
Starting with trading.
Firstly, In relation to your thread title “Awaiting a global downturn?”
The advice that macro timing is basically dead is on the money, at least as far as predicting the Macro environment goes – it’s just too hard, too many moving parts. Traders might switch off their trading businesses when they “observe” a macro level measure like an index is trending down. Trading on observation and reaction is vastly different to trading on predicting the big picture.
So lets tick up predicting the future as a basis for taking on risk as rookie mistake 1.
The mental accounting about free carry, you demonstrate in your post is rookie mistake 2.
without trying to put you off there is penty of other mistake evident as well.
By the way, the more mistakes you get under your belt (hopefully without doing harm) the better off you will be in the long run. Make no mistake, the best traders are the ones that are best at fixing their mistakes, the things they get right, the upside, takes care of itself. So, don’t take offence when I say mistake. You have already shown an abilty to take action, learn, and pause for thought - that's exceptional qualities to move forward.
When you get right down to it, trading is either timing or stock selection. Stock selection is where you take position in a particular company based on the underlying business fundamentals. Timing, you don’t care much about the business but a lot about the price and enter and exit based on price alone. I personally prefer stock selection, but I think you would be better off learning timing, at least first. It’s less risky and the feed back loop for learning is much quicker.
I haven’t been around the forum for a while, but when I was,
@peter2 fitted the mould of a timing trader that had the gift of being able to educate and the desire to do so freely on this forum.
@Skate appears to be another one that has emerged in the same vain, their may be others I don't know. Go check out their respective threads. Natural teachers that just want to share their knowledge need and will appreciate somebody like you that wants to learn. You will be the student for a while, but it will be mutually beneficial, so go say hello and interact, I’m sure you’ll find them accommodating.
AFI is an investment type share, holding it whilst you gain some more investment knowledge shouldn’t cause you too much harm.
SPX is potentially very volatile. You’ve talked about the upside you hope for but nothing about the where or how you are going to protect against the downside if it doesn’t turn out as you wish. How you are going to protect your downside on this purchase is in my opinion the very first thing you need to concentrate on.
Nothing wrong with investing in your mortgage whilst you learn, it could arguably be the best option even if you had already gathered more knowledge on trading or investing – It is making a positive difference to your financial foundation, so don’t feel rushed that you have to take quick action.
Speaking of investing in your mortgage – Is the interest rate you are paying the best you can achieve. You have a heathy LVR that makes you attractive to lenders, especially if you are owner occupied and paying Principle and interest. When did you last put pressure on your bank? New OO P&I from the big 4 banks are around 3.3% and peripheral lenders sub 3%. Do not underrate the long-term savings on reducing your interest rate and its risk free/tax free. If you have not got a competitive rate this could be the next action after sorting out protecting against SPX downside.
I’ll come back with some more things to think about in relation to investing in future posts when I get a bit more time.