AVL - Australian Vanadium

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Australian Vanadium has been on a nice little run recently, having more than doubled in the last couple of weeks.

Some good news was announced on 9 January regarding recent and ongoing metallurgical test work at the company's Gabanintha Vanadium Project near Meekatharra in Western Australia and that appears to be what has been the impetus for the run from around 2c to 4.6c.

I'm not quite sure how to interpret the announcement of 9 January but it seems the market liked it.

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Surely, this flag has to break sooner or later.
Question is: Which Way?
Following recent news and the Quarterlies, I'm leaning towards the upside.

I'm buying. Still speccie, so tight stop applies.

 

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I don't claim expertise in VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) the way some Wyckhoff disciples do; so I invite their comments on the volume bars relative to price.
The way I look at it in the current context: Compare the January run-up in both price and volume, to the earlier one in November which, even though on a smaller scale, suggests a repetitive pattern.
After a price rally on increasing volume - which I find most reliable under any circumstances - the volume dropped off as buyers and sellers wait for the other to blink first. If the following longer candle is paired with higher than usual volume, the breakout (or breakdown if it were) can be expected to last for several more days. If it's happening on low volume only, the chances for a Head Fake are increased. (Google Head Fake in context with Bollinger Bands.)
Right now, I believe we're at a stage comparable to mid to late December. Tentatively, my money is on a high-volume breakout to the upside with a target up to 8c. If it does not go that way, I have a Plan B. For now, it's only a small bet that doesn't hurt if I have to invoke it.

 

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hmmm I misjudged the panic; thought it might close the gap for a low-low entry.
"Well Done" to all who bought ar 4c

 

[greggles]

AVL seems to be holding up OK pixel. It's back at 4.3c and looks to be recovering after hitting 3.8c soon after the open. Good support and plenty of interest. Buyers back in control now.

 

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AVL seems to be holding up OK pixel. It's back at 4.3c and looks to be recovering after hitting 3.8c soon after the open. Good support and plenty of interest. Buyers back in control now.

That's what I meant, Greggles
I thought the initial stampede would close the gap for a possible bid at 3.6 or 3.7; but buyers jumped in earlier than I had thought and stopped the slide a couple of ticks higher.
Let's w8nc what the picture looks like come Closing Auction...

 

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Seems I was right about the gap, but a day off.
Let's see whether the next assumption, today's candle signaling a bottom reversal, turns out right as well.

 

[greggles]

AVL poking its head above 5c after consolidating between 3.7c and 5c for a few months. Volume is up.

 

[greggles]

Australian Vanadium is looking like a breakout. After a brief consolidation above 5c it has surged north and is now trading at 6.6c.

Volume is up but there is no news, so perhaps there is some on the way?

 

[explod]

Vanadium (better than Lithium) looks like the next big advance for batteries, storage in particular and they are giving them a 20 year battery life. Having done a bit of research I'm feeling AVL may fit the bill. The chart looks to be priming also.

 

[jancha]

TNG much more advanced than AVL.

 

[explod]

TNG much more advanced than AVL.

You are probably correct.

Its the product that's going to drive things though.

 

[TLS]

My pick for this months stock picking comp.

Good recent announcement from drilling results. Been watching this stock for a while and think it's a cheap undervalued spec play at this price. Vanadium prices on the rise too...

 

[explod]

Agree TLS, in my view the price of Vanadium will shock people to the upside soon IMHO.

 

[$20shoes]

Explod, I dont agree. In theory you can use magnetite hosted Vanadium in batteries but in reality you cant. The cost to extract the impurities is going to be way too way too expensive for most miners. A lot of these vanadium companies show their beneficiation/processing grades, but no VRB chemist has approved their use. When they come back and say "youll have to beneficiate the crap out of this to remove impurities (we're talking a few ppmof contaminant metals) it becomes way too expensive to proceed. Your talking a few ppm of impurities to kill the dream.

 

[$20shoes]

Explod, I dont agree. In theory you can use magnetite hosted Vanadium in batteries but in reality you cant. The cost to extract the impurities is going to be way too way too expensive for most miners. A lot of these vanadium companies show their beneficiation/processing grades, but no VRB chemist has approved their use. When they come back and say "youll have to beneficiate the crap out of this to remove impurities (we're talking a few ppmof contaminant metals) it becomes way too expensive to proceed. Your talking a few ppm of impurities to kill the dream.

Anyway you won't really know if magnetite hosted V is useful until a battery manufacturer says they can use the stuff in their electrolyte and its going to cost "x" to get it pure enough to use.

 

[$20shoes]

TNG much more advanced than AVL.

Same issue with TNG. Iron bearing Vandium deposits cant be used with Redox batteries. Way too uneconomical to get the purity levels required.

 

[$20shoes]

Same issue with TNG. Iron bearing Vandium deposits cant be used with Redox batteries. Way too uneconomical to get the purity levels required.

Actually that statement needs to be qualified. If the only impurity is iron and it's it's within an impurity tolerance limit there may be no adverse impact on the vrb's performance.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

TMT.AX have proven >99.5% purity in V205 and therefore can make battery grades. Not many other market players have proved this. AVL claim 60% yield into magnetic concentrate. TMT claiming final recoveries much greater than 60% into overall product due to lower oxidation state (more fresh material). Operating costs and capital will be similar between both companies. TMT likely to win the race on ore quality. Tonnage in AVL's favour but the tonnage required for a 20 year mine life is present in both deposits, so not really a factor.

 

[Bazzi]

Dart is thrown and landed to AVL. It might rise in November which is why I chose it for November tipping!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Dart is thrown and landed to AVL. It might rise in November which is why I chose it for November tipping!

I’ve been holding this little puppy since your pick @Bazzi. It’s finally barking this morning. Rare earths and China bullying stock for those interested.