(5th-May-2011) So_Cynical,
I have observed that we often have the same buying point on quite a few stocks, due to buying support, however this is not what I would deem to be 'good support' which is what I look for. Good support is support that is reached for the first time after a series of higher highs and higher lows. What you have here is what I call 'poor support' as the previous low was not on the way to a higher high, but a lower high. What I have found is that 'by separating 'support' into 'good support' and 'poor support', the probabilities of trades working are greatly enhanced.
I would have $3.50- $3.80 as the 'good support' level for PTM.
brty
So Cynical
Can you just run me through the trades.
How many at what level
And your thinking going forward.
I note you have added to losses and tied funds up in loss for months.
How do you equate this in your thinking?
How many of these do you have going?
Why did you not sell at the second buy level instead of buying more--- is it that hard to ake a loss?
So Cynical
Can you just run me through the trades.
How many at what level
And your thinking going forward.
I note you have added to losses and tied funds up in loss for months.
How do you equate this in your thinking?
How many of these do you have going?
Why did you not sell at the second buy level instead of buying more--- is it that hard to ake a loss?
So_Cynical,
I consider that spike down below "good support" to be a warning that the reaction may not be great and the likelyhood of further decline a high probability.
It's very hard to take a loss when you quote your trading statistics in closed trades only! A bit like those insolvent European banks not recognising their loss on the Greek debt. I look at my trading account marked-to-market everyday...and that's the best way to trade imho.
To be fair, PTM is a decent company that is cyclical. The share price will rise in the next bull market. If one is buying with his/her own money then he/she will suffer mostly opportunity cost partly compensated by (hopefully) ongoing dividends.
But the same can't be said to those averaging down in shares that are in structural decline or are running into liquidity events.
I think anyone attempting to average-down should at least learn the ability to distinguish between cyclical downturn or terminal illness...
But the same can't be said to those averaging down in shares that are in structural decline or are running into liquidity events.
I think anyone attempting to average-down should at least learn the ability to distinguish between cyclical downturn or terminal illness...
Thing to keep in mind tech is that im sitting on a 14.58% unrealised loss that's probably closer to 10.5% after dividends and franking credits, overall not a big deal. I didn't sell at the second level because that's not what i do....thinking going forward is that at some point in the future ill exit this in profit or at least break even with dividends.
Sorry guys, I just can't get my head around the concept of increasing exposure and risk by buying into something that is decreasing in value and then trying to apply reasoning of any sort to such decisions just seems like you are searching for emotional justification.
The possible looming correction could present an opportunity for me to pick up companies like those above, at incredibly low prices. An opportunity I will try not to miss. Whether that is achieved by averaging down, reading a chart, or calculating an entry point and MOS, does it really matter if the result is the same ?
The possible looming correction could present an opportunity for me to pick up companies like those above, at incredibly low prices. An opportunity I will try not to miss. Whether that is achieved by averaging down, reading a chart, or calculating an entry point and MOS, does it really matter if the result is the same ?
It doesnt matter that your wrong but it does matter how long you remain wrong.
Stop giving all your secrets away for free. But then again some people will never understand what you have written.
Cheers
I have to admit thats from NICK RADGE Im not that clever.
COH 20% discount to Friday price.I think averaging down can be useful ... IF the right stocks are chosen.
The following companies, I would happily average down into...
COH - cochlear
How long is it one is wrong?? One day if the price remains the same or drops 3%? One week if the price remains the same or drops 3%?Two vastly different methods of trading.
Cant compare each.
My take on Averaging down is that if your wrong about direction from the get go why hold it.
It doesnt matter that your wrong but it does matter how long you remain wrong.
As per usual skc, i cant argue with any of the above
My closes trade stats are good because i have alot of open losers (especially in August) but ive recovered somewhat and now the whole portfolio is actually in profit 2.6%
Either way you are taking an unnecessary risk skc, you will not find out if it has a terminal illness until its too late, why bother ?
If its going down its costing you money and you cannot tell where the bottom is - simple.
How long is it one is wrong?? One day if the price remains the same or drops 3%? One week if the price remains the same or drops 3%?
Prudent to give the trade some room to move in my opinion. So it does not matter how long you are wrong. That saying can boost broker coffers with higher stock trade turnover.
Nice saying for when the market is declining.
Sorry guys, I just can't get my head around the concept of increasing exposure and risk by buying into something that is decreasing in value and then trying to apply reasoning of any sort to such decisions just seems like you are searching for emotional justification.
I cant think of a single thing i don't want to buy cheaper.
Hookers... the cheaper they are, the more discease they carry.
Potentially the same with some shares.
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