AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

I'm not in the mood for this rubbish tonight.

Any personal attacks, insults or attempts to provoke other thread participants will have serious consequences.

Back on topic please.

This was my last chart posted here at around last my last analysis here.

im outta here.............

Never let the facts get in the way of a good story

Looking forward we still have the following facts
1. World Class Acerage
2. A World Class Operator
3. World Class Liquids Ratios
4. A successfully 100% increase in the 2010 drilling program almost completed
5. A 25% increase in the 2011 funded and planned
6. Funding to acquire more world class acerage at opportunistic prices
7. Funding to see the 2011 program through
8. Cash flow projections to see minimal capital raising requirments going forward
9. Relatively high oil prices
10. Fantastic well flows
11. A fantastic reserves report
12. Brokers with Price targets significantly above the current SP
13. A follow on strategic plan to ensure growth for 2011 to 2017
14. A plan to ensure acerage leases are held and reserves are upgraded
15. A rapidly growing company that has secured its place in the ASX300 and is attracting serious broker attention.
16. Established AUT as the premium exposure to On-Shore unconventional oil and gas plays in the US
17. Developed and negotiated infrastructure to deliver prodcut to sales
18. Board have refrained from robbing equity for overly expensive remuneration and bonus plans
19. Grown shareholder value immensly as is thier goal
20, Managed to use organic growth to deliver high ROE for shareholders

Plus a new well application called Kennedy Jones Unit just lodged.

Oil up on US growth figures, China manufacturing growth figures and Saudi comments. A nice combination for AUT

Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled up $1.52, or 1.9%, at $82.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting a two-week intraday high of $83.86. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange recently increased $1.20, or 1.4%, to $84.35 a barrel.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi suggested at a conference in Singapore that he was comfortable with a price range of $70 to $90 a barrel for crude. The comments appeared to broaden a previous range of $70 to $80 a barrel that he had said would balance the needs of oil consumers and producers. Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest oil exporter.

"When you've got the most important person as far as the global oil trade is concerned changing his tune ... the market will latch onto that

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http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101101-712830.html

Ernst & Young quarterly report reveals an industry in flux

With gas prices depressed, investors are looking for gas plays with high liquid content, such as the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Granite Wash. ...............

http://www.ogfj.com/index/article-d...esearch_analysis/ernst-__young_quarterly.html

ConocoPhillips ramps up Eagle Ford position

It appears Conoco, know where the money is...

HOUSTON, Nov. 1 -- ConocoPhillips plans to sharply hike capital spending in the Southeast Texas Eagle Ford shale play in 2011.

The investment level, although not yet approved, likely will be $1-1.5 billion in 2011 compared with $300 million in 2010, management said last week. The 2011 amount is for drilling and completions, not to add acreage.

The company holds more than 240,000 net acres southeast of San Antonio in Live Oak, Bee, Karnes, DeWitt, and Gonzales counties and expects to be running 10 rigs by the end of 2010.

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Still drilling away, still fraccing away, still lodging applications and adding value every day. Still under priced and still good value imo.

Crude-oil futures settled nearly 1% higher after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a $600 billion bond purchasing program which painted a good outlook for the U.S. economy. Oil for December rose to $84.69 a barrel on the NYMEX.

LONDON - World stocks recovered some ground Friday after data showed that the U.S. economy growing at a steady but slow rate of 2% up from 1.7% last quarter.

Heed Australia and brace for global acceleration
The world looks very different from down under. While the U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to conjure up growth and inflation, Australia is worrying about an excess of both. The Reserve Bank of Australia sees "faster than trend" global growth and "very high" prices for Australia's commodity exports. That is why the central bank made its first interest-rate increase in six months yesterday. Investors should beware. The West's cheap money is pumping up global growth and inflation, starting with Australia and the East, but likely to turn up soon closer to home.


In U.S. manufacturing, output has now expanded for 17 months and employment has been growing for 11 months. ...


Does the world need more money sloshing around? No is probably the answer. But it's almost certain to come

The world, unquestionably, is split. Australia is on its faster side.

Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/Heed+A...acceleration/3767699/story.html#ixzz14G2hRmfp

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Leading Edge
By Tom Whipple
Wednesday, November 03 2010 01:01:22 PM
Do you remember the furor over drilling for oil in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge a few years back? The whole country was up in arms. At various times some 50 to 60 percent of Americans favored drilling in the area as they were told this would result in lower gas prices.

Last week the USGS lowered its estimate of the amount of oil that could be extracted from the region all the way from 10 billion barrels down to less than one billion, making drilling in the area uneconomical. By the way, the amount of crude being pumped down the Alaskan pipeline now has fallen from 2 million barrels a day (b/d) when the pipeline first opened back in the 1970's to about 600,000 b/d in recent weeks. The trouble is that when the flow of oil falls below a quantity estimated to be 200-300,000 b/d (some say 500,000) the line will have to be closed as there will simply not be enough hot oil being sent down the pipeline to keep it from freezing in winter.


Now combine that with this story.

BP not rushing back into Gulf after rising spill costs take shine off return to profit
By Jane Wardell (CP) – 1 day ago

LONDON — Oil company BP PLC shied away from spearheading any industry rush back into the Gulf of Mexico as it revealed Tuesday that the cost of its devastating oil spill has jumped to $40 billion — taking the shine off a return to profit in the third quarter.

But he said the company would "step back" and look at its equipment and rigs in those waters before attempting to jump back in, suggesting it may turn to its ventures elsewhere in the world to provide growth for a while.

And combine that with this....

OPEC Members Seek $100 Oil to Counter Dollar Weakness
October 15, 2010, 9:35 AM EDT
More From Businessweek
Creating the OPEC of Fertilizer
China Non-Manufacturing PMI Falls to 60.5 in October
Blinder Says Fed Policy Makers ‘Making It Up as They Go Along’
Hedge Funds Cut Gasoline Bets Most Since 2006: Energy Markets
Clinton Says She Told Congress U.S. to Restore Aid to Honduras
Story Tools
e-mail this story print this story 1diggdiggadd to Business Exchange By Grant Smith and Fred Pals

(Updates with comment from Bernanke in 11th paragraph.)

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The 13 percent decline in the Dollar Index since June has led some OPEC members to call for oil to rise to $100 a barrel.

And combine that with this....

01 November, 2010

The Peak Oil Debate Is Over
By Dr. James Schlesinger

If something cannot be sustained, it will eventually not be sustained… ultimately it will shrink.

Secondly, you cannot produce oil unless you first discover it (a contribution by Colin Campbell).

Third, a resource that is finite cannot continually have its production increased.

What is the evidence?

First, we remain heavily dependent on super-giant and giant oilfields discovered in the 50s and 60s of the last century… I might add, of the last millennium. Only rarely in recent decades have discoveries equaled production. Mostly, it’s been one barrel discovered for every three barrels produced.

Second, old super-giants like Burgan in Kuwait and [Cantarell] in Mexico have gone into decline earlier than had been anticipated… and going into decline have been Alaska, the North Sea, western Siberia and the like.

Third, while it is not yet “Twilight in the Desert” (as you may have read) still we are well into the afternoon, even in Saudi Arabia. Even the Ghawar oilfield is increasingly hard to sustain.

Fourth, in 2004 we experienced our first demand-driven price spike, as opposed to the previous price spikes driven by supply interruptions. We still operate at about the level of production capacity of 2004.

Next, given projected decline curves running from 4 to 6 percent, and the projected increase in demand during the next quarter century, we shall require the new capacity equivalence of five Saudi Arabias.

Even the International Energy Agency, which previously had been sanguine, now suggests that we can no longer increase production of conventional oil in the course of this decade.

Combine that with the political instablity between Isreal and Palestine / Gaza tensions / Iran

Then combine that witht he recent news of 2% Growth in the USA, China soft landing and Indias rapid growth, raising interest rates and ......

Then add the devaluation of the USD from the printing press, causing all commodities to be relatively more expensive to the dollar.....

You then combine that with the security costs of producing oil in Iraq, and the greenhouse / environmental and financial costs of the Canadian Tar Sands which are uneconomical below $70 something dollars, North Korea, Sino Japanese teritorial disputes and you have a nice hedge to hold oil prices high. .


The fact is the days of drilling a vertical well in texas and pumping it to sales at $10 a barrell are long gone. We are now forced to go deeper, use more complicated well technology, more human experience and go into politically unstable and dangerous areas with geographical distance issues , environmental sensitivity and the days of cheap oil are over as we know it.

Nice pick up this morning, buyer numbers look a bit healthier now. This will test what the sellers are up to, whether they are out for a small quick profit, or whether they are in for the big ones.

condog said:

Nice pick up this morning, buyer numbers look a bit healthier now. This will test what the sellers are up to, whether they are out for a small quick profit, or whether they are in for the big ones.

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Awesome updates once again Condog , i and others appreciate it immensely.


(still holding AUT + EKA)

noie said:

Awesome updates once again Condog , i and others appreciate it immensely.


(still holding AUT + EKA)

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Glad to help out.

A nice finish to i must say, some good volume and it appears those pesky instos and alleged sophisti-cats have chosen to hold for more. With the close on the high, buy and seller spreads looking healthy.

Looks to me like early signs that new highs for AUT are not too far away. Especiually if that oil price continues to rise.

Three really good headlines out for AUT in the last 24 hrs

1. World bank upgrades China GDP growth forcast to 10%+

2. US economy confirmed as growing (too slow for Bananke and Obama's liking) but faster then last quarter.

3. India raised interest rates due to inflation concerns

This is huge positive news for energy demand the two biggest nations in the world and the worlds biggest economy and second biggest energy user confirmed in growth phases.

Looks like we can expect decent oil prices in the forseeable future - all other factors being equal.

condog said:

Glad to help out.

A nice finish to i must say, some good volume and it appears those pesky instos and alleged sophisti-cats have chosen to hold for more. With the close on the high, buy and seller spreads looking healthy.

Looks to me like early signs that new highs for AUT are not too far away. Especiually if that oil price continues to rise.

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Nooo! please dont say this! i am almost back to parity on my trade and want back in within the next few weeks!

It was a nice day for Aut however! looking forward to my entry again soon!

AngusSmart said:

Nooo! please dont say this! i am almost back to parity on my trade and want back in within the next few weeks!

It was a nice day for Aut however! looking forward to my entry again soon!

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Gus hope im wrong for your sake but today had a certain similarity about it to times gone by. Plenty of buyers and sellers beginning to show a desire for higher prices, it doesnt seem to take long for AUT to rocket when those trends appear.

There will be other opportunities on pull backs. Just remember it has nothing to do with price its about value.

ie it can sometimes be better imo to buy at 1.75 then 1.5 depending on time frames of course and what your doing with your cash during the opportunity period. ie if at 1.5 it only has 17 wells, yet reaches a pullback of 1.75 with 28 wells on line, all other factors being equal, 1.75 is a better buy.

but Gus do share, what the hell are you in that has been better value then AUT at 1.26

Yes even though it's frowned upon to cross promote, I'm interested too, if you don't want to risk it send me and ol' ConDog a PM. Are you talking about SEA by any chance?

If not, no idea what you're on about Angus.

ParleVouFrancois said:

Yes even though it's frowned upon to cross promote, I'm interested too, if you don't want to risk it send me and ol' ConDog a PM. Are you talking about SEA by any chance?

If not, no idea what you're on about Angus.

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With out a doubt SEA is an absolute cracker. Id be all over it if CGT wasnt such a dog of a double tax that has me unable to make decisions i would otherwise make.

Few bits of news should be coming out in the next few weeks
Patino #1H - fracced, being cleaned up and flowed as per last weeks announcement, should get initial flow rates
May #1H - frac started 21/10
Direct Assets #1H - drilled, cased and cemented waiting on frac
Couple of wells that have been drilled/spudding. Should be good before end of years with hopefully 3 new wells flowing.

Also thanks to all that have posted, being only new and learning about the market/industries this has been a lot of help and great profit!

rez_erection said:

Few bits of news should be coming out in the next few weeks
Patino #1H - fracced, being cleaned up and flowed as per last weeks announcement, should get initial flow rates
May #1H - frac started 21/10
Direct Assets #1H - drilled, cased and cemented waiting on frac
Couple of wells that have been drilled/spudding. Should be good before end of years with hopefully 3 new wells flowing.

Also thanks to all that have posted, being only new and learning about the market/industries this has been a lot of help and great profit!

Click to expand...

Yeh i think with two frac crews on the job and the post 3 phase frac delays over we should now basically have an announcment at least every roughly every two weeks of some combination of IP's flow updates and spuds. There should also be a well application imo roughly every two to three weeks. The last was Kennedy Jones Unit ealry this week.

IMO watch for an early warning sign of faster growth when the well apps speed up, imo that may be a sign the third rig is about to turn up.

The other huge impending news will be the cash flow once hilcorp costs have been recouped, which im guessing will be within the next 4 weeks. That imo will be a catalyst for a rerating for those that use cashflow and forward cashlow valuations.

dont forget to grab some peanuts popcorn and coke when shopping next. Peanuts for the monkeys, popcorn and coke to watch AUT make the transition to cash flow positive producer.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Oil prices finished higher Thursday after the Federal Reserve's decision to pump $600 billion into the financial markets pushed the dollar to new lows.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled up $1.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching a fresh six-month high of $86.68 in intraday trading. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange recently gained $1.61, or 1.9%, at $88.18.

The dollar has been in a steady downturn since late August, when the Fed first raised the prospect of a second round of quantitative easing. On Thursday, it hit its lowest level in 10 months against the euro following the Fed's announcement a day earlier that it would buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds over the next eight months in a bid to kick-start the economy.

Quantitative easing weakens the dollar because the Fed must print money to purchase Treasurys from banks, increasing the money supply. A weaker dollar, in turn, boosts oil prices by making crude cheaper in other currencies.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101104-722311.html

If they are not tree shakers with those early buys online, then i think theres a good chance we might hit a new high today.

That lead from the US is very strong, on the back of renewed confidence, really good china stories, great india news and rediculously upbeat RBA comments about a "coming expantionary shock" in Feb Mar 2011.

AUT has a habit of setting new highs on Friday, and with that indicative opening of 1.42, its not got far to go. AUT trend of mon morning updates tends to allow some to park the weekend in AUT or so it seems imo. 6c could be a big ask, but yesterday surprised me with the buyer strenght and seller discipline so soon after the CR, so im thinking anything is possible.

condog said:

Gus hope im wrong for your sake but today had a certain similarity about it to times gone by. Plenty of buyers and sellers beginning to show a desire for higher prices, it doesnt seem to take long for AUT to rocket when those trends appear.

There will be other opportunities on pull backs. Just remember it has nothing to do with price its about value.

ie it can sometimes be better imo to buy at 1.75 then 1.5 depending on time frames of course and what your doing with your cash during the opportunity period. ie if at 1.5 it only has 17 wells, yet reaches a pullback of 1.75 with 28 wells on line, all other factors being equal, 1.75 is a better buy.

but Gus do share, what the hell are you in that has been better value then AUT at 1.26

Click to expand...

Ha! i'd hardly say its better thank Aut.. Alk is the stock in question.. i'm close back to my buy in on that so looking to get out and back in but this time split with sea and aut.. however i have found my way back into Aut at the current time, the tax man was very kind to me and i have somewhat a good entry with some cfd leverage...

I've set up a guaranteed stop below 1.20 to reduce my risk (hardly see it heading back that way.. hopefully i will have that in today or monday.