Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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Crazy afternoon on Aut,

i got back in on a small 10,000 shares around lunch.. and its shot up to 1.58 already :) happy days!

hopefully i can get in again in a few weeks and get back to my original holding. perhaps it may fall a little with the next lot of c/r shares after the meeting..

good times ahead!
 
Nice high 1.59 and 1.58 close , congrats to the faithful. Theres plenty mor in this baby yet in due course. Great news on Ipenema with 30% interest and 553 on the smallest choke.... got to love that at todays oil prices.
 
And would i be corect in saying the 3rd biggest volume ever in one day? now thats got to be good, congratulations to all, i for one am CHEERING:dance::dance::dance:
 
Id imagine that todays announcment on Ipenema triggered some brokers and analysts, watchers of AUT to think or upgrade AUT's EUR by a lot, given Ipenema wasnt exactly factored into a lot of analysts numbers.
 
Tomorrow will be an interesting day. There will be profit takers for sure, but today's activity and announcement will bring AUT up on some new radars too. You'd think the majority of profit taking from the "sophisticated" investors would have been done by now. The rest of the week is going to be great to watch!

I'm very glad to be holding, and glad to have topped up with every spare dollar I had just a couple of weeks ago at under $1.30 :)

Would it be crazy to suggest that we probably won't need any further capital raising now? With oil prices as they are we must be paying off Hillcorp awfully quickly, and money will be flowing in, but will it be enough to pay for enough drilling, or will we need a bit more capital to drill as quickly as we'd like?
 
Sdajii said:
Tomorrow will be an interesting day. There will be profit takers for sure, but today's activity and announcement will bring AUT up on some new radars too. You'd think the majority of profit taking from the "sophisticated" investors would have been done by now. The rest of the week is going to be great to watch!

I'm very glad to be holding, and glad to have topped up with every spare dollar I had just a couple of weeks ago at under $1.30 :)

Would it be crazy to suggest that we probably won't need any further capital raising now? With oil prices as they are we must be paying off Hillcorp awfully quickly, and money will be flowing in, but will it be enough to pay for enough drilling, or will we need a bit more capital to drill as quickly as we'd like?
Click to expand...

I think we are pretty well funded now for the forseable future. The recent CR was done to fund advanced drilling with the intent of makeing sure we could hold all leases.

Cash flow will imo be flowing within 21-40 days or so and will imo then nullify the need for any further CR, (with the exception of and acquisition of EKA or similar.

Others will disagree and thats fin, but thats my :2twocents
 
"Tomorrow will be an interesting day. There will be profit takers for sure, but today's activity and announcement will bring AUT up on some new radars too. You'd think the majority of profit taking from the "sophisticated" investors would have been done by now. The rest of the week is going to be great to watch"

Could be right but this result represents a first step on the path to de-risking Ipanema representing about 13% of the net acreage. The company deserves a mild re-rating just because of that.

Some of the shares appear to have been placed with professional fund managers. They will be required to top-slice as the share re-rates because of in-house or regulatory rules on proportionate exposures of the fund managed to individual securities. That is very different from dumping or profit-taking.

But that is not necessarily a negative for the share. It will provide liquidity in the market and will make the share more attractive to buyers as well.

The progressive de-risking of the company's assets is changing it from a 'blue-sky' speculative stock into (hopefully) a high-growth producer. We might be prepared to sweat it out for multiple returns but many ordinary investors buying into collective investment schemes are looking for respectable and sustained growth. Returns and risk go hand in hand. Those who shy away from the kind of brutal risk that we have had to stomach will earn more moderate returns but there is a big market out there for the kind of returns that AUT can still deliver.

So, don't worry about selling by institutions. It is bound to happen as the share re-rates and will have little or nothing to do with perceived prospects. It will be portfolio management by professional fund managers.
 
Great points esteon and to continue on that trend. The instos will each unload portions as they see fit, and as they reach there own targets the good thing is the higher the sp goes the further the insots who might have been considering selling, raise there expectations.

Looking at the buy sell spreads its pretty evident now that many holders are not prepared to sell at any price in the ofreseeable future.

I for one have dates rather then prices constraining me and im certain many Australian private investors would be in the same boat due to CGT rules.

One of the dilemas with stocks that go ballistic and show signs of continuation of that growth is that the CGT becomes abhorant once the stock has grown significantly until the magic 12 months has ticked over.

Personally i think AUT rpoved up a good percentage of its reserves and acerage today as a first step. Obviously a point not ignored by many.
 
Euroz seem pretty happy with the latest bunch of results.

just a small extract..

Today’s result is highly encouraging noting the implied oil:gas ratio (OGR) of 140bbls/mmscf and anecdotal evidence of THP and reservoir performance there-in.
We had anticipated – noting Ipanema’s proximity to the ‘dry-gas window’ – that the OGR would likely be in the order of 50-80bbls/mmscf noting off-set wells to the south-east.
At up to twice this expectation, we view the economic potential of Ipanema to be even more viable.
Click to expand...

Can someone tell me how they come up with the 140bbls/mmscf??
 
AngusSmart said:
Euroz seem pretty happy with the latest bunch of results.

just a small extract..



Can someone tell me how they come up with the 140bbls/mmscf??
Click to expand...

They have either been on the TRRC site or they have priveledged information which the market does not recieve. Its common practice as thier broker.
 
AngusSmart
"Can someone tell me how they come up with the 140bbls/mmscf??"
553 bbls/d div 4.08 mmscf/d = 136 bbls/mmscf
 
mir said:
AngusSmart
"Can someone tell me how they come up with the 140bbls/mmscf??"
553 bbls/d div 4.08 mmscf/d = 136 bbls/mmscf
Click to expand...

Rounding, im assuming.

Euroz and im guessing a number of other analysts had factored in Ipenema to be more in the dry gas window. Euroz had estimates of 50-80 bbls/mmcfg and have since upgraded thier EUR's and valuation to $2.12

Other brokers would have done similar, and fund managers that are on the ball would also have either calculated upgrades or recieved upgrades from thier teams.

The Euroz update also mentions the value acruive acqusitions they are presently chasing, so they say expect further upgrades as they come through. All other factors being equal that is.
 
condog said:
Rounding, im assuming.

Euroz and im guessing a number of other analysts had factored in Ipenema to be more in the dry gas window. Euroz had estimates of 50-80 bbls/mmcfg and have since upgraded thier EUR's and valuation to $2.12

Other brokers would have done similar, and fund managers that are on the ball would also have either calculated upgrades or recieved upgrades from thier teams.

The Euroz update also mentions the value acruive acqusitions they are presently chasing, so they say expect further upgrades as they come through. All other factors being equal that is.
Click to expand...

The last euroz report dated 28/10/10 still has the target of 2.12 but was a buy at 1.34...

good times ahead. cant wait to clear up some more funds and plonk them in.
 
Indicative opening 1.60, but more importantly the sell side is nice and tight with only 231K for sale.

Could creat some nice sustained upward pressure .
 
From WSJ.com

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Oil futures hit a fresh two-year high Wednesday after the U.S. Department of Energy reported oil and fuel stockpiles declined last week, continuing a nearly two-month slide from 27-year highs.

Light, sweet crude oil for December delivery was recently up $1.14, or 1.3%, at $87.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract hit an intraday high of $88.02, the highest level since October 2008.
Brent crude oil on the ICE futures exchange added 83 cents, or 0.9%, to $89.16 a barrel.

Oil inventories fell 3.4 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 5, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. It was the biggest week-to-week drop in crude-oil stocks since July 9. Stocks were seen rising by 800,000 barrels, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

From Google News
Oil is going to US$300 a barrel, peak oil coming soon National Post (registration) - ‎Nov 5, 2010‎
Charles Maxwell, a former energy exec who is now an analyst at Weeden & Co., says "peak oil" will drive oil prices to $300 a barrel over the next decade. ....

Trade Deficit in US Shrinks as Exports Climb to Two-Year High Bloomberg - Timothy R. Homan - ‎4 hours ago‎
A shipping container is off-loaded onto a truck at the Port of Houston Barbours Cut Terminal in Houston, ...

All good news for AUT
 
Two new well apps approved on TRRC today for hilcorp in Karnes

Georg (EF)
Foster Unit

two simultaneosu well apps, are they time managing better or is this the first sign of an accelleration in the program, ramping up for early 2011

Note on the performance options for those staffers. I tend to think performance rights should require performance, those benchmarks are pretty conservative imo.


Also from euroz report

"Additionally, successful pursuit of strategic, value accretive acquisitions in a strong Buyers’
Market will add to share price momentum. Our analysis suggests that $/acre valuations
and EV:reserve metrics should support an Enterprise Value of at least $650-1000m (vs
$410m currently) at current commodity prices and development assumptions.
BUY with a valuation and price target of $2.12/sh."
 

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