AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

Well with AUT looking on value at $351mcap and drilling and fraccing progressing far faster then anticipated in late 2009. One has to look back at the following two slides and say, even us optimistic amatuers under estimated the abilty of AUT managment to achieve these targets.

But they are looking more and more like they may one day be far too conservative???

Personally and these are only my personal targets for me. Not advice. But i have it pegged at $1.59 for Jan 1 2011 and $3.87 for Jan 2012, based on $75 oil prices then and 3.75 gas.

Just out of interest sake if we did get a US recovery and China India demand and popped $100 oil again then wed be looking at $6.97 in 2012. Please note thats an optimistic target, please dont base any foolish decisions on it. But its not impossible. Ive only used averages of 500boepd and 2mmcfg.

Got an email from an ASF poster wanting to know what my spreadsheet projected for $50 oil and $3 gas if things turned bad. Well this is only my opinion so dont rely on it whatever you do. But i have it at $1.08 for jan 1 2011 and $2.07 for Jan 2012

Pretty rosy headlines, hoepfully we will wake to more after the Fed comments more. Im not so sure, but i do hope so.

See what the morning brings but if these headlines are correct combined with official US recovery, i think we will be extremely happy AUT investors in the near future.

Its almost like a good news week today for the fundamentals that drive AUT prices.



From: http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/oil/...-trades-over-79-as-the-us-dollar-weakens.html

Reliance Reportedly Eyeing Fourth Shale Deal
Oil and Gas Insight (registration) - ‎4 hours ago‎
According to that report, the company was recently in China seeking investors for a 20% stake in its Eagle Ford shale play and indicated it thought the sale ...

hopefully not AUT

Texon Petroleum Prepares To Spud Its First Eagle Ford Shale On The Leighton Field
oilbarrel.com - ‎Sep 20, 2010‎
... Corporate said the recent acquisition of Adelphi Energy by AWE, priced at a 43 per cent premium, implied a value of around A$30700 per acre of EFS. ...

AS you sleep tonight cross your fingers and toes for a postive Fed announcment on its monetary policy. Even if its not fantastic, cross everything that its taken positve.

I have a feeling tonight on the DJIA and Oil price will be huge one way or the other.

Been doing some work on the spreads between EKA / AUT

The blue line represents the monthly average ratio of AUT to EKA sp.
The red line represents the cumulative monthly average. EG sep 09, is ave of sep 09 only. Oct 09 is average od sep and oct 09 etc etc
The green line represents the 3 month moving average.

You can actually compare the monthly moving average with the 3 month moving average to get a very crude moving averages indicator. The moving averages are a bit too long term to be tradable at this point. I will work on a better set this morning.

You can also see that AUt is currently surging ahead, which means its time to jump to EKA in some peoples opinion, or imo it may indicate 2011 AUT growth beginning to be factored in to AUT price only time will tell.

Below is my version of my 5 / 20 day moving average of the AUT, EKA ratio. Open for comments, so go for it. Dont know about you but nokias trading opportunities are pretty obvious.

IMO the blue racing up ahead of the 20 MA indicates the AUT buy and the racing down after it crosses indicates the switch to EKA.

AUT still pumping out new highs with a 1.375

This is definitely a rerating or some serious acqusition, by ??

Well what a day for AUT holders, smashing out another new high of $1.375, 7.5c up on its previous high of the last couple of days.

Threres definately some stiff acquisition happening. Volume up strongly. Its definitely not TO , type acquisition, imo, its more like some funds grabbign thier share and some ASX 300 watchers / viewers of the AUT presos of last week.

1.59 not looking silly at all, and my 1.31 target that i got smashed for back earlier in this thread has been and gone.

Fantastic info Condog.

Like a fair number of people you're coverage of this stock originally alerted me about AUT, and now i'm sitting on healthy 140% gain.

Not to mention i bought EKA at 15c because I knew of AUT's existence! (and the relationship between the 2 companies). So a big thank you to you!

So far, so good, happy holding indeed.

I'm sure the same can be said about the what the future brings as well.

The various overseas (and oil) futures look good at the present time, here's hoping tomorrow can be yet another strong day for the company. Like you said, I'm loving the new highs being smashed out each week.

Sharejon said:

Fantastic info Condog.

Like a fair number of people you're coverage of this stock originally alerted me about AUT, and now i'm sitting on healthy 140% gain.

Not to mention i bought EKA at 15c because I knew of AUT's existence! (and the relationship between the 2 companies). So a big thank you to you!

So far, so good, happy holding indeed.

I'm sure the same can be said about the what the future brings as well.

The various overseas (and oil) futures look good at the present time, here's hoping tomorrow can be yet another strong day for the company. Like you said, I'm loving the new highs being smashed out each week.

Click to expand...

Yep and the buy sell depth looks reasonable as well , still plenty of gaps o the sell side and a 3:1 ratio. A pullback of somesort will be invevitable, buit having weeded some of the traders out the supply side is very thin on the ground. Bring on 12 months for discount CGT i say, even then, im not sure i want to sell any.

Mmmm...another nice rise in Auroras SP for me to wake up to this morning (I live in the U.K.).

I estimate that the SP has now gone up by ~25% since the last Operational news update from the company on the 8/9/10. Whilst this increase in SP value is pleasing, it's also a bit worrying.....as an ex Adelphi shareholder I don't want to be robbed by a Takeover of the much higher future value in AUT, as I was with ADI.

Perhaps the recent rise in the SP has been helped by the Company's issues of "presentation material", some buying re the entry of AUT into the Oz300 index, a bit more confidence returning in the U.S. economy (albeit is still fragile) and POO remaining around the $75 mark?

Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see , but I will certainly feel more relaxed with some further excellent Operational updates and an SP at the very least up in the $1-80's before a bidder declares his hand at a large premium price.

At best, I really hope we get left alone until the SP is $3+ but I'm not banking on it!

tonudiki said:

Mmmm...another nice rise in Auroras SP for me to wake up to this morning (I live in the U.K.).

I estimate that the SP has now gone up by ~25% since the last Operational news update from the company on the 8/9/10. Whilst this increase in SP value is pleasing, it's also a bit worrying.....as an ex Adelphi shareholder I don't want to be robbed by a Takeover of the much higher future value in AUT, as I was with ADI.

Perhaps the recent rise in the SP has been helped by the Company's issues of "presentation material", some buying re the entry of AUT into the Oz300 index, a bit more confidence returning in the U.S. economy (albeit is still fragile) and POO remaining around the $75 mark?

Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see , but I will certainly feel more relaxed with some further excellent Operational updates and an SP at the very least up in the $1-80's before a bidder declares his hand at a large premium price.

At best, I really hope we get left alone until the SP is $3+ but I'm not banking on it!

Click to expand...

Right now unless they give one hell of a premium i cant see us beeing taken over. No one has a strong starting base other then the stewarts, who wouldnt want to take it over.

Also nearly all share holders in AUs are in the same boat, they dont a=want to pay 45% of CGT hence they wil all want to hold into Q2 next year imo.

We are a well educated and tightly holding bunch. imo a lot more disciplined then the traders who grabbed control and sold ADI %.

condog said:

Right now unless they give one hell of a premium i cant see us beeing taken over. No one has a strong starting base other then the stewarts, who wouldnt want to take it over.

Also nearly all share holders in AUs are in the same boat, they dont a=want to pay 45% of CGT hence they wil all want to hold into Q2 next year imo.

We are a well educated and tightly holding bunch. imo a lot more disciplined then the traders who grabbed control and sold ADI %.

Click to expand...

Thanks for your thoughts condog. I had read somewhere on here that you Oz guys get your CGT reduced by 50% after you have held for a year. What I didn't know was that you started paying at 45% though...hell, that's some rate for "short-term" holders & traders!! Anyway, as you say, that's a big incentive not to sell out of AUT until next year.

tonudiki said:

What I didn't know was that you started paying at 45% though...hell, that's some rate for "short-term" holders & traders!! .

Click to expand...

if pain persists please see a different accountant.

different people have different circumstances,sometimes they may be different to yours.


end of valuable input.

Tonudiki

You had better familiarise yourself with our CGT rules as OS investors are also liable for CGT. Although im not sure whether UK and Aus have a reciprocal tax collection agreement, like As and NZ have.

ITs pretty simple really.

CGT payable at your nominal rate of income tax if share owned for less then 12 months,. If owned more then 12 motnhs a 50% discount applies.

Our tax rates are:

Tax rates 2009–10

Taxable income
Tax on this income

0 – $6,000
Nil

$6,001 – $35,000
15c for each $1 over $6,000

$35,001 – $80,000
$4,350 plus 30c for each $1 over $35,000

$80,001 – $180,000
$17,850 plus 38c for each $1 over $80,000

$180,001 and over
$55,850 plus 45c for each $1 over $180,000
http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/content.asp?doc=/content/12333.htm

Capital Gains Tax
http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/pathway.asp?pc=001/001/038

How capital gains tax affects shares and units
For CGT purposes, shares in a company or units in a unit trust are treated in the same way as any other CGT assets.

As a general rule, if you acquire any shares or units on or after 20 September 1985, you may have to pay tax on any capital gain you make when a CGT event happens to them. This would usually be when you sell or otherwise dispose of them. It also includes where you redeem units in a managed fund by switching them from one fund to another. In this case, CGT event A1 happens (see What is a capital gains tax event?).

Profits on the sale of shares held in carrying on a business of share trading are included as ordinary income rather than as capital gains. For more information, read Carrying on a business of share trading.

A CGT event might happen to shares even if a change in their ownership is involuntary – for example, if the company in which you hold shares is taken over or merges with another company. This may result in a capital gain or capital loss.

Calculating your capital gain or loss
http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/c...htm&pc=001/001/038/002/001&mnu=&mfp=&st=&cy=1

The above rates do not include the Medicare levy of 1.5%. This levy would probably not be payable for you, but is payable for AUssies.

Ususally CGT is not a huge problem for most investors, however when you buy a sizable parcel in a stock that performs like AUT has, it can be enough to easily take you into the top bracket, as your Cap gain gets added to your income, to determine your tax bracket , if you make a big gain.

But as Nun said, always see an accountant.

Still lloks good with almost a 3:1 ratio, that ratio is gradually dropping.

There is still very limited supply on the sell side and its riddled with decent gaps, which imo is still a bullish sign, showing even short term traders are getting greedy with offloading this.

Sugarloaf update

WOW 23 stages on Kowalik which was brilliant even when TCIE muffed it. 6500 feet should have good flows and lower declines Uruttia spudded already, and im guessing Frank Unit will be spudded before mid Oct.

23rd September 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
By e-Lodgement
SUGARLOAF AMI OPERATIONS UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations at the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.
May #1H Operations Update
The drilling operations on the May #1H well are now complete. The well was drilled to a final depth of 17,550 ft, providing approximately 5,000 ft of horizontal section within the reservoir. The production casing string will now be run and cemented in place. The well will then be fracture stimulated in due course, in a similar fashion to the other Aurora wells within the Eagle Ford Shale trend. This is the third post farmout well within the Sugarloaf AMI in which Aurora has participated.
Urrutia #1H
The fourth post farmout well within the Sugarloaf AMI, Urrutia #1H, has been spudded and is presently drilling ahead.
Kowalik #1R
The fracture stimulation of the Kowalik #1R well is presently underway. There are a total of 23 stages planned along approximately 6,500 ft of horizontal reservoir

Click to expand...