AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

Two slides from the preso yesterday show progress as requested Angus. Then my old one which i will update flows soon.

Hilcorp are still in the Acqusition business....

Sep 1 2010

Hilcorp Energy I, L.P. has acquired 85% working interests in an additional 1,814 gross acres controlled by the Company in the Eagle Ford trend in Gonzales County, Texas. Lucas received $1.3 million in this third closing.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lu...p-energy-i-lp-2010-09-01?reflink=MW_news_stmp


Abraxas will contribute 8,333 net acres in the Eagle Ford Shale play to Blue Eagle Energy, LLC (the "JV") and receive a $25 million equity interest in the JV and Blue Stone will initially contribute $25 million in cash to the JV for a $25 million equity interest in the JV. In addition, Blue Stone has committed an additional $50 million in cash to the JV, which combined with the initial $25 million, will be used to acquire additional acreage and 3-D seismic data, and to drill and complete wells targeting the Eagle Ford Shale formation. Upon full funding, Abraxas will own a 25% equity interest in the JV and Blue Stone will own a 75% equity interest in the JV.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ab...joint-venture-2010-08-18?reflink=MW_news_stmp

It seems the buy sell imbalance is currently set for a great day for AUT.
821 to 381, havent seen that for over a week. Finished onthe high yesterday. The bollengers piched a few days ago.

AUT graph with my growth channel.
Using Euroz 1.50 targets indicated in grey for 1st of each month it looks like being 1.22 1.32 1.42 1.50 roughly speaking.

Using current growth rates it looks like achieving 1.35 for 1st Jan
1st of each month being 1.18 1.25 1.30 1.35
However current growth curve does not allow for possible significant rerating upon cash flow in Q4. Also does not allow for possible anticipation of possible up to 50% increase in growth rate upon 3rd rig arriving in Jan.



It will wiggle about on the way, but that in my opinion is roughly what im expecting if all other factors remain roughly equal.

For the tech heads, courtesy of PRGudula.

Nice find PR. Gives a very quick guide to the resistance levels.

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39089306

US Crude Jumps on Canada-US Pipeline Shutdown

U.S. crude for October jumped to near $75 on Friday after a leak forced Enbridge to shut down the biggest pipeline supplying Canadian oil to refineries in the Midwest and to a key storage hub in Oklahoma.

Short termers up on risk of pipeline, but mid termers doan on inventory levels.

Still plenty of mixed signals, but no concerns for AUT at these prices imo.

Very Importantly imo

Fears of a second recession ease, at least for now
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER and JEANNINE AVERSA (AP) – 16 hours ago


The last time the nation suffered something like a double-dip recession was in 1980 and 1981. That period met a generally accepted definition of a double-dip: The economy shrinks, starts growing again, then shrinks again for at least six months.

The second recession back then, from July 1981 to November 1982, was a severe one. But it ushered in a period of explosive growth starting in 1983.

This time, few economists foresee a similar bust-boom-bust cycle. Rather, they expect a continuation of the steady but low-grade rebound from the recession, which began in December 2007 and is thought to have ended last year.

Thursday's data added to confidence that the economy will keep growing slowly and eventually lead to more job creation.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gNiyJ905Ho0Ur96V2TQhsBX19lGwD9I4JPP05

U.S. just going through a Canadian-style recovery


Amid all the fear and loathing about the never-ending, jobless, U.S. recovery it’s worth bearing in mind that this path has been well-trodden before — by Canada. That should give those who believe the U.S. is sliding into a Japanese-style deflation, a 1930s-style Depression or never-ending stagnation, some comfort.
As Doug Porter, at BMO Capital Markets, points out in a research note on Thursday, Canada has already regained nearly all its job losses since this recession. But this is swift by traditional Canadian standards. It took four years for Canada to accomplish that feat in the early 1980s cycle and nearly five years in the 1990s cycle.
Like the United States, a monumental housing bust was a major feature of Canada’s early 1990s cycle, exacerbated by the kind of government cutbacks the U.S. is now likely facing.
U.S. payrolls are still 5.5% below pre-recession peaks, Mr. Porter points out, a hole it could easily take another three to four years more to dig out of it.
But the United States is likely to pull through, just like Canada did.

Read more: http://business.financialpost.com/2...ough-a-canadian-style-recovery/#ixzz0z81m6vCF

China's imports leapt in August, boding well for a strengthening of domestic demand in an economy that has become a major driver of global growth.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/worl...s-shrinks-as-imports-leap-20100910-1544m.html

Both headlines we need for AUT - US economy improving and Oil Up

Wall Street Gains as Economic Outlook Brightens

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow and S&P 500 were on track on Friday to close the week with a seventh gain in the last eight sessions, a period that has seen investors worst fears about the economy start to dissipate.

The S&P 500 has rallied nearly six percent since the end of August, a month when stocks skidded as investors worried that the economy was headed for a double-dip recession. The gradual improvement in the data continued on Friday as U.S. wholesale inventories surged by the largest amount in two years in July.

"That's going to support the probability that the third-quarter GDP is at least going to be a positive number," said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Robert W. Baird & Co in Nashville. "All of a sudden the numbers started to turn just enough to say that we're not going to have a double dip, and that forced a lot of money back into the market."


Energy companies gained as crude oil futures jumped 3 percent to $76.46 per barrel after the forced shutdown of the biggest pipeline supplying Canadian oil to refineries in the U.S. Midwest and to a key storage hub in Oklahoma.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=11600480

Oil climbs after revision of global demand estimates

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Crude oil futures climbed more than 2% on Friday, buoyed in part by an upward revision to global oil demand for this year.

.....on Friday morning the International Energy Agency said that it had increased its forecast for global oil demand this year by 50,000 barrels a day. The IEA now forecasts demand of 86.6 million barrels a day for 2010. It held its forecast for 2011 at 87.9 million barrels a day.

......Also boosting prices, the Energy Information Administration said crude-oil inventories for the week ended Sept. 3 fell by 1.9 million barrels, far less than a trade group estimated late Wednesday.

Hopes for oil demand were also lifted in Asia on Friday after Japan raised its second-quarter growth estimate and after China said its imports of crude rose in July.

"You'll see the knee-jerk reaction," to China-related data as the country's financial well-being and economic status has an effect on commodity markets, said Newsom.

"But longer-term, we have to go back to underlying fundamentals. Growth in demand is a huge question mark. We're going to see short-term [price] spikes as money moves from one market to the next. Until we see something substantial change in the fundamentals, it's more than likely these types of moves aren't going to hold."

Newsom said the market appears "well overvalued" and that charts indicate prices could reach the low $50-a-barrel price range this winter. ??????


Not sure i agree with $50. Normally on inventory levels this high yes. But imo oil is a speculative commoditty and any speculation of peak oil being imminent will force contracts for supply and hence higher futures, or atleast underpin a reasoanble price going forward.

Updated Chart for tech heads courtesy of 5haretrader.
Loooks promising for a new high based on this chart. Lets wait see.

US sharemarket hits 4-week high as energy stocks gain
Donna Kardos Yesalavich From: Dow Jones Newswires September 11, 2010

US stocks rose to extend a winning run for the second consecutive week today, as energy companies lit up on oil demand forecasts.

.......Today’s climb across the rest of the market came as data showed bigger than expected Chinese imports and a larger than forecast increase in inventories at US wholesalers. The reports followed other economic releases over the past two weeks that have beat expectations.

“The recent economic reports are confirming that, while the rate of recovery in our economy has slowed, it's still on a positive trajectory,”....

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ergy-stocks-gain/story-e6frg91o-1225918192307

The article was accompanied by this pic. When the media start using pics of bulls the mood tends to change imo. Right now im seeing the possible start of and Elliot Wave 3, which is the longest uptrned in the 5 wave cycle. Time will tell, but i think if tis right which we should know in another week , we might be in for some very interesting times and some significant rises in oil prices.

condog said:

US sharemarket hits 4-week high as energy stocks gain

Click to expand...

Shouldn't this be in just a general "oil" or "energy" thread?

I suppose any energy company would be interested, just seems like bumping this particular thread really.

I come here to read AUT news.

kennas said:

Shouldn't this be in just a general "oil" or "energy" thread?

I suppose any energy company would be interested, just seems like bumping this particular thread really.

I come here to read AUT news.

Click to expand...

Its extremely relevant to AUT growth prospects, the primary macro driver is oil price, driven by the two macro's of the US recovery and China.

Knowing the prospects of those two allows AUT investores two know our forward profitability. We now know AUT and Hilcorp can do thier bit to an exceptional standard, what we really need to monitor is the oil price via its drivers.

Come monday AUT investors are wondering whats in store, well in the absence of news, this is the drivers for mondasy sp.

kennas said:

Shouldn't this be in just a general "oil" or "energy" thread?

I suppose any energy company would be interested, just seems like bumping this particular thread really.

I come here to read AUT news.

Click to expand...

Info from a few posters on HC about AUT for you Kennas (Im sure they dont mind):

MIR911
1. management getting the big end of town interested from presentation with a good story to tell.
2.hilcorp drilling about 50 wells by the end of 2011 & improving on drilling & frac techniques as demonstrated with T3.
3. getting into the asx 300 & probably not to far away from the asx 200.
4. if well spacings are reduced to 40 acres per well forget $2+.
5. plenty more but can't remember OGG can help lol.
Oil Gold Gas
6. cash flow about to begin in Q4
7. Memebr of S&P ASX300 now so plenty of funds will need to acquire.
8. When third rig turns up in Jan, if frac crews can keep up then growth should improve by approx 50%
9 I have forward cash flow projection targets of 1.59 for Dec 31 2010 and $3.47 for Dec 2011. My opinion only.
10. Two brokers saying approx Dec 2010 1.32 and 1.50, so consensus = approx 1.41
11. Canadian Oil pipeline leak triggered shock supply issiues ??? unknown effect
12. Latest news on US seems definitely to be pointing at slow recovery rather then double dip
13. Latest China manufacturing figures are fantastic.

I believe OGG is Condog

Next year looks just as grim for natural gas producers
Posted Friday, Sep. 10, 2010


The problem is "too much supply, pure and simple,"

http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/09/10/2459162/next-year-looks-just-as-grim-for.html#ixzz0zDhz5mDx

At first glance this sounds alarming for AUT, but given our high liquids ratios, this could actually be a blessing in disguise, stalling many of our competitors and allowing us to either clean up thier assets once gas prices are highly economic, or give us the growth and profit , to take on plays in newly developed shales elsewhere while amny of our smaller peers struggle on dry gas prices. ?? something to ponder.

Paints a rosy picture for monday, with the US double dip fears receeding, China growth figures indicated a well constructed soft landing imo, and Peak Oil on everyones concern list. This canadian pipe leak may just highlight how extremely vulnerable any interuption to supplies makes us.

Peak Oil clearly hasnt arrived, but with demand and supply so close to balance, it highlights we dont need much of a supply side problem, or even anticipated growth in demand to cause a bit of panic.

Mon, ??? should be a nice day for AUT.

New Investor presentation out in the ASX announcments for AUT

Well worth a read , has some excellent pictures of well locations.

Also explains the NSAI valuations, and hopes to convert 3P to 1P in 12-18 months.

Peak negative cash flow in 2011 which we knew, $38M in cash stil avail.

Has great explanation of drilling plans to 2017 and beyond. With cumulative cash flow projected beyond $2B in 2024, faster if they reduce well spacing to <80 acres.

Still very liquids rich at 80% of Rev.

Well worth a read, theres a clear funded plan for growth and it inspires a lot of confidence in these guys.

Thanks Condog,

Thats a great presentation that clearly shows what we're invested in.
Just keep the US economy in check and a 1 and a 1/2 cent rise each week on average is very realistic for the next 12 months in my opinion.

Hit a new high today and some decent volume starting to come in, nice presentation too, looks like it might be some good bribing material to keep the wife off my back to sell. i think i need to hang onto this for some time now!

heres the updated trend

Assasin said:

Thanks Condog,

Thats a great presentation that clearly shows what we're invested in.
Just keep the US economy in check and a 1 and a 1/2 cent rise each week on average is very realistic for the next 12 months in my opinion.

Click to expand...

Yeh approx 8-10c per month for 2010 imo then approx 12 - 15c per month in 2011, when the third rig turns up, based on, current growth and projected growth to mmet consensus forcasts.

Hey Angus, could be the most expensive shopping trip your wife ever makes if she makes you sell ???