AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

nunthewiser · 10 June 2010

nioka said:
How can you possibibly equate a technical chart based on past events with the current prospects for AUT is beyond me. The past echoes early failures and doubts about the potential. The future and the present should be based on the great results presently being obtained that show very little doubt about the future. A chart showing the drilling results would be a better chart to use to predict the SP in the future.

Thats great.

However i am merely putting my opinion out there in regards to current price action and where i think it will go from here based on MY interpretation of patterns formed and likely pivot points.

like i said i could always be wrong

I use charts to guage likely turning points in ALL stocks/vehicles i trade and quite often what happens in the past ( as in recent moves) will provide guidance on where the action MAY go from here.

Um as far as "current prospects " go .. a cap raising looks highly likely shortly based on my basic number crunching look i had earlier.

Anyhoo each to there own BUT recent selloff vols from the recent high to current lower vols and current patterns popping up lead me to my ORIGINAL post.

If a drilling ann chart will help make ya cash well good luck to ya, I,ll stick to what works for me.

Sharejon · 10 June 2010

I'm not saying the SP isn't being affected by people selling off due to their suspicions of cap raising (because I do believe this is the case for alot of the selling IMO), but I agree with Nioka, it's extremely harsh judging AUT purely from a charting perspective, given the recent incredible performance it's achieved.

It's only natural that it's slowed down a bit. (mind you an improved offer from AWE would definitely accelerate it greatly IMO). The SP has jumped nearly 3x from the start of the year, it'd be naive to expect such growth to be continued from here on!

I'm with others in saying this, but I do not mind the idea of a cap raising at all, but i hope they don't do what ADI did and only offer it to particular shareholders.

I will say I'm looking forward for Turnbull to start providing results!

condog · 10 June 2010

nioka said:
How can you possibibly equate a technical chart based on past events with the current prospects for AUT is beyond me. The past echoes early failures and doubts about the potential. The future and the present should be based on the great results presently being obtained that show very little doubt about the future. A chart showing the drilling results would be a better chart to use to predict the SP in the future.

Nioka I agree

Right now this is not a technically driven stock

This is a news driven stock , fueled by each and every new well and frac.

The current trend observed on the chart is in relation to a percieved incorrect imo immediate threat, by some to a possible CR.

It will blow over as further Turnbull results make this garbage about a small future CR seem insignificant. Late 2010 is the time mentioned by mgnt in the presentation, and its price will have little bearing on current prices.

The technicals may be correct on a slight pull back depending on IP timings of T1, T 2, T 3, but we have seen small consolidations all the way up, that late buyers / traders have participated in. The fact is its still a very tightly held stock and plenty, plenty, plenty more upside imo.

End of 2010 ive got it conservatively valued up around 1.67+ depending what prices and flows you use, using very conservative numbers, so i cant see us stuck at 80 odd cents for too long.

Off too queenstown NZ for a well overdue snow trip this morning for a few weeks, so hold the fort and enjoy the ride all.

Slipperz · 11 June 2010

Hasn't been mentioned for a while so for new holders that might not be aware we also own 12% of elixir petroleum which is going pretty well this past month or so

http://www.elixirpetroleum.com/securitiesinformation.asp

stefan_invester · 14 June 2010

hey guys
pretty slow day today, just
waiting for tomorrow to come..

was just reading around, and i noticed someone say this
(on one of the ADI forums) :

"Well know U.S. takeover firm KKR are in talks with Hillcourp and may acquire their Eagleford Shale assets for approx. U.S $400 million.... now that will spice up the action even more"

Just wondering if anyone knows what this could mean for AUT?
thanks, hope everyones having a good day off
cheers. Stefan

5haretrader · 14 June 2010

It means someone is going to takeover AUT for $10 per share tomorrow...

No well seriously, it is a good sign because there is more and more attention coming towards that neck of the woods. We probably won't see too much interest (from the institutions like KKR) in AUT in particular because we have all the fundamentals in place to go it alone for a long time. Really is no need for buyouts of resources or takeovers, in my eyes at least.

In the short term however, can we pull this little slump around in the SP and kick on again into the 90cent region. I hope so.

Dink · 15 June 2010

AUT in a trading halt. ADI and EKA not in one. Let the speculation begin..............................................

Agentm · 15 June 2010

aut is in a trading halt

the halt relates to a capital raising

i think you financial assessment of aut was pretty unbelievable condog..

i will be extremely interested in the amounts that aut is about to raise and of course how much the sophisticated investors get in for..

good luck to all holders..

Sdajii · 15 June 2010

Agentm said:
aut is in a trading halt

the halt relates to a capital raising

As soon as I saw the words "trading halt" on ASX I assumed the same thing, and still do, but do you know this or is it just speculation? It's a safe bet, but I'm mostly just wondering if you have a way of confirming it.

If it goes to existing holders I won't be all that upset. If it goes largely to sophisticated investors I'll be disgruntled.

Assuming it's capital raising, we'll soon test everyone's predictions about how much a capital raising will knock the price down and how the price will behave afterwards. It should stop a bit of bickering

Bigukraine · 15 June 2010

Agentm said:
aut is in a trading halt

the halt relates to a capital raising

i think you financial assessment of aut was pretty unbelievable condog..

i will be extremely interested in the amounts that aut is about to raise and of course how much the sophisticated investors get in for..

good luck to all holders..

let the agent and condog show begin get your pop corn , front row seats and enjoy the entertaining exchanges

5haretrader · 15 June 2010

If you read the announcement, its related to capital raising. IMO, this is fantastic news . Pity if you were just in for a short term buck, but those in for the long hall can mark this as a great opportunity to top up on your holding at a good price

Sdajii · 15 June 2010

5haretrader said:
If you read the announcement, its related to capital raising. IMO, this is fantastic news . Pity if you were just in for a short term buck, but those in for the long hall can mark this as a great opportunity to top up on your holding at a good price

Ah, yes, I just read the fine print. I suppose I should have done that before opening my mouth.

My entry was mid 60s, I was confident that it was a good buy at that price, and it's possible the capital raising won't push us below 70c anyway. The recent sell offs were quite likely the result of people like Agentm seeing a clear need for capital raising, and likely that's what prevented us from topping 90c recently. Looks like a brilliant time to be topping up or jumping in for the medium to long term.

Happy to be holding

AngusSmart · 15 June 2010

Heres an article regarding the recent news on kkr acquiring 40% of hilcorp released today the 14th (us date)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65D0A120100614

"KKR will invest up to $400 million to develop the property, and will own 40 percent of Hilcorp Resources LLC, a company formed to hold the Eagle Ford acreage. Hilcorp will own the remaining 60 percent."

and another article

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1419804520100614

nunthewiser · 15 June 2010

Lol ... funny stuff guys.

I must say this is one of the more creative threads out there

Good call Nun.

oops just did a quick search on some other threads and just realized nothin changes except those holding the bag .......

stefan_invester · 15 June 2010

hey
anyone have any ideas as to how much the offer price will be for these new shares?

cheers
stefan

Sdajii · 15 June 2010

stefan_invester said:
hey
anyone have any ideas as to how much the offer price will be for these new shares?

cheers
stefan

Your speculation is as good as mine

I've been pondering the same thing. They've been in the high 80s, but not above 70c or so for more than about a month. 65-70c? I certainly hope we get to buy some rather than being diluted by 'sophisticated' rug pullers, er friends of the board, er investors.

Speculation is just for fun though, we'll know very soon.

jancha · 15 June 2010

stefan_invester said:
hey
anyone have any ideas as to how much the offer price will be for these new shares?

cheers
stefan

How about a 10%-15% discount on average price of around 85c over the last fortnight period....maybe 74-75c?
Will the public get a bite of the cherry tho?

stefan_invester · 15 June 2010

yeah,
cant wait to find out
i was also thinking somewhere around the 0.75c range..

just also wondering what this mean for the current SP?
does anyone know?

cheers

Sdajii · 15 June 2010

75c seems a little optimistic to me, given that it's so recent that they were trading for less than that. On the last day of May, about two weeks ago, they traded for 72c. Earlier in May, that's last month, they were trading in the 50s. In April, that's just the month before last, they were trading in the 40s. I think they're worth more than a dollar, but I can't see a large amount being raised at 75c unless they go to sophisticated investors, which would suck.

AngusSmart · 15 June 2010

every share i've owned thats done c/r in the past has been at about half of what they were last trading at. i think somewhere around 40-50c would be more realistic.

hopefully we get a chunk of the pie!

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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