AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

I will have a close eye on AUT come Monday open.

I am weighted about 40% AUT at this stage but might take the inevitable price drop as a good opportunity to put a few more back in the bag!

Assuming some kind person wants to sell some to me at a reasonable discount!


Just had a check on the price of our commodity....natural gas now $4.80 ! Will help pay off those well costs 20% faster!

http://www.oil-price.net/

Just found this, a very interesting article on improvements in production and decline rates over the past year.

Looks like the fraccing is getting better with every well contributing to the underlying economic performance of each well.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-gas-Producers-Focus-Shifting-to-Wet-Gas.html

hey

what do you guys think will happen on monday
after this really good rally for AUT last week??
any thoughts???
thanksss

stefan_invester said:

hey

what do you guys think will happen on monday
after this really good rally for AUT last week??
any thoughts???
thanksss

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Im guessing it will go up, down or be the same. just kidding.
Fundamentally theres a lot to help the price rise within the stock and its parameters. Who knows what the externala market will throw at us. 24 hours is a long time these days .

Focus on a longer temr then monday on this stock and at present imo things look very good.

condog said:

No sign of Agent perhaps he did choke on his morning tea in response to the above post after all. RIP Agent.

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Hope not condog we wouldn't want the ADI tread to cease.
Is it a case of credibility with management or is it justification for selling too soon?
However it will be interesting to see how long AUT can continue to hold up under present market conditions.
I guess it all comes down to holders belief in AUTs management & news to come.
Slipperz you wont be getting my shares in a hurry.

condog

i think you misunderstand my reasoning to exit aut.

volatility is of prime concern to me.. it drives all sorts of things, commodity prices are volatile, and oil is very much in that category.. but of more concern to me is the reasoning behind all the turnbull news not being disclosed to the markets atm.. and the aut lack of funds for the future.

yes aut will be and is a no brainer, in a lot of ways, and i absolutely will be revisiting the share and have enjoyed the massive profits i have acquired with cashing in.. but equally there are reasons for me to keep cautious. .and i respect the absolute need for capital and the difficulties of getting that in volatile markets, until aut has a clear path forward, the desire to be in it is not there by me at all..


i feel you absolutely wrong on the volatility of the markets globally and locally, in every respect..

the opec interventions into the oil markets a long time ago to drive up the prices has had its impact, and its speculated they wont intervene again and turns the taps down yet again unless $60 prices are evident

this a few weeks back on market volatility having the impacts it does on the oil prices

Kuwait: market sentiment cause oil price volatility


Kuwaiti minister says price volatility in international oil market not driven by fundamentals.


KUWAIT CITY - Market sentiment and not fundamentals are driving price volatility in the international oil market, Kuwait's oil minister said on Wednesday.

"Market sentiment, not fundamentals," Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah al-Sabah told reporters when asked what is behind recent oil price volatility.

"Look at what happened to the euro and the strength of the dollar, of course."

Oil prices have fluctuated sharply, dropping to well below 70 dollars a barrel on Tuesday, a few weeks after hitting almost 90 dollars. The eurozone debt crisis and its impact on the euro and the dollar has been blamed for the swings.

Oil prices rebounded in Asian trade Wednesday, taking their lead from strong performances in regional stock markets.

New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in July, gained 78 cents to 69.53 dollars a barrel.

Brent North Sea crude for July delivery advanced 31 cents to 69.86 dollars.

The Kuwaiti minister said OPEC will continue watching movements in the oil market, but ruled out the need for an emergency meeting now.

"The bell is not ringing yet," he said.

Sheikh Ahmad, whose country is OPEC's fifth-largest producer, rejected considering a price of 65 dollars a barrel as a "floor" for OPEC to act.

"No. This will (only) draw our attention," he said.



i also am at odds on you regards the asx market and global markets volatility

despite your very unreadable graph, i am not convinced of anything

my research tells me a complete different story on volatility

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/may2010/pi20100520_742189.htm


also this from the asx leads me to a differing view to yours condog




i feel the jvp all have great futures should they be sufficiently funded to deal with the future ahead

despite our strong disagreement on the volatility of oil and the global markets, i will remain out of aut until i see some evidence aut has the ability to be in the right shape for the future.. once its dilutions are done, it market updates are more accurate.. volatility dies down globally and it has the cash in hand and ready to go, i think a revisit to aut will be the order of the day for me..

Agent glad to see your still alive, i was getting worried. I respect you enough to happily agree to disagree.

my graph has private data on it, but you can clearly see the convergence beginning.

I see 2010 oil prices not necesarily responding to the BP leak, however further out i see big legislative restrictions and safety costs limiting gulf production by between 250,000 and 500,000 bopd from the gulf.

New investments rely on $60+ to get off the ground so, i see pressure above $60. The target range for OPEC is $70-80. So theres plenty of factors interlocking to support AUT production economics.

The play itself we know is good, know need to say anymore on that.

In terms of global certainty. Indeed plenty of major problems, and markets are and will remain volatilve for some time. But US looks like its bottomed, EU has big issues, but will drag on and, both will still need oil in good quantities and gas.

China electricity has plumeted which is a concern, but is rebounding now, so hopefully they have addressed the manufacturing and inventory issues causing this. The AUD is so closely linked to Chinese electricity production graphs its unbeleivable.

From a drilling and capital problem, as ive outlined in other posts $5-$20M CR has basically no real effect on AUT sp , around 2.5 -6 or 7 cents max, post CR.

For holders the CGT implications of trading out are more then that. Its a no brainer imo to stay in and ride this baby as they continually ad value. The bigger we get the less CR's hurt. Bring it on and drill drill drill.

Sadly i think you might be watching us run away and away, while you wit for a TO upping on ADI which should come, but may not. If its pulled , ADI and AUT will consolidate imo.

I was certain it was going 50c plus back at 26c when many said i was wrong. At 87c im even more certain we are going well over the $1 mark sooner rather then later.

With the ADI i see it getting up on July 1 or if raised. Dont be surprised if many jump ship on july 1. If they do it will casue a mad panic into AUT nad to a lesser extent EKA.

Look at our continual limited sellers. Its all lining up nicely. This is being casued by a consistent bigger buy volume. We closed at an all time high on good volume, which is another very good technical. These longhorn wells "if" they are as goos as im thinking will catch many including yourself with your pants down.

Lets just wait see, its not long now.

The balance of probabilities must be that AWE will raise the bid for ADI and the balance of probabilities must be that the most significant short-term action will be in the ADI share price. ADI and EKA shares have the greater link to S/L development and the JVPs are cashed up for that continued development. Longhorn & Ipanema may follow earlier than last planned but there has been no mention of that yet. Predictions look nigh on impossible because of the AWE joker card. I know how I'd like to be positioned later in the year but the jury's still out on the next few weeks, imo.

estseon said:

The balance of probabilities must be that AWE will raise the bid for ADI and the balance of probabilities must be that the most significant short-term action will be in the ADI share price. ADI and EKA shares have the greater link to S/L development and the JVPs are cashed up for that continued development. Longhorn & Ipanema may follow earlier than last planned but there has been no mention of that yet. Predictions look nigh on impossible because of the AWE joker card. I know how I'd like to be positioned later in the year but the jury's still out on the next few weeks, imo.

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No one has to be a genius to know how youd like to be positioned, but for the sake of the new comers, he means hed rather be in AUT.

AUT is sitting at $0.81 as I speak, and has been as low as $0.795.

oh how I wish I'd refrained from buying some other shares and kept some 'share' money aside to buy some more AUT at this price!

Ah well it's alot easier said than done.

(disclaimer I hold)

wow
its only been 1:35 minutes in trading,
and the volume is already at 1.2million.
just makes you wonder what will be happening later
this afternoon.......

There has been loads of volume today! finally we're seeing action on this share
Regarding the attachment from comsec are these just Buy trades? or are they Sell aswell?

AngusSmart said:

There has been loads of volume today! finally we're seeing action on this share
Regarding the attachment from comsec are these just Buy trades? or are they Sell aswell?

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Well if you think about it, it is someones buy and someone elses sell. So to answer your question, each trade is both a buy and sell - subconsciously you're thinking the same thing by describing the transaction as a trade

lemontree said:

Well if you think about it, it is someones buy and someone elses sell. So to answer your question, each trade is both a buy and sell - subconsciously you're thinking the same thing by describing the transaction as a trade

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Depends how big the buy or sell is eg. one buyer could take out ten sellers.
Good to see that AUT has support under the markets down turn.
In comparison to EKA & ADI the volume ( 1.5 mil ) of AUTs is considerably higher & holding around 82c.
Luck would have it as i sold out of my blue chip shares two months ago only to buy an apartment & increase in my holding of ADI & AUT to which have made ground over the period whereas the blue chip shares i had have dropped 10% - 15%.
The story unfolding with the likes of AUT & ADI must have strong merit being able to hold steady under these volatile conditions of uncertainty in the market.

Rancho Flow Rates have been released on the ASX.

Rancho Grande #1H

Gas Production Rate: 3.19 (mmscf/d)
Condensate Production Rate: 1,170 (bbls/d)
Average Daily Equivalent Gas Rate: 18 (mmscfe/d)

These are the figures of the maximum production rate (over 24 hours), flowing on a reduced choke setting.

I'll be honest here, I'm not entirely aware of what ALL this means, but it doesn't prevent me from posting the facts .

They seem like pretty good figures from what i know.

Sharejon said:

Rancho Flow Rates have been released on the ASX.

Rancho Grande #1H

Gas Production Rate: 3.19 (mmscf/d)
Condensate Production Rate: 1,170 (bbls/d)
Average Daily Equivalent Gas Rate: 18 (mmscfe/d)

These are the figures of the maximum production rate (over 24 hours), flowing on a reduced choke setting.

I'll be honest here, I'm not entirely aware of what ALL this means, but it doesn't prevent me from posting the facts .

They seem like pretty good figures from what i know.

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It means a damn good result and one of the best in the Eagleford. On a reduced choke this is and outstanding result. Lets wait and see how this testing pans out in terms of decline rates.

But a very very positive announcment.

condog said:

It means a damn good result and one of the best in the Eagleford. On a reduced choke this is and outstanding result. Lets wait and see how this testing pans out in terms of decline rates.

But a very very positive announcment.

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Hey condog how far away do you predict an up date on the Turnbull wells?
Anything negative under present circumstances could see Aut drop back to 70c?

Janch im expectin multiple announcments in the next two weeks.

I think we will see the revised drilling program

I think we will have a Turnbull flowing to sales update possibly by friday with IP's next week.

Dito for the other turnbull the folloing weeks.

Then T3 and IP i assume. Early July = Kowalick, then im guessing the new program will kick in with extra wells thru to late 2010.

Lots of reasons for upside imo.

Inevitably int he current market we will have little pull backs, but the general trend imo will be up consistently. A CR will rattle a few idiots in late 2010 or early 2011 if it happens, but ignore the noise.

jancha said:

Hey condog how far away do you predict an up date on the Turnbull wells?
Anything negative under present circumstances could see Aut drop back to 70c?

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There was an ASX announcement this morning regarding the Turnbull wells. All seems to be going to plan. There was also a presentation to be shown in Melbourne and Sydney this week highlighting AUT's strong position. IMO the share price will stabilise around the 85 cent mark untill the production rates for the turnbull wells are available next week and then get a kick-a-long.
I am a holder

Thats a good presentation, alot of info all in the one spot!

And an increase in acreage to 2000 in longhorn, cant argue with that!