Looking at those graphs for drill and frac times in the AUT presentation, they just keep getting quicker with every well.
They are running like a "well oiled" machine.
Agent I trust AUT very much, there has been no recent precedent to doubt them at all. Perhaps your source made a few mistakes.
Looking forward very much to Ranch IP's next week and T1 flow announcment id imagine would accompaniy it.
One has to be extatic with Morgan flow rates at 1300ish bocpd. $2.5M per mth towards well repayments, got to love that. a little over 2 motnhs and its paying other wells off. That compound payment will massively accellerate hilcorp repayments imho.
Hartleys came out with a look through valuation on AUT of $1 when comparing it to the T/O price for ADI.
87c is a nice overdue close, but im thinking next week will see many new highs imo. The market overall on my graphs is turning more positve and should see some boost to the oil price and general risk tolerance imo. Combine that with Rancho Ip's, Turnbull flow and possibly two turnbulls flowing, we could se a big week or two for AUt.
hey condog.. up early and asking for a chat with me i see..
happy to reply
i sorta gotup early b4 a huge ride this cold morning.. but have to say i basically chocked on my wheetbix..
lets begin with a replay to this post of yours..
well completion times..
yes they have improved significantly, although some recent ones were a tad longer than i expected. but by an large its evident hilcorp have it nailed..
re your trust of aut.. your trust makes for me being very disconcerted.. i check every announcement made by the jvp, and critically i discount them as being accurate and correct until it matches up with my data which is 100% accurate. and thus far there is grave concern by me solely for the accuracy of the last aut longhorn announcement..
when it gets down to it, if your comments on how accurate the sources are and whether what they see is what is going down.. that aspect i have already addressed in my post.. does someone who has seen frac after frac occur around their ranch really know what a frac looks like? time will tell.
with regard to the well event on turnbull 3.. 100% accurate and beyond doubt that the well was at 5850 feet last friday the 28th may.. given it takes some 19 days to drill a well for hilcorp.. imho the well would be drilling a lateral atm, and not waiting to spud as the announcement clearly states.
who do i trust? generally my research over anything. and i invest accordingly. so if things are not correct, and they clearly are not.. then thats the right signal to withdraw in a volatile market..
re the comments on morgan.. yes the well is brilliant, i am eager as anything to see how the 90 day flow rates translates. but thus far the well is as i said b4, one of the biggest producing wells in texas for a number of days..
yes hartleys have put that price target down in the absence of any dilution..
ok this is the where you really lost it for me. the weetbix choking section perhaps... i have to question this comment.. and where your data and graphs are coming from..
"87c is a nice overdue close, but im thinking next week will see many new highs imo. The market overall on my graphs is turning more positve and should see some boost to the oil price and general risk tolerance imo. "
.87 was extraordinary.. i sure never expected it..
next week will see many new highs.. hmmmm .. that one was a beauty.. you and i are at opposite poles on this, i think aut was on a plateau at about .70 - .80 the run yesterday was for me an indication of some pretty remarkable buying.. i was not able to understand what the catalyst was (and i am being sacrastic
) my view is that the current market is extremely volatile.. infact its beyond belief how volatile it is atm..
RE "The market overall on my graphs is turning more positve, "
OK condog.. have to ask what graphs your using and whether you can post one up for me?
RE : "and should see some boost to the oil price and general risk tolerance imo"
can you post up some graphs on that and again, i really thing you need to check what data your looking and whether these comment you made are indeed accurate in any way.. and how you weigh the risk in these markets..
just as an indication, my data tells me the this, and keep in mind this was by and large done and dusted after your comment..
June 4 (Bloomberg) --
Stocks plunged, sending benchmark U.S. indexes to four-month lows, commodities slid and Treasuries rallied as lower-than-forecast American job growth and a widening government debt crisis fueled concern the global economic recovery will slow. Hungary’s currency, equities and bonds plummeted.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 3.4 percent to 1,064.88 at 4 p.m. in New York, with only three stocks in the gauge rising. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 10,000 and both measures closed at the lowest levels since Feb. 8.
Oil fell 4.2 percent to near $71.51 a barrel, while tin sank 9.5 percent to lead losses in metals. Ten-year Treasury yields decreased 17 basis points to 3.2 percent. The euro slid below $1.20 for the first time since March 2006 and the yen climbed against 16 major counterparts. The forint tumbled to an almost 15-month low against the dollar on concern Hungary may default.
TIA