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AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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AngusSmart
turnbull wells 1,2,3 & one more in ipanema acreage will be drilled by hilcorp free carry for AUT (eka & adi not in these wells)to complete farm out.
 

Any ideas as to when the flow rates will come out on Turnbull #2H ?
Share price dropping in line with the POO or the market in general?
Currently 69c.
Just wondering if ADI would be a safer option with it's 40c buy offer in place where as AUT seems to be more vunerable to further price falls.
 
Sure is jancha....go ahead and buy some today ! Run out and load up on it if you've got the play money. I'm wishing I had more cash to load up on ADI.
 
Dropped another 2.5c this morning in the first 50 minutes of trading. Looks like AUT has run pretty hard fairly quickly and it's having a breather whilst we wait for concrete news from the JV participants.
 
If the ADI info next week is strong, then ADI should go up, AUT should then get dragged up with it, AUT has these extra wells on the way...Doesn't that make AUT an even better buy right now? I guess it will depend on the success of these new wells...I've topped up my AUT in the last few days. (I hold AUT, ADI and EKA)
 
Id imagine Ip's out for Rancho next week and an update on Turnbulls.

AUT is way too cheap imo and a danger at present of similar fete to ADI.

Rancho and turnbulls should be factored in, but the current consolidation has wiped out Morgan let alone Ranch and Turnbull anticipations.

92c should be easy in 2 weeks time on tha back of Morgan easing back into a more positive market, Rancho and possibly two turnbulls.

All opinion so DYOR.
 
Slipperz said:
Shell has amassed a pretty impressive acreage this year.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/royal-dutch-shell-plc-acquires-new-positions-in-us-tight-gas-95088679.html
Click to expand...

In addition, as part of its on-going acreage build strategy, Shell has acquired ~250,000 net acres (1,000 square kilometers) of mineral rights in the Eagle Ford shale play, in South Texas, in 2010. These undeveloped acreage positions are in the liquids rich window of the Eagle Ford play. Shell will be the operator in this highly contiguous acreage, and will be able to integrate these new assets into its existing South Texas operations, where Shell has been active for many years.


I took a stake in AUT on Friday.. I think its trading pretty low at the moment too considering how much the marketing is starting to take notice of the Eagleford. ..
 
adobee said:
I took a stake in AUT on Friday.. I think its trading pretty low at the moment too considering how much the marketing is starting to take notice of the Eagleford. ..
Click to expand...

Very much agree , its becoming pandamic in terms of media attention in the US. starting to pick up speed in AUS. But with cash flow soon to start, well results due, acerage prices climbing, take overs picking up , its all heading in the right direction. The oil price softened but seems to have platuaed, and with China in double digits, plus US growing slowly, world 4.5% growth it looks good at present. Hurricanes and Korea may also help with upward pressure.
 
i raid an intersting opinion this morning that I totally agree with and is worth noting.

Obama's reaction to the BP spill has added significant political , environmental and economic risk to off shore drilling. Yesterday we raid news about Shell making massive acquisitions in the Eagleford.

These majors who have billions of dollars of offshore investment funds on hold, need to hedge risk and find other developments as priorities. Right now the Eagleford is the obvious choice for companies servicing US demand.

Expect imo to see massive amounts of new takeover and acquisition in all the US shale plays. In particular the Eagleford, becasue its less developed and controlled by a diversity of smaller players compared to other shale plays.

Yet another massive price catalyst for all Eagleford players int he zone.
 
hey
im not very good with company announcements, but has anyone read the ADI announcement concerning the AWE takeover?
and does anyone know if this is good news for us AUT holders or not?
thankss
 
Its alot of pages but i'm reading thru some of it now...

The Independent Expert’s preferred fair market value of each Adelphi Share is $0.61. The AEL Offer represents a discount of $0.2 (or 34.43%) to this preferred fair market value. The Independent Expert has concluded that the AEL Offer is neither fair nor reasonable.

Its a pretty good ploy really for awe and adi, along with the other partners as it's promoting the company.. should see a bit of a rise out of this i'd imagine.
 
I think it helped AUT to rise today.

Market is still pretty skitttish with plenty of sellers about so all in all AUT did well today imo.

Frac results for Rancho must be very close now.........
 
Well the target statement was released after the market closed.. so if anything we'll see what immediate effects it'll have on AUT tomorrow. Today the sp could have been limited to punters closing their positions after picking up aut from 67 - 70c from last week. This of course is just my own opinion! But the target statement was definitely good news, if ADI has a best estimate of 61c with an upper limit of 1.10, AUT should of course be valued higher accordingly
 
Definitely excellent news for AUT.

AWE will have to raise to 60+ cents to get over the line at least.

I reckon the will get there.

If they do thats brilliant for AUT.

ITs too cheap, but at 60c it gives mcap of $86million

I assume if it gets up which im thinking it might, but thats no given, there will be $15-20M looking for a new home, predominently in AUT. Some will go to EKA, some possibly to AZZ or elswhere but im assuming 75% of that will look for a home in AUT.

Even 1/2 that at say 37.5% of $15M, youve got at 80c average 7 Million shares on the purchase side.

At my full estimate that will put 15+ Million shares on the buy side over time. Imagine that buy pressure with this tightly held stock.

I think a lot of ADI holders presume they can sell at 60c and jump into AUT or EKA. They forget evryone will want the same, so it will come at a cost, but not to us.

Also from a peer valuation, its well established by broker valuations and traders that prior to Turnbulls AUT is 2:1 value or slightly better then ADI.

Right now and after a takeover ADI will have been at a slight premium to that Ratio. But at say 60c its reasonable to assume AUt is worth roughly $1.05+ imo . Then T1 is set to have IP's released this week, and T2 likely next week, im guessing. In that case AUt will have a premium on that ratio.

If T1 is good at say 1500+ then by my guestimates, we could say AUT is reasoanbly better then $1.20 as fair value.

Ive had a short term target of $1.37 for some time and im still a bit stunned we are where we are, especiially given recent results and recent TO activity. But given the broader market its partially understandable imo. Im thinking if we get some confidence return even for a few weeks straight we might see this target hit in the not distant future. But thats my guess.

Right now it looks like either a suckers rally or turn around this week. Stay tuned, your guess is as good as mine with the ords.

This is all opinion. Do your own research, seek advice and make your own decisions that your accountable for. Do not act on the above.
 
well it all sounds very good
thanks for all the feedback

guess its all up to how the market, and the people are feeling tomorrow
but i have a pretty good feeling that something good will happen
lets hope soo
 
stefan_invester said:
well it all sounds very good
thanks for all the feedback

guess its all up to how the market, and the people are feeling tomorrow
but i have a pretty good feeling that something good will happen
lets hope soo
Click to expand...

That good feeling might be delayed with the US & UK holiday so the market should be quiet tomorrow.
Might have a slight rise in sp but unless there's news out about Turnbull or Rancho nothing significant will go up with any of ADI AUT or EKA imo.
 
hmm true
sounds like it might be a good opportunity to buy in some more

its funny how all the good things always happen when other markets don't trade, or like on a friday...
 
Assessment: Aurora represents a sound investment in energy production
with ~20% interest across its permits, in 490 Eagle Ford wells. Upside value
of over $2 per share.
Click to expand...

From stock analysis news letter. Peter Strachan. Good to see more analysts placing values on what they regard as clearly undervalued.
 
If youve just clicked to this post my previous one is better.

But also note with AUT we are going forward while the rest of the market has been hammered. The additional buying power "if" this continues is astounding.

DYOR and seek advice. But this is when fortunes are made. Its risky stuff, but can possibly pay dividends. Dont be stupid, just note it is imo when fortunes are made. seek advice and DYOR. I cant predict what will happen, so this is only provided as an example not as advice.

Ive made more in GFC1 and now in what i term GFC 1.5 then any other time in my life. This volatility is one mans worry and anothers opportunity.

Selling out of crap and moving to good stocks is what i did a week and a half ago, as a result im up a lot.

Another strategy is to with two equal shares moving iin opposite directions for no apparent reason ( and by the way, you need to know why stock move) so its best to use similar one , or ones you really know). Trade the difference. Eg: ADI and AUt at 2:1, EKA and ADI at 2:1, AUt at 4:2.

Eg if holding EKA at 20c and AUT slips substantially below 80c swap shares. Then if that ration becomes > 4:1 swap back or move to ADI.

Note this does not take into account the ADI TO situation which is difficult to predict.

Ive been doing it for some time and with AZZ as well and managed to make very good use of the volatility. sorry but Not giving away my AZZ ratio as its far more complex and difficult.

sometimes it takes some tough decisions. For example when i ditched a lot of stock, i took big capitalised loss. But since then ive pulled back the same capitalised gain, plus have a twice as big uncapitlised gain ont he same money instead of a greater loss. So my position is actually a huge plus better position, by taking that tuff decision.

Taking the loss was risky, as was pouring lots of money into one stock, but i took the risk and have been rewarded. It doesnt always work out that way. Sometimes ive been burnt.

Im not encouraging you to do the same, simply just providing it to help others.

All the best, theres more then 50 ways to skin a cat.
 
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