AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[AngusSmart]

Loving life at the moment too, need to hang onto Aut for a while longer however..

Bought adi lastweek @ 27c.. great that there is some attention on both of them now! hanging on for the ride!

 

[eopiela]

Rancho won't be out tomorrow, no matter how much we wish it would be. Pipeline to sales is not built yet.

US natural gas reserves at at an all time high yet the price continues to rise.

Either consumption needs to rise or the price is bound to take a hit at some point.

Was a good week for AUT holders again. Personally I took a bit of profit off my AUT for a speculative buy on AED which has had a nice run up this week also. If they do happen to hit an oil reservoir in Brunei the price rise will be spectacular.

General market conditions seem to be negative yet these two stocks have strong buy/sell ratios and are in a strong uptrend.

Looks like Monday will be a sea of red. I hope Rancho results don't get released on Monday like the last amazing result got trashed by a wave of panicked sellers.

 

[condog]

More relevant right now is the massive day we just had and the ADI takeover action.

Its rediculously under priced imo for a takeover offer.

I hope like hell we dont get one for AUT. The real value is just about to be untapped and any takeover should be vermently rejected imo , by any JVP's and thier boards.

Right now i value AUt over $1, in 12-18 months that could possibly be $3-$6 depending on results. This is my own opinion. But its also the reason these takeover offers may come thick and fast for all JVP's.

EKA must be a sitting duck as well given its exposure and low market cap.

 

[Slipperz]

Oh yes indeed what a day.

I just made the largest one day profit I've ever made on market on the worst day in yonks.

And the sell side only has 150 000 left after the closing auction frenzy which will make tomorrows action pretty interesting.

Well done to all holders !
:bananasmi

 

[condog]

Oh yes indeed what a day.

I just made the largest one day profit I've ever made on market on the worst day in yonks.

And the sell side only has 150 000 left after the closing auction frenzy which will make tomorrows action pretty interesting.

Well done to all holders !
:bananasmi

Yes i must say some pretty staggering :bananasmi un realized profits on my books :bananasmi . Last week i sold almost all my other holdings and put most of it in to AUT. :bananasmi

:bananasmi What timing. :bananasmi



DYOR and seek expert advice. I been wrong once and will be again. :bananasmi

 

[Sharejon]

Slipperz same here.

I'm glad something caused the price to rise today, otherwise financially it would have been quite a dull day.

And I was thinking the same Condog, EKA looks quite vulnerable for a takeover. Once again any sign of takeover talks could lead to a dramatic price rise for EKA, however I hope that the company isn't sold out for a 'cheap' price (relative to the potential of the company).

 

[condog]

Slipperz same here.

I'm glad something caused the price to rise today, otherwise financially it would have been quite a dull day.

And I was thinking the same Condog, EKA looks quite vulnerable for a takeover. Once again any sign of takeover talks could lead to a dramatic price rise for EKA, however I hope that the company isn't sold out for a 'cheap' price (relative to the potential of the company).

Sharejon are you aware of the ADI takeover offer today at 40c. It appears you might not be. Thats part of what triggered the price rise today.

We need to reject all offers till we get our real values built in.

We also need to make the next financial year to avoid CGT implications, better still July next year to allow all holders to have discoutn CGT and two financial years to offload some profits.

Reject reject reject

 

[5haretrader]

Condog I am of the opinion that an AUT takeover from AWE is not likely. They have something like a 35% share in ADI which is why their bid today holds some substance. For AUT, it would take something completely out of the blue for a takeover to occur. Or am I completely off the rails with where takeover discussion is going?

 

[condog]

Sharejon my confusin was the way you worded it you sounded unsure what triggered the price rise.

Too early to know, but AUT has a well established value of double ADI. By both brokers and the markets. With Turnbulls now drilling and fraccing, that gap is set to widen. So at 40c, the pressure is now on AUT valuations to be realistic or ADI holders will jump ship while the margins are reduced.

In the short term while the offer stands, pressure is on ADI holders and purchasers to keep the price above 40c to stop the takeover buying on the market. They as i understand it cannot buy under 40c.

This in turn will likely see a second offer by them or another circling shark. Again pushing AUt higher as the relative valuations need to stay gapped imo, with so many cross traders helping it move.

On value alone these are too cheap let alone with takeover offers looming. Expect some big action. the buy sell spreads for AUT look to a very impressive day again tommorrow.

Its a case of you want em, you pay the price.

 

[5haretrader]

I like your thinking Condog, AUT has alot of things going for it at the moment The only thing stopping me from investing more into AUT over another company at the moment is that AUT has not experienced any retrace of sorts since its SP took off in February. Any thoughts on a possible retrace in the not to distant future? I know the price is probably still undervalued considerably, but even the best success stories in the past have had hiccups along the way.

 

[Sharejon]

Sharejon are you aware of the ADI takeover offer today at 40c. It appears you might not be. Thats part of what triggered the price rise today.

We need to reject all offers till we get our real values built in.

We also need to make the next financial year to avoid CGT implications, better still July next year to allow all holders to have discoutn CGT and two financial years to offload some profits.

Reject reject reject

Yes I was well aware of that when typing the reply. Don't ask why i said "something" instead of "ADI take-over", as simply I don't know!

I was pleasantly surprised to find out about the takeover this morning just after I saw there were over 120 million buyers in the ADI collumn, which clearly wasn't the norm.

 

[condog]

I like your thinking Condog, AUT has alot of things going for it at the moment The only thing stopping me from investing more into AUT over another company at the moment is that AUT has not experienced any retrace of sorts since its SP took off in February. Any thoughts on a possible retrace in the not to distant future? I know the price is probably still undervalued considerably, but even the best success stories in the past have had hiccups along the way.

We had an intraday retrace from 71.5c to 63c last week on the greece hicups. Problem is more wells = more underpriced. And the drilling and fraccing has not stopped, adding significant value constantly. If anything due to the overall market sentiment we have failed to keep value. Morgan results came out on the big down day last monday. We finished flat despite a 2000bopde well, which is crazy. that thing can pay itself off in 30-45 days and help top up to pay off an additional well every 20 days.

Since morgan we have only moved 10c which is crazy.

The buy sell disparity says it all. Dont expect any massive discounts unless something goes worng???

 

[adobee]

whats the AUT announcment out today .. i cant see it yet ? Can anyone see it at this stage ?? Please advise if you can

 

[cooper276]

I can access it via the ASX site Adobee.
Just a company presentation to be given at the 'Annual Global Investment Conference in London'.
On first glance, doesn't appear to tell us anything we don't already know - looks like just ramping up the PR exposure.

Cheers

 

[Sharejon]

Does anybody have any predictions as to when the Rancho announcement will be made?

AUT has slipped back a little bit today, but i will not be joining the selling queue anytime soon!

 

[condog]

Does anybody have any predictions as to when the Rancho announcement will be made?

AUT has slipped back a little bit today, but i will not be joining the selling queue anytime soon!

I believe they are waiting on the pipeline, wont be too long. I wouldnt worry we know they are going to find liquid gold, so its good they can do so carefully,

 

[estseon]

The ADI board has committed to a response by 31 May, which is a Monday. It will possibly wish to leave shareholders a bit more time to think about it before the formal start of the offer period. It's possible that we might see something by Thursday 27 May. So, not too long to wait. They've already hinted strongly that they are expecting at least 1 rig to return to S/L and they've confirmed again the ramp-up proposal starting next year.

That response document should give us the opportunity of getting a better view of what AUT might be worth. The ADI board has indicated strongly that 40 cents undervalues ADI considerably and that has implications for AUT's share price.

I would guess that, if AWE goes all the way, some ADI holders, those who want to stay invested in the project, will wait to pocket the 'control premium' that AWE will have to pay and will then migrate into AUT & EKA.

Condog, as it so happens I earned a few free shares on the trade.

As to the rest of my holding - we have a budget scheduled for 22 June and I have to switch in before or get screwed by the new CGT rates that they are proposing. There's been so much publicity about it that they can't do a U-turn. On the basis of rumours, the difference could mean pocketing one third more cash if I act before 22 June. It's a no-brainer but it's essentially a UK tax issue. I won't be able to wait for the bid premium from AWE.

 

[Sharejon]

Esteon I Agree when you're talking about ADI holders eventually migrating into EKA/AUT.

Even if the takeover doesn't go through, if it inflates the SP enough then I'm sure many will think of taking the journey to AUT and EKA.

 

[Slipperz]

I believe they are waiting on the pipeline, wont be too long. I wouldnt worry we know they are going to find liquid gold, so its good they can do so carefully,

Speaking of pipelines, the infrastructure players are showing confidence in the overall risk profile of the eagleford play.

Capacity increased 150%!!!!

"Due to the high level of interest expressed by producers, Kinder Morgan and Copano have each increased their committed capacity from 150,000 to 375,000 MMBtu per day to Eagle Ford Gathering for transportation on Kinder Morgan's Laredo-to-Katy pipeline and processing at Copano's Houston Central processing plant. Additionally, the joint venture expects the first phase of construction to significantly extend beyond the original 22 miles previously announced."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kinder-Morgan-Energy-Partners-prnews-2544557938.html?x=0&.v=1&.pf=career-work&mod=pf-career-work

 

[condog]

Good find slipperz

Also of note in yesterdays ADI release

CR appears to have been done becase they intend to complete 6-8 wells in the next 6-9 months. Thats an advancement of the drilling program.

Secaondly they are beginning a 250 well drilling program in 2010 / 2011

Very interesting and very news worthy. Perhaps a MASSIVE leak by ADI.

Ans hence why AWE tried to scoop it up at a bargain basement undervalued price.

I just sent Jon Stewart an email,

Hi Jon

Yesterday ADi leaked in thier T/O defence announcment to holders they have a 6-8 well plan for the next 6-9 months planned for sugar loaf . They also said a 250 well program is beginning in 2010/2011

If this is the cas AUt should release thier version today, we dont want a low ball takeover offer or underpriced CR like ADI holder copped.

Keep up the brilliant job.

Ta.