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It closed at 2.72 yesterday, 2.78 now means its up 6cents.
AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas
- Thread starter nioka
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Sdajii
Sdaji
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The difference is calculated based on the previous day's closing price, not the current day's opening price.
Some great posts about different strategies being best for different people, and I agree, borrowing to invest is not for the beginner!
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Closed at 2.72 yesterday.
Should see some steady tickle of buying after the past 2 weeks of steady trickle of selling imo
ah crap- im an idiot. Sorry for the stupid question guys!!
Now im just sitting waiting wishing for it to come back down to 2.65
Not sure i understand why the price jumped so much when there were 93k buyers and 1.1m sellers?
Shouldnt that make it drop?
Now im just sitting waiting wishing for it to come back down to 2.65
Not sure i understand why the price jumped so much when there were 93k buyers and 1.1m sellers?
Shouldnt that make it drop?
ITs a bit hard to see but in june last year the market overall had about a 5% dip over a few weeks, and on the back of a CR, AUT got hammered and people paniced for about 3 weeks. Problem was back then, just as now, those rigs kept drilling and the crews kept fraccing. It was only one rig and one crew, and good old aut added value so fast it soon went up to find value.
Whats your thoughts right now , with 4 rigs drilling , and a full time frac crew. My thoughts are its adding value at around or just below 4 times the pace it was last year. Admittedly its a much bigger company right now, in fact its around 5 times as large.
I know what my guess is, and its in line with Euroz more so then the crap thats happeining today or tommorrow. Dont get me wrong the overall market is due for a pullback, and if i was holding a stock like woolworth or virgin or quantas, harvey norman etc, id be worried as the oil price will affect them, but im not too worried about my oilers, as right now those margins are rediculously good. But AUT is adding relative value at a rediculous rate comparred to those companies.
You may have noted in the last presentation the prices they have been selling at, which where fantastic and are now far better. Im quietly confident.
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ah crap- im an idiot. Sorry for the stupid question guys!!
Now im just sitting waiting wishing for it to come back down to 2.65
Not sure i understand why the price jumped so much when there were 93k buyers and 1.1m sellers?
Shouldnt that make it drop?
Buyers and sellers in the depth generally mean very little.
Good to know. Another lesson learnt!
So essentially theres no way to predict whats going to happen on opening?
ah crap- im an idiot. Sorry for the stupid question guys!!
Now im just sitting waiting wishing for it to come back down to 2.65
Not sure i understand why the price jumped so much when there were 93k buyers and 1.1m sellers?
Shouldnt that make it drop?
When your watching the volumes you need to remember that as the price goes up sells are disapearing and new higher buys are getting added to the list which increases the buy volumes and reduces the sell volumes.
When the price is dropping the exact opposite happens, the seller volumes grow and the buyer volumes reduce. But eventually you reach a point where sellers are prepard to not sell any cheaper and buyers start seeing value. At that point which you described above, the volumes indicate selling pressure , but theres actually equilibrium or if anything upward pressure beginning to happen.
I dont agree at all. they often indicate the momentum , and when you watch a stock close enough they nearly always give you warning of whats about to happen.
After each CR and pullback with AUT, we have seen the seller volumes mount, as soon as they get about half of the buyers the price has begun to rise and wehn they get to about a third we nearly always punch out a new high that day or the next.
When your watching 10 stock you probably cant notice it, but when your watching one, it can be a reasonably reliable guide. The point where its least accurate though is clearly when its reaching equilibrium and either just turned or about to turn . Where tiny changes can alter the direction.
And when you consider the stocks are controlled by herds of bulls and bears, it often indicates the direction of the herd. Each stock deevelops its own patterns of volumes, and the volumes that change one stock will be entirely different to the next. Its only something you will notice when you focus closely on a stock.
Ok so thats during the trading day. But what of trying to figure out opening momentum?
The first 15min to half hour is crazy and anything can happen. After the first half hour you will generally begin to see the true momentum for the day. Things however sometimes turn around at lunch time as bigger players return from lunch and begin to get a feel for asian trading for the day.
The momentum on the open is always shown in the pre-open quote. Thats not necesarily acurate to the cent, but you can generally see which way its heading, and the size of the move to an extent. Especially if you wrote the values for the close down. You will see a big surge in buyers or sellers which is a good indicator.
Right now we have a million sellers and 500k buyers. I can tell you from experience with aut i think its roughly bottomed for the day and theres no huge up pressure for the rest of the day. Buyers are takeing a wait and see approach imo.
Sometimes however when a fund or institution starts buying or selling they come from off screen and they move the stock a lot with absolutely no notice or warning in the numbers.
I think ill hold my price at 2.65 till lunchtime and then ill reconvene haha.
Just for my own curiosity and learnings, what was the pre-open quote for AUT today.. i cant seem to find it listed anywhere?
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2.58 me thinks
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Yeah scary stuff eh
sure is- very hard to know when to buy. i thought i was getting in good on wed and then yesterday happened. The two trades i made on wed were my first solo trades (been using a broker for the past 5-6 years)... Hopefully they come back good.
Somehow i dont like my chances at getting AUT for 2.65, but i keep second guessing my bids and amending them only to find that i could have got it if i waited.. catch 22 sometimes!
but i guess whats 5-10c if they are going to hit 8 bucks by christmas (supposidly)
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alex you must have a plan when to get in when to get out and stick to it there are plenty more shares
yep- working on that. removing all emotion from share buying is best. I'm learning to do it.
Although, sometimes i just cbf and ill buy if i know its going to do well (like AUT for example), still waiting for them to come down... they are slowly dropping but i doubt they will get low enough for my buy to kick in. I presume on monday they will rocket off and not be seen at these lows again.
i went to an AUT presentation yesterday & a few of us had a chat after the presentation, it's a bigger no brain-er than ever.
key points
1. AUT is currently trading at $10 to $11 boe (pre royalties on 3p)the average on the TSX is $25 to $30 on 2p,AUT will be 2p by the end of the year.
2. gmp commented about the possibility of the reserves being 10 times larger . 20 acre spacings with one well in the chalks & one in the eagleford gives you about 8 times & then you increase the EUR by 30% to 40% & there you go but must be tested first.
i would be more than happy with half that,the point is AUT reserves should increase dramatically in the future.
estseon "the only issue is connectivity between the wells"
if you get connectivity you may lose some EUR but 2 x 600 mboe is better than 750 mboe.
3.AUT should go into field development by mid next year which means multiple wells from one pad as opposed to drilling to retain acreage.cost of wells will come down & tighter well spacings.
4. aut acreage is in the sweet spot of the eagleford as shown on page 12 of the presentation plenty of red dots.
5. drilling & frac crews under control with hilcorp.
i will try to remember more.
key points
1. AUT is currently trading at $10 to $11 boe (pre royalties on 3p)the average on the TSX is $25 to $30 on 2p,AUT will be 2p by the end of the year.
2. gmp commented about the possibility of the reserves being 10 times larger . 20 acre spacings with one well in the chalks & one in the eagleford gives you about 8 times & then you increase the EUR by 30% to 40% & there you go but must be tested first.
i would be more than happy with half that,the point is AUT reserves should increase dramatically in the future.
estseon "the only issue is connectivity between the wells"
if you get connectivity you may lose some EUR but 2 x 600 mboe is better than 750 mboe.
3.AUT should go into field development by mid next year which means multiple wells from one pad as opposed to drilling to retain acreage.cost of wells will come down & tighter well spacings.
4. aut acreage is in the sweet spot of the eagleford as shown on page 12 of the presentation plenty of red dots.
5. drilling & frac crews under control with hilcorp.
i will try to remember more.
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Breaker, be carefull having a definate plan on when to get out. I bought my first parcel of AUT at 30c and if you told me that they may have doubled then I would have planned to sell then- 60c.
Due to learning, reading, asking and harassing smarter people I discovered that they may go higher, heck they may reach a $1. Continued learning and watched to my amazement Aut reach the levels that they are.
And even if you just read what has been reported in the past 2 weeks, you would be pretty confident of a stellar year ahead.
Could you imagine if i'd stuck to the plan of selling at 60c.
I know everyone's financials and trading strategies are different but I think it's un-wise to put definates on sells.
Mir, that was a great post.
Cheers
