AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[MACCA350]

Anyone else watching the pre open?
93k buy
1.1M sell
$2.58 match price

185k in 8 lots already traded at $2.74-$2.80 between 8:30-8:45AM
137k in 10 lots traded yesterday at $2.91 between 4:55-5:45PM
That's 322k(~$900k) in transfers that's not affecting the market move.
What are they and why are they showing in the market trades if they're not on market. If they were a buy they would have pushed the sp up over $3 given the current sell depth. Suppose they are off market transfers being plugged through the system.

Cheers

 

[MACCA350]

You can add another 47k at 9:10AM to those off market trades.......

Cheers

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

185k in 8 lots already traded at $2.74-$2.80 between 8:30-8:45AM

They're all XT (Cross-Trades) meaning that (say) CommSec has a buyer and a seller wanting the same stock (and covering amounts), they don't need to trade them on the market. CommSec opens at 8am so I assume, in practise they're able to start trading internally at this time.

 

[$20shoes]

How to avoid the trap;

1. Dont borrow to invest.
2. Dont set a stop loss.
3. Don't think you can outsmart the system without resolve.
4. If the fundamentals are sound. Hold.
5. Lemming rushes are there from time to time and usually are buying opportunities but only when used in conjunction with 1 to 4.

Wow, that's the worst advice I've seen for ages.

1. Borrow to invest if your system produces positive expectancy. Using other people's money makes you money if you know you absolutely cannot lose in the long run - why wouldn't you borrow?

2. You don't have a system without risk management. Stop losses of some sort are a component that prevents you getting pillaged. Who gives two hoots if you're stopped out of a position? It's of such little consequence. Surely, being stopped out suggests that you mistimed your entry? There's only a probability that price action will move in the direction I was expecting - I'm admitting to being wrong at least a couple of times a day.

More importantly stops are AN INCREDIBLE SOURCE of "opportunity" for making money. Without them my money is tied up and i'm not moving on to another opportunity. STOPS ABSOLUTELY MAKE ME MONEY.

I can already see in the responses to your post that people are justifying their positions. It's the first reaction when they're caught on the wrong side of a move.

3. Resolve? What about being on the right side of a move rather than watch your equity swing wildly with each position you take and seeing where it takes you?

4. Until what point? What good would holding on to AED or ROC or a myriad of other stocks have done for me over the past two years? Why wouldn't you have preferred to have been stopped out and making money on trending stocks?


5. When supply is overcome or evaporates you will see prices rise with little effort - true

 

[alexc2005]

They're all XT (Cross-Trades) meaning that (say) CommSec has a buyer and a seller wanting the same stock (and covering amounts), they don't need to trade them on the market. CommSec opens at 8am so I assume, in practise they're able to start trading internally at this time.

thanks for the explanation, it was confusing me how trades can be done after and before hours!!

Judging by the buy/sell market depth you would think that there will be a price crash on opening...but im very new to this and only just learning how to read the market.. would make sense tho..

 

[condog]

might be guna see AUT fall through some stop losses this morning.

Some will panic and sell, others will sit and watch and some will snap up shares to hold while the lemmings jump from the windows. ???? what to do??

We saw this sort of pullback in both AUT and the general market in june july last year. When they all got over it a few weeks later, onwards and upwards we went.

One things for sure the first half hour will be interesting.corn:corn:corn:

 

[MACCA350]

They're all XT (Cross-Trades) meaning that (say) CommSec has a buyer and a seller wanting the same stock (and covering amounts), they don't need to trade them on the market. CommSec opens at 8am so I assume, in practise they're able to start trading internally at this time.

Sounds like a rort, over $1M in shares traded without affecting the share price

Cheers

 

[brendoz]

im with sdajii and condog here- all this does to me is spell out opportunity. fundamentals are great, so im scratching my head to see countless investors offloading socks well below $3.00 when just days ago there is an evaluation upgrade to $4.50



im closely following the depth with excitement over such volatility.

 

[nioka]

Wow, that's the worst advice I've seen for ages.

Worked OK for me, still works OK for me. Based on advice I recieved many many years ago from people that had it work for them. You cant beat something that is proven to work. There are a lot of geared up losses being made at the moment. Gearing works both ways, it mutplies the losses as it does the gains.

 

[bbker]

It's gonna be a long couple 'a months.

Opportunists and defeatists shuffling about queued positions looking at other stocks.

I'm enjoying the popcorn too

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

We're in Green territory again. Here we go... here we go... here we go...

 

[$20shoes]

Worked OK for me, still works OK for me. Based on advice I recieved many many years ago from people that had it work for them. You cant beat something that is proven to work. There are a lot of geared up losses being made at the moment. Gearing works both ways, it mutplies the losses as it does the gains.

nioka, i know you've been around the block a few times and have enjoyed success. And I enjoy your posts.
I'm just concerned with how your message may come across to those with less experience. My intention was to present a counter argument to get others thinking

 

[Sdajii]

We're in Green territory again. Here we go... here we go... here we go...

Amazing, isn't it? In an ocean of red AUT is sitting there like a solitary green lamp The fundamentals are too strong for AUT

 

[condog]

nioka, i know you've been around the block a few times and have enjoyed success. And I enjoy your posts.
I'm just concerned with how your message may come across to those with less experience. My intention was to present a counter argument to get others thinking

he one thing thats clear to me, is there are so many strategies to succeed, and we all tend to sway to the one that suits us best.

I think theres a lot of wise heads in this thread, and while i dont agree with it all, i think theres a lot of wisdom contained that should at least be pondered about as to why its said. Whils i dont agree that gearing is the answer or should be avoided, both cases have a strong argument for and against , and i think at least being aware of those reasons is the key. You will ultimately determine your own risk tolerance and what suits one person will not necesarily suit the others or work for them.

Good health discussion guys. Me personally i use an equity loan thats about 10% of my portfolio, it used to be 50% ,so its not subject to margin calls. There are times when i like to be geared eg: when your buying at the bottom of a GFC, and when things have been going up for a while and are due for pullbacks, i like to avoid gearing. But me personally, i would never ever have a margin loan.

What i detest about margin loans is that your getting hammered with a call and forced to sell, virtually exactly when you should be trying to buy. If i hold a stock and its fundamentals are good. If it drops 35% for no reason other then market sentiment, i want to be buying not selling.

Its a bit like your house, if someone comes up to you and says hey mate house prices have dropped 30%, are you going to rush out and sell your house??? not likely, so why would you do it with sound investments if youve already suffered the loss. Its got to be closer to a buy then a sell.

Sure sell at the top and buy at the bottom if you can time it , but once you ve incurred the loss and its bottoming, why sell, if its still a sound stock thats well under value. ???

A lot to ponder.

So far AUT this morning is a great example, i bet those who sold at 2.62 feel pretty regretful at present with the sp green at 2.78 ....... well i guess they can officially call themselves lemmings. We wont know whether they are the lemmings or us for a few days or weeks. But right now its odds on them.

 

[skyQuake]

They're all XT (Cross-Trades) meaning that (say) CommSec has a buyer and a seller wanting the same stock (and covering amounts), they don't need to trade them on the market. CommSec opens at 8am so I assume, in practise they're able to start trading internally at this time.

Actually they're overseas trades. AUT trades a little bit in Canada (after the cap raising there). Those trades are LTXT which = late crossing or OSXT = overseas crossings.
A normal commsec crossing would just be XT, and can only be done inside mkt hours;

SPXT and stuff are portfolio crossings between fundies and can be done before or after mkt hrs.

 

[alexc2005]

Dammit, missed the boat.

Was taking a guy on tour of the worksite. arghhhhh

 

[nioka]

. I'm just concerned with how your message may come across to those with less experience.

It is those with less experience that the message was aimed at. To invest with borrowed funds is definitely not recommended for those with "less experience".

Hands up those that were stopped out in the last day or two and now see AUT back in green ink, where is should have been all the time, and are now having to buy back in.

 

[basilio]

What i detest about margin loans is that your getting hammered with a call and forced to sell, virtually exactly when you should be trying to buy. If i hold a stock and its fundamentals are good. If it drops 35% for no reason other then market sentiment, i want to be buying not selling.

Its a bit like your house, if someone comes up to you and says hey mate house prices have dropped 30%, are you going to rush out and sell your house??? not likely, so why would you do it with sound investments if youve already suffered the loss. Its got to be closer to a buy then a sell.

Sure sell at the top and buy at the bottom if you can time it , but once you ve incurred the loss and its bottoming, why sell, if its still a sound stock thats well under value. ???

Coondog

It is those with less experience that the message was aimed at. To invest with borrowed funds is definitely not recommended for those with "less experience".

Hands up those that were stopped out in the last day or two and now see AUT back in green ink, where is should have been all the time, and are now having to buy back in.

Noika


Hear, hear.. Worth repeating and worth remembering.

 

[condog]

Amazing, isn't it? In an ocean of red AUT is sitting there like a solitary green lamp The fundamentals are too strong for AUT

Thats imo indicating its a red bot buy. Right now it has a 50%= gain to reach valuation, and we all know later this year the next reserves report will bu up up again, and then theres still the new well spacing to almost double it again.

Red hot buy imo .

 

[alexc2005]

Im confused...

It says it opened at 2.62 and that its now at 2.78, yet only a $0.06 price increase listed?

Anyone else seeing this?

Chance of it dropping back down today?