AUSSIE DOLLAR...here we go again? Intermarket Analysis

[MARKETWAVES]

AUSSIE DOLLAR... here we go again?

These charts represent 2 key factors that I am trying to illustrate...

The 3rd chart pay close attention to the triple bottom formation possibilty and at the same time look at the stochastics oscillators.

and the other important observation is

On the 2nd chart ...prices have rallied and hit resistance at 618% retracement level and is selling off from since last week.... this is one of the observations that I was trying to explain to tech/a about a month ago about fibonacci retracement levels.

Bottom line, from the perspective of this 2nd chart in this post.... prices haven't broken out yet.... the neckline in this head and shoulder pattern is very important... if prices start climbing towards the neckline of .7750.... Gold and silver will probably be spiking also..

Let's watch and see if this one starts to pan out......


TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Pay close attention..... This appears to be building.....

IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVELS .........

 

[Rockon2]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Bingo !!!

Nice one MARKETWAVES

Im in.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Looks like the AUD has hit that horizontal support at 75 again.....Just got a chart but it's gone lower. Crucial level now imo, let's see how it pans out. Still following this MW?

 

[Rockon2]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Gday Richkid.... Yup looks like im going to have to pull the plug on this one.

Be interesting to see if the support holds at these levels , but i doubt it..

 

[Rockon2]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Hmmmnmn .. Yes Indeed! here we go again....

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

RICH KID ,,,,

I am, posting this 5 chart update here ,,,,, pay closer attention to the 5th chart or the last chart in the group ... This is what I was seeing last week as it was falling of into the illustrated zone of aroud the . 7500 mark .. What a bounce huh ?

My eyes are on now the resistance lines , or the so called neckline of the inverted head and shoulder pattern that appears to be tracing out .... a sound base appears to have been formed now...

Take a look .....


TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

...THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL ///// I KNOW THAT YOU KNOW THIS

It is far more difficult to Exit a trade than to Enter a trade .... I am sure that you have heard that said before ,,,

THIS IS WHY ,

When making trade it just as important to have an idea where you want to exit as it is to place a stop to protect yourself from a move against you .
( THIS IS A PEARL OF WISDOM )


THATS WHY I TRADE ELLIOTT WAVES , because its giving you a probaility of where to look for a turn in a given market .....
The smaller the risk in relation to the price objective , the better chance of success in long haul .... (This is called Risk to Reward ) not money mangement .

Money mangement is a topic unto itself ,.....

The Risk is determined by the diffrence between,,,the entry price and the stop price... This is the Risk...

On the other hand ...

Money mangement is based on how much CAPITAL you have trade with,,,,,, which determins how many shares or contracts ..... should you
purchase to enter the trade ....

My hopes are you really understand this principle ////


ALWAYS REMEMBER ….

What makes a market place is all of our diffrences of opinions ...

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

My short term view is that its heading up. There is good bullish signal plus all indicators are showing divergence for it to go up.

The monthly charts are showing that its in consolidation mode so look at it going up again by a lot next month I think. Lots of short term trading opportunities in this one. Very predictable movements. The decline of the USD is significant for gold.

Also significant for the Aussie markets as it could mean a continuation of the bull market (after this months correction anyway). Look at the relationship of our dollar to the markets.


These are just my thoughts anyway.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Here is a better picture...
Looking forward...

We didnt break resistance yet... if this market breaks resistance and closes above 7800... it will look like a break out.... and will probably not add anything more this post... because basically
I am not a breakout trader.... breakouts are too late to be entering a market... its just not for me....

Feel like I am chasing a market when it breaks out..... and quite frankly I don't like chasing anything ...


TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

HERE'S A VIEW LONG TERM .... ( FUTURES CONTRACTS )

LOOKING LIKE ITS IN STRIKING DISTANCE OF THIS LONG TERM RESISTANCE LINE.... CAN THIS HOLD ?
ONLY TIME WILL TELL ....


ALWAYS REMEMBER ….

What makes a market place is all of our differences of opinions ...
------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
It is far more difficult to Exit a trade than to Enter a trade .... I am sure that you have heard that said before ...

THIS IS WHY...

When making trade it just as important to have an idea where you want to exit as it is to place a stop to protect yourself from a move against you .
( THIS IS A PEARL OF WISDOM )

THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL ///// I KNOW THAT YOU KNOW THIS ....

THATS WHY I TRADE ELLIOTT WAVES , because its giving you a probability of where to look for a turn in a given market .....
The smaller the risk in relation to the price objective, the better chance of success in long haul .... (This is called Risk to Reward )

NOT MONEY MANAGEMENT ………

The Risk is determined by the difference between,,,the entry price and the stop price... This is the Risk...

On the other hand ...

Money mangement is based on how much CAPITAL you have trade with.... which determines how many shares or contracts ....
you should purchase to enter the trade ....

My hopes are you really understand this principle //// ...

It’s just the way that it is ...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective. This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations. All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Looks like the Aussies going down again keeping within its range. Breakout unlikely at this point in my opinion.

Look for the Australian markets to go down. The XJO is trying to reach 4500 again but its really weak and could mean a big selloff.

Personally am in NAB to go down and waiting for NWS to finish its little bounce.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

And now the Aussie dollar looking like its starting its downward run.

Notice how today, the XJO also hit its resistance of 4500 (or there abouts) and started retracing.


Is FX this easy to trade ??

Its a lot more predictable than stocks in my opinion. After this month, I am seriously looking at trading FX.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Nice charts DTM, Waves. I'm keeping an eye on the USD index to see how the AUD reacts.

 

[Rockon2]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Gday all.

Au$, i would take the long profit now,, give it a day or so and then go short.
hit top resistance. imo..


we shallsee

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Is FX this easy to trade ??

Its a lot more predictable than stocks in my opinion. After this month, I am seriously looking at trading FX.

Oops! Where did that come from. Gotta watch out for that economic news.

 

[wayneL]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Oops! Where did that come from.

ROFL! It heard you say that!

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Rock on
Welcome to the boards I see that you are paying attention to the fibonacci lines that are being posted.... Always remember to have an idea where you want to get out when you enter a trade.... by the way stay close to DTM.... he seems to have mastered the ability to see short term moves through the use of western oscillators...

Personally I don't care for them because they are all lagging indicators and were created long after Eastern Technicals... meaning Asia.... Technical Analysis was round in the East long before the West .....
Sorry, don't have time to elaborate ......


HERE IS WHAT I SEE VERY WELL ..... I SEE CHART PATTERNS... I ESPECIALLY SEE PATTERNS WITHIN PATTERNS
NO OSCILATORS NEEDED... ( IN MOST CASES ) ......



The AUD/USD has remained inside of this massive channel 4 hr bar .....
It also appears to have made a Triple Bottom Formation..
TAKE A LOOK Maybe you agree ...?
Bottom line .... We appear to have a Failed Bearish HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN .... LURKING IN THE MIDST .....

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

...THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL ///// I KNOW THAT YOU KNOW THIS

It is far more difficult to Exit a trade than to Enter a trade .... I am sure that you have heard that said before...

THIS IS WHY.

When making trade it just as important to have an idea where you want to exit as it is to place a stop to protect yourself from a move against you.
( THIS IS A PEARL OF WISDOM )


THATS WHY I TRADE ELLIOTT WAVES, because its giving you a probaility of where to look for a turn in a given market .....
The smaller the risk in relation to the price objective, the better chance of success in long haul .... (This is called Risk to Reward ) not money mangement.

Money mangement is a topic unto itself .....

The Risk is determined by the difference between the entry price and the stop price... This is the Risk...

On the other hand ...

Money mangement is based on how much CAPITAL you have trade with.... which determines how many shares or contracts ..... you should
purchase to enter the trade ....

My hopes are you really understand this principle ////


TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Hi Market, nice charts again. Whats eastern technicals??? First time I've heard it and google doesn't help much.

You're right about being able to see patterns within patterns. I couldn't see it until you pointed it out.

Anyway, from my perspective there was a breakout and whether this can hold above support in the next few days is anyones guess. The price movements seems to have hit the bol bands and have retreated and is resting on main support and also the 200 day moving average. My guess is that it wasn't a strong breakout where a lot of pressure was built up so I will expect it to fizzle and drop below main support. I still think that the Aussie will climb against the greenback but maybe at the end of the month.

 

[Rockon2]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Hello Marketwaves and DTM
Thanks for the welcome.
I must admit Marketwaves, im no Fibonacci man, I just use some basic stuff like support /resis, macd . and say rsi or stochastic.

But ! each to there own and I enjoy reading your charts, mw. And you obviously put a lot of work into them.
Rightly or wrongly i prefer to keep my analaysis very simple and not all the time trying to get in at the bottoms or out at the tops, i prefer to try and find the safest entry and exit, over whatever timeframe to make my trading $ .
To me its all about making the safest % on your money for the amount of risk & timing in the mkt..
Although Im watching and trading this commodity, Im not convinced its the best for me, I feel there may be other instruments to trade that may suit my style better.

Anyway Cheers for now...

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Anyway, from my perspective there was a breakout and whether this can hold above support in the next few days is anyones guess. The price movements seems to have hit the bol bands and have retreated and is resting on main support and also the 200 day moving average. My guess is that it wasn't a strong breakout where a lot of pressure was built up so I will expect it to fizzle and drop below main support. I still think that the Aussie will climb against the greenback but maybe at the end of the month.

The Aussies starting to retest my support. It looks like it will break through and my next target level would be .7590. Also take a look at the XJO.