AUD

[Barndat]

Re: AUD is a short

Hello Kauri, If the CPI is higher than .9% it should go up though it respects double tops I have noticed. By the look of the current rally the good news maybe priced in so we could see a drop to around 8875 i.e. 50% retracement then push higher. The Daily looks very bullish to me...

 

[Kauri]

Re: AUD is a short

Latest info that has popped up on my screen... now off to the docs with wife for cataract..

Firm Underlying CPI Points To Rate Hike In November Sydney, October 24. Australia's inflation data came in mixed with headline CPI rising just 0.7%, below the median market forecast for a 0.9% rise and IFR's 1.0% forecast, helped by lower petrol prices. However, the RBA's underlying measures were on the high side, with the weighted median rising 1.0% and trimmed mean rising 0.9%, both ahead of the market median forecasts for a 0.8% gain; IFR had expected a 0.9% rise for both. With both measures at the top of the 2-3% target zone for CPI, and rising by more than 3.5% annualised (4.0% for weighted median), the data points to a rate hike when the RBA next meets in November. Inflationary pressures are firming--the 1.0% rise in the weighted median was the fastest increase in 16 years, while the trimmed mean has now spent six months at an annualised 3.6%, up from 3.2% a year ago. With the labour market continuing to tighten, food prices set to rise sharply in the current quarter, as foreshadowed by the strong gains in this sector shown at the producer price level, and domestic price pressures remaining generally strong, the RBA would lose credibility if it fails to act. The economy has clearly shrugged off the last rate hike in August, and more needs to be done to prevent it growing faster than potential and raising inflationary expectations in the longer term.

Cheers
.............Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Re: AUD is a short

May be heading initially, in the short term, towards a W2 around the 89 mark??
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Have added to my long skippy.. 5th wave?
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Apart from the rate speculation there are a few other factors supporting the Skippy...
Cheers
..........Kauri

Sydney, October 29:
The AUD/USD is back above 0.9200 and has made yet another 23-year high at
0.9216. traders say that the reports of Xstrata"s 3.1 BLN AUD bid for Australian
miner Jubilee is helping sentiment and there is a wide mix of buyers supporting
the AUD/USD. Australian exporters and investment banks were good buyers below
0.9200 and Japanese names have also been noted. There is talk in Tokyo that
retail demand for investment trusts might be fairly large this week and Japanese
retail margin traders are getting more active selling JPY and buying currencies
such as the AUD. The AUD/USD trades 0.9210/15.

 

[Kauri]

Have taken off the short term component overnight on expectations of a minor W4..(the minor W1 and W4 are not too convincing though).. will watch and see if another opportunity pops up for a final?? run into a minor W5..
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Has touched on where I expect a W4 to reach... will wait and see what the U.S does with it tonight before I commit to a trade either way..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

and have taken off the LT portion of the trade..(also on the Euro).. has reached what I consider to be the min W5.. and am not overly confident that the 25bp cut wasn't already to a large extent factored in already...
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Have closed out an overnight opportunistic short.. not sure of the direction from here pre-NFP... a 2orB during the day would set us up nicely for another short tonight?? maybe?? Now to grab some sleep before the Red Bull divebombers start roaring overhead again practising for the weekend on the Swan..

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Have taken another opportunistic short... will be keeping it very tight...

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Have taken another opportunistic short... will be keeping it very tight...

Cheers
..........Kauri

Made enough to slip down the road and buy a cleanskin red..
It would be nice if we turned around the 9225-9325 mark.. 50% ret of the last down leg and also a=c....
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Have gone short looking for the W3orC... following the Dow down??
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

More D&G?? Sure has some bounce in it tonight...
Cheers
...........Kauri

Nov. 2. The market has been caught long and wrong on the spike higher in carry trades and the carry trades continue to crumble, dragging AUD/USD lower. AUD/USD has triggered stops under 0.9180 and under 0.9150 and now trades at 0.9145 as AUD/JPY collapses. Next support for AUD/USD remains at 0.9120.
AUD/JPY which hit highs around 106.40 this morning has dropped to 104.75, taking out more stops on the move lower. Rumors of another large write down from an investment bank is helping fuel stock and carry trade losses.

 

[happytrader]

Although this post may be a little off topic, I though it might be of interest to some now that the AUD is at all time highs. Have just found out that goods of less than AUD$1000 are import duty and tax free.

Now I can order that drum set from the US

Cheers
Happytrader

 

[TradingAffinity]

Re: AUD(ATH)

The RBA monthly records show an ATH high of 1.4875 ATH for the AUD pair in 1973....another source gives 1.4950 ATH, also in 1973.

 

[reece55]

Have gone short looking for the W3orC... following the Dow down??
Cheers
.........Kauri

Hi Kauri
Same count here with me, it always amazes me how spooky/powerful charting is when you combine both EW and Fibo - I still have my learning skates on, but what I'm calling A is 38.2 of tough to peak of 5 wave move on the 4 hour chart and the snapback from A is about 50% of W4 to W5......... The symmetry is interesting.

Wonder if the almost certain .25% interest rate decision will have any impact on the pair, it's tomorrow isn't it.....

Cheers and good to have an active Forex buddy here on Aussie Stock Forums!
Reece

 

[Kauri]

Hi Reece
I'm still on my learner skates too, I find that sometimes the ice is pretty thin underfoot.. ..
I tend to think the raise from the RBA is well and truly priced in already, but who knows with the markets??? still trying to get my head around the markets gyrations after the U.S NFP on friday. ..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

There seems to be a bit of a horizontal S/R line at 9180ish.. will be looking for a possible short on a swing low if she breaks through that..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Taken a bite on the minor abc count..on break lower below the b... still expect 9180ish area to put up a bit of a fight..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[reece55]

Taken a bite on the minor abc count..on break lower below the b... still expect 9180ish area to put up a bit of a fight..
Cheers
..........Kauri

I'm in with you Kauri, lets see how we go.....

So far, USD is up across the board...... Had a joy of time shorting the EUR/JPY for about 50 pips in 30 mins!!!

Cheers