AUD

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: AUD is a short

Yeah ...I was filled & we got a bounce which didnt held long ....but tight stop made damage minimal...8180 area looking like next best bet atm....but this thing is shapping up bigger than I first imagined.
Thanks for reply

no probs

Inflation rose in US so no rate cuts coming that is a bullish driver for the US$

can u believe it i was short last night on gut feel then i closed at loss to teach myself a lesson for trading with out due cause! did it drop!

I personally think the market has turned on the aud and it will make some more falls. I am waiting a on a consolidation to get long or short, on the lines watching and waiting for now!

 

[Kauri]

Re: AUD is a short

On the Weekly I have it as nearly in the W4 zone, on the daily it has just broken through the WA=WC area, and on the shorter term it looks like it is in the 3rd wave of WC, also to keep the E/W pattern valid it needs to hold above the W1 at around 80c, so on balance I think she has a little ways to go yet before possibly bottoming and turning.
Cheers
...Kauri

 

[waz]

Re: AUD is a short

It just fell below 0.7950

which is weird coz i dont see much happening on the futures market

down 50c in about 5mins

any ideas? news?

 

[waz]

Re: AUD is a short

Am I the only one watching our dollar drop?

Its been gradually dropping since last thursday in an almost straight line.
Then this morning it drops from 0.8170 to 0.8000 in the space of an hour.
recovers a cent then again a 1 cent drop, then another 1.5 cent drop.
(these are just quick visual observations)

It has now dropped about 12% since its high a few weeks back.
which i think is too much to soon.

Is there such a thing as an unwinding of an unwinding carry trade??

The Au has now fallen to its lowest point since march. would i be right in saying that anyone who has been carry trading the Au since late march to now not made any money at all?

The Japanese would have been better off leaving their money in their own bank accounts.

 

[waz]

Re: AUD is a short

Further to this, the au/JPY has dropped about 17% since the end of July.

Now may be a good time to buy into listed Japanese property.

 

[wayneL]

Re: AUD is a short

Far canal!!!!

I normally watch Pound, Euro &Yen. Just looked at the Aussie!

OMG!

My parity argument just went pfffffffff!

 

[reece55]

Re: AUD is a short

Far canal!!!!

I normally watch Pound, Euro &Yen. Just looked at the Aussie!

OMG!

My parity argument just went pfffffffff!

OMG............ Hence why FX can be a tricky game to master......

Down to 79 cents, I think you are right in saying that the that parity equation is out the window........... We haven't been this low for about a half a year......

Commodities all down by 5%, high yield currencies being sold off - I wonder if it's the hedge funds (DUH!!!!)....

So funny, because on the way up, I know you Wayne and many others were talking about these very problems. Incredible how it comes to roost so quickly.

Cheers
Reece

 

[wayneL]

Re: AUD is a short

OMG............ Hence why FX can be a tricky game to master......

Down to 79 cents, I think you are right in saying that the that parity equation is out the window........... We haven't been this low for about a half a year......

Commodities all down by 5%, high yield currencies being sold off - I wonder if it's the hedge funds (DUH!!!!)....

So funny, because on the way up, I know you Wayne and many others were talking about these very problems. Incredible how it comes to roost so quickly.

Cheers
Reece

It's still unsettling to watch how fast things are unfolding, and it could get a lot worse very quickly.

I hope not, because it's very hard to manage ridiculous volatility.

Scary! and infuriating that "they" did not see this coming

 

[bvbfan]

Re: AUD is a short

Feb 89 AUD went from 88c to 75c over the space of the year after dropping from 88c to 80c in Feb

It will overshoot but the interest differentials will widen between AUD and USD, expect it will be back to 81c later this year if not higher.

 

[professor_frink]

Re: AUD is a short

On the Weekly I have it as nearly in the W4 zone, on the daily it has just broken through the WA=WC area, and on the shorter term it looks like it is in the 3rd wave of WC, also to keep the E/W pattern valid it needs to hold above the W1 at around 80c, so on balance I think she has a little ways to go yet before possibly bottoming and turning.
Cheers
...Kauri

Hi kauri,

I'm assuming that yesterday's action has invalidated your count on the aussie. Being pretty uneducated on EW, but with a bit of an interest in it, I'd be interested to hear how you manage it now. Is it back to the drawing board with a new count taking in the latest price action, or are you going to just leave it alone for awhile and look elsewhere for a trade?

Cheers

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: AUD is a short

I got to say yesterday afternoon to night was some of the best intrady trading i have ever had on the AUD.

the EURO/AUD was moving up so fast that the 10$ spread would be chewed up on entry was crazy. in and out in and out on a two 2min buying in of the minor dips.

caught a few chunks as the AUD/USD as it went to -360 was a hell of a night.

never experienced such a fast market, I had trouble getting out as the price kept changing!

Glad I got a chance to experience that, was a true rush!

 

[Kauri]

Re: AUD is a short

Hi kauri,

I'm assuming that yesterday's action has invalidated your count on the aussie. Being pretty uneducated on EW, but with a bit of an interest in it, I'd be interested to hear how you manage it now. Is it back to the drawing board with a new count taking in the latest price action, or are you going to just leave it alone for awhile and look elsewhere for a trade?

Cheers

Hi Prof
The count I was following has been invalidated by strict E/W interpretation... although on FX I usually allow a W4 to overlap a W1 so long as it doesn't go too far in or close deep in the W1... this may be touch and go.. .. Have actually just closed out my shorts on the skippy as I am half expecting a bit of a rally from here.... although on the 60Min chart the punters look as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs at the moment.
Cheers
......Kauri

 

[professor_frink]

Re: AUD is a short

Hi Prof
The count I was following has been invalidated by strict E/W interpretation... although on FX I usually allow a W4 to overlap a W1 so long as it doesn't go too far in or close deep in the W1... this may be touch and go.. .. Have actually just closed out my shorts on the skippy as I am half expecting a bit of a rally from here.... although on the 60Min chart the punters look as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs at the moment.
Cheers
......Kauri

Cheers Kauri, wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a rally here too- looks way overdone and unsustainable in the short term, but given the current volatility in markets around the globe, it could run pretty hard either way and I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[waz]

Re: AUD is a short

Reserve Bank active in foreign exchange market last night
Source: SYDNEY, Aug 17 AAP
Published: August 17 2007, 12:08AM

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Glenn Stevens says the central bank was active in the foreign exchange market last night amid volatile movements in the Australian dollar.

"During the overnight session we did a bit of dealing," Mr Stevens told a House of Representatives committee hearing in the Gold Coast.

"We don't typically signal about interventions for various reasons," he said.

"The general point is that on occasion, where market conditions are disorderly, we are prepared to intervene from time to time."

He said it was routine for central banks around the world to share information.

"It's quite a routine things to exchange info on what's happening," he said.

He said that while central banks would be sharing information with "more intensity at the moment than normal", there was not abnormal activity.

"There's isn't any kind of coordinated activity that I'm aware of that's going on at the moment between central banks," he said.

The Australian dollar opened lower today after sinking to a new five-month low overnight.

The domestic currency opened at at 79.08 US cents, below the 80 cent mark for the first time since March 20.

Overnight, it sank from a high of 80.45 US cents to a low of 78.20, the Australian dollar's worst level since March 14 when it fell to 78.03.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: AUD is a short

Short on a couple again on the AUD/USD,

after seeing it fail to hold its eary gains.

76-75 target........ any takers?

 

[professor_frink]

Re: AUD is a short

Short on a couple again on the AUD/USD,

after seeing it fail to hold its eary gains.

76-75 target........ any takers?

bold move. Given how quickly and how far it's fallen, a countertrend move from here could be pretty severe.

 

[professor_frink]

Re: AUD is a short

Short on a couple again on the AUD/USD,

after seeing it fail to hold its eary gains.

76-75 target........ any takers?

you got that one pretty well right TI- it got down into the 76 area. Nice work. You still holding through the madness, or have you cut and run?

 

[reece55]

Re: AUD is a short

Just went long on AUD-USD - quick fifty pips, easiest money I ever made......

All the best guys, volatility is so high at the moment, gotta take profits when it's there - I only took 1 lot!!!! Still not bad for 15 minutes worth of fun.

Cheers

 

[professor_frink]

Re: AUD is a short

Just went long on AUD-USD - quick fifty pips, easiest money I ever made......

All the best guys, volatility is so high at the moment, gotta take profits when it's there - I only took 1 lot!!!! Still not bad for 15 minutes worth of fun.

Cheers

I'm thinking there might be a bit more in this one- that sell off recently looked way overdone to me. I'm looking for it to test 80.

 

[reece55]

Re: AUD is a short

I'm thinking there might be a bit more in this one- that sell off recently looked way overdone to me. I'm looking for it to test 80.

I agree with you prof, but I just don't have the never tonight, want to go to sleep shortly, so that was enough for me.......

All the best if you go in long, I would think that the 80 cent level at least should be tested....

Cheers