AUD

[BentRod]

Well, it's old news now... but on thursday I reckoned it was about to bottom and took a little position to let run the course, which I was thinking should go to a new recent high.

Been trying to catch some of the swings with a bigger position.

Last week was my first week live trading after doing about a month on demo acc.

After hearing some 'economic' forecasts re the AUD while I was out I was keen to get home to have another look at the charts... but all's ok, it pretty much behaved as expected today.

But, I'm thinking I should move the stop up for this little lot, or alternatively dial in a take profit... but where too! What do you experts do?

What did you end up doing Whiskers?

Sounds like it was a swing trade?

Usually a trailing stop or a profit target for an exit works.

 

[Whiskers]

Ended up moving stop to a small profit and let it run... and stop out.

I was trading the swings, but just got home from getting a damn cancer cut out of my leg when I added to it, but I was pretty tired and the anthestetic was starting to wear off so I had a couple of panidols and went to bed.

Starting to feel better now... been scalping a couple of swings this arvo.

Looks like it's close to or has just made the top of wave 2 of 5 of C... looking to go short very soon.

 

[sinner]

Looks like it's close to or has just made the top of wave 2 of 5 of C... looking to go short very soon.

I took a similar trade based on the stochastic Whiskers, in at 0.66003, out at 0.654ish at +50pips when it hit the 100MA on the 30min chart and the stochastic bottomed. I get nervous shorting at the 0.65ish region because this is where the RBA likes to "hold the line"...

Nice trade for the night but I will chalk it up to managing losses after some other trades that went bad. Happy to hold the profit in USD as a risk free "short" if the AUD continues down it will look nicer in the morning

Thankyou and goodnight.

 

[Whiskers]

Good one sinner.

I was in at .6609, but got stopped out exactly on my stop... Damit!

But there looks like another fairly significant abc coming up now... if I can catch it I should be right for a decent run.

 

[Naked shorts]

I was in at .6609, but got stopped out exactly on my stop... Damit!

This same thing happened to me the other day. Price went hit, nipped my SL, then proceeded to tank

 

[Stormin_Norman]

you havent traded if you dont have a story like that.

 

[Lachlan6]

Looking at the AUDGBP, the move from Oct last year seems like one big correction and as a result the currency may look to impulse lower now. The sharp sell off from the 5th of Jan looks impulsive so I think it may be a case of watch out below. Also the wave 2 has come into the typical retracement area (50% - 61.8%) and today's sell off doesn't bode well. Slightly annoying being in London at the moment and using the Australian Peso!

 

[kransky]

when will the talk of the rba's next meeting and the rate cuts they will announce start? aud should start trending down for a while at least up till the cut day no? our rates cant stay where they are with what is going on in the global economy..

 

[Indie]

I lost some $$ trading the range in late December and really learnt my lesson the hard way. I'll just keep holding now until I see it break .60, and it surely will given the state of the markets and particularly commodities. S&P 750 should do it but that may take a while. Patience is the key. Have faith in the trend. Oil and gold need to come off a bit to get there I think.

The Yen is a monster atm, it's just demolishing everything. Also, I think Cable or Euro will get mauled to USD parity before the end of the year. That's a big call but these are historic times and we are seeing the beginnings of some momentous shifts in the world economy.

 

[sinner]

So what's the trade for tonight guys? Markets are trading in a pretty narrow range and aren't giving off any clear short term indicators, and this scares me a lot!

I'd rather do the dishes than try and play what I'm seeing today.

 

[Whiskers]

So what's the trade for tonight guys? Markets are trading in a pretty narrow range and aren't giving off any clear short term indicators, and this scares me a lot!

I'd rather do the dishes than try and play what I'm seeing today.

I got 26 pips on the AUD/USD for my first of the day, out at 6425... after quite some time trying to figure it out and adjust my 'L' plate EW Count... but I'm thinking it might be at 3 on my hourly chart... due for another reversal.

Anyone got a different count?

PS: Not sure about 1 & 2... maybe should be a peak earlier... but either way it looks like 3 is up... I think.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Happy for you to be enjoying the trading Whiskers.




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[Whiskers]

Happy for you to be enjoying the trading Whiskers.




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Thanks Wysiwyg.

Bludy hard work though to try to get it right.

I don't think I'd last too long at it for a regular day job though. It seems to suck up so much time trying to work it out or when I'm on the sniff with an itchy trigger finger for a good entry point.

 

[Whiskers]

Well, the reversal (AUDUSD) has ventured a bit further than I was thinking... so not sure about my EW count... maybe a diagonal triangle and short leg 5, or it's just making (2) now.

Into .67 territory and I'm thinking it's pretty close to going south again. Looking to re-enter for a decent run.

 

[sinner]

Into .67 territory and I'm thinking it's pretty close to going south again. Looking to re-enter for a decent run.

Whiskers, hope you were on this!!!

Not sure if I have gone crazy to long anything but gold in this climate but I diverted my remaining trading capital to go long some energy stocks I like so have just been watching from the sidelines since Australia Day.

My paper trade indicates a high probability of someone being very happy if they were short from 0.67 to now at 0.638! The NYSE hasn't even opened to drive it lower still.

 

[Whiskers]

Sure am Sinner. Didn't let it run loose this time. Kept my trailing stop a bit too close though and had to re-enter a few times.

Looking for a bit of a bottom and minoir wave 2 reversal shortly. Got my sell at 6345... then look for a buy entry again.

 

[noirua]

With a rate tumble due next week the AUD may be set to tank sharply. 59c seems reasonable in the present climate as the AUD becomes the worlds third weakest currency. Leaving out the Zimbabwe Dollar that has now been declared defunct by their Government and poor old Iceland. Yes, only beating the dreadful Kiwi$ and UK pound.

 

[Aussiejeff]

With a rate tumble due next week the AUD may be set to tank sharply. 59c seems reasonable in the present climate as the AUD becomes the worlds third weakest currency. Leaving out the Zimbabwe Dollar that has now been declared defunct by their Government and poor old Iceland. Yes, only beating the dreadful Kiwi$ and UK pound.

So, when a country's currency is deceased, what then?

 

[Stormin_Norman]

short on the aussie is a bit of a no-brainer atm. interest rate cuts and the strength of the usd because of bond buyers will see it into the 50s next week i think.

not that its a bad thing. a lower dollar will help us and the world in the current climate. reducing the costs of commodities for manufacturing countries is an important part of the world's recovery and will help our exporters retain their markets with the shrinking world demand.

 

[noirua]

So, when a country's currency is deceased, what then?

Then it's a free for all and people could pay in mixed foreign currencies. I did stay at a border hotel that took French and Belgian Franks, and German Marks. Even paying with a mixture of all three.