Hi Investo,
Just an indicator I developed which has proved itself over time. There are various formulas and indicators out there which highlight these retrace-able areas.
Had a quick look and he/she has some interesting posts, couldn't see their definition tho.
Looks like they may have answered your general question.
I find it interesting that general traders are baffled by the AUD rising, then attempt to rationalize it, or a financial reporter then writes an article justify the move.
Still more hidden gaps above (while more develop below)
from: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4805164#post4805164Before I do that, there are a few things I should make clear. WRB analysis was developed by Mark (WRBtrader). He offers a tutorial that consists of 12 chapters for a fee. However, the first three (3) chapters are free. Therefore, out of respect to him and those who have paid money, I can not talk about anything that is only accessible to paid members. Since chapters 1-3 are free to all, I feel it is okay to discuss some of that information and not be breaking any non discloser agreement. Also I have taken WRB analysis and tried to make it my own. So some of what I might say may not be technically 'right', that is, directly from Mark. But we all trade our belief systems and so I have incorporated my belief system into my understand of WRB analysis.
On a side note, this is why it a fallacy to think that a system or method of trading will lose its effectiveness with wide-spread dissemination. In truth, no two traders will trade a system or method exactly the same because no two traders have exactly the same belief system.
As I said before, WRB Analysis is a sub-set of Volatility Analysis. The base definition of a WRB is a candle body (Open-Close for candlestick users) that is greater than the previous three (3) candle bodies. Yet, that number can be user defined. Therefore 1 trader may use this definition while another trader may choose to use another number like 7. If a traders uses bar charts, then the base definition would be a bar with a range (High-Low) greater than the previous three (3). Unless otherwise stated, I will be talking in terms of WRBs with respect to candles.
WRB Analysis is primarily designed to improve a trader's understanding of the Price Action that occurs prior to any trade signal. A chart will have many WRBs but not all WRBs are equal. The WRBs that are of most importance will be Hidden Gap WRBs. A Hidden Gap involves the interval prior to the WRB and the interval immediately following the WRB. The underlying premise of a WRB Hidden Gap is that they represent where key market participants or Big Boys (BBs) have entered or exited positions and this action has created a change in the supply/demand dynamics in the market. Because some of the BBs have entered and exited in this area, and the BBs know that other BBs have likely entered or exited in this area, the area is watched by all the BBs. So all WRB Hidden Gaps represent changes in the supply/demand dynamic but not all WRB Hidden Gaps represent KEY changes in said dynamic. Those that represent a KEY change are determined by the Price Action after the appearance of the WRB Hidden Gap.
Drifters and Climbers are WRB Hidden Gaps with some specific price action components that I have imposed. Whilst they have nothing to do with VSA, I have imposed the concept of Effort into the definition. One way I define Effort is by looking at the relationship of the body to the range. If the open is in the lower 25% of the range and the close is in the upper 75% of the range, then there was Effort shown on the interval. So not only does the body need be greater than the previous three(3) but also the open needs to be in the lower portion of the range and the close in the upper portion. Effort can also be seen by the midpoint of the range of the candle. If the range of the candle is greater than the High of the previous candle (for a climber) then there is effort. In Bill William's first book this represents a two bar trend. Which, by the way, is also where the terms drifters and climbers come from.
Not surprisingly to those who have read some of my posts, most of my climbers will also be "buying" candles. That is, they will make a higher high and not a lower low than the previous candle. This too shows effort on the buy side and a lack of effort on the sell side.
Lastly, I think of range as showing effort as well. This is where I combine the idea of a Wide Range Body with a Wide Range Bar. So not only is a climber going to have a body (Open-Close) greater than the previous three (3) intervals, but also a range (High-Low) greater than the previous three (3) intervals as well.
Here's the best part. In chapter three of Mark's work, he talks about WRB Zones created by the user's own trade signals. Although climbers and drifters are not trade signals themselves, I think I can use them to create Zones as if they were actual trade signals because they could be.
Actually, the best part may be this: A WRB Hidden Gap only creates a WRB Zone based on the Price Action that follows (meets certain predefined criteria). That is another way of saying Result. So I am looking for Climbers and Drifters which are Effort and then looking for Result (the price action that follows). This ties in nicely with VSA and Wyckoff even without the use of volume
Hi Investo,
I am not sure where you got the idea anywhere that I said 'I developed the system, coding or indicator you are referring to',
Hi Investo,
Just an indicator I developed which has proved itself over time.
I think your agenda is beginning to be made quite clear now.
Thanks for the interesting analysis. So it is market manipulation at work...might be a good strategy to look for unusual down candles profit from the rebound provided there is no negative news that triggered the fall in the first place.
Hi thomasc,
I would be careful with this strategy if you are starting out, as more often than not you will be flattened by the downward momentum. This happened in a matter of minutes. When do you pick the bottom?
There had already been big falls for a number of days before this and according to my broker over 90% retail traders at the time were expecting the price to rise, while the price continued down on a daily basis.
It would have been easier to go with the downward momentum in the days proceeding the crash, with a trailing stop loss. The below screenshot is an AUD/JPY daily chart.
View attachment 91824
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