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AUD/USD

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haha....Now you talking Fapy

Aussie is close to breaching that channel on the Daily chart.

Fourth touch usually does it IMHO.
 
Potentially 0.5250 is not out of the question, give the current pattern that is forming...

 
Gold going up trust in the USD going down...this is the start of a new World.
 
That pattern may not be completely formed yet FAP....you could see a bounce off that it, not a break. Be prepared for both.

Cheers,

CanOz
 
Hi guys,

Looks like all the pairs are gearing up for their next big move. We are seeing charting signals everywhere (for example descending wedge on this pair although it could still go for a few days), and lots of traders are commenting to me they are looking for a signal to go long!

Are we in for a bear market retracement for currencies against the USD?

My own strategy is sounding alarm bells as the moving averages for this pair begin to bunch together on the daily and hourly. Even the bollinger bands are starting to look like they want to move with the wedge lines.
 
im a USD bear. i think their currency could be up for a large scale tank if the bond bubble bursts.
 
sinner said:
We are seeing charting signals everywhere (for example descending wedge on this pair although it could still go for a few days), and lots of traders are commenting to me they are looking for a signal to go long!
Click to expand...

Is that at Xaviers School for Gifted Traders. :
 
Yes, I'm with the USD bears too.

I'm still leaning towards the diagonal impulse count, but have not dismissed the corrective ABC yet though. I seems to me that both scenerios are going north for some time yet.

I'll only be considering the 50's if 7547 is breached to invalidate the diagonal impulse count.

Hope to get a clearer picture as we get nearer... but if it peaks below 7547 both scenerios are still in play and it's time for closer evaluation.

But in the meantime I'm thinking 73ish should be a pretty safe bet.

PS: I'm still curious to see the minor wave count of the B wave (my 4) in the corrective scenerio. The corrective count charts I've seen show the B at the low (my minor 3). Damned if I can figure that.
 

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  • AUD USD 22 Feb 09.PNG
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My minor counts are close to a minor 'i' on the above chart... took profit at 6539.

My next lower count has 6582 as max for 'i' and been pretty range bound the last half hour or so while I've been trying to decide whether it's already there or is gonna have another little push up.

PS: Was thinking of going short the retracement and going long again around 65 or slightly under... but literally caught in two minds in the middle atm... but with it just starting to chop a bit and dancing pretty close to the tune of the AUD/JPY lately and I'm getting sell signals off that as well... humm... !
 
Geesus... what a hectic night. By the time I considered any alternative counts the action dismissed them.

Ended up concluding a larger zig zag correction to test 64.
 

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Well... make that an ABC expanded Flat... but anyway, it breached 64.

Been out doing other things, just come in and looking to go long again... the Euro looks like probably bottomed for now, but the AUD seems to be dancing closer to the tune of JPY lately and I'm not sure it's bottomed yet.

Twiddle de, twiddle dum...
 
Here it goes... coming back for a third look at 6380.

The JPY still hasn't settled... might go a touch below 6380 yet, but not a lot of room to play with. If 6330 goes I'm back to the drawing board.
 
Getting to a level where the AUD is becoming an attractive risk/reward play here. The Aussie is pinned against the RBA and at what stage the monetary easing cycle is currently at. The daily is trading in a large wedge where supply/demand is jostling for power; a decent move could be somewhat imminent. The Interbank market has already priced in a 25 basis cut and gunning for 50. If the RBA cuts 50 basis points on Tuesday I think more downside is to come. Probably .6250 as first stop, then .6075 if things deteriorate further. Hard to see it breaking below that wedge though.
 
noirua said:
Will the Aussie tank be even greater though?
Click to expand...

What happens will largely depend on what happens to the DJIA.

As more and more money leaves equities more and more money will go to Government Bonds, pushing more money into USD.

Like Stormin said when the Treasury Bond Bursts, then we will see some real big moves I suspect.

Trend is down, no point trying to pick a bottom, follow the overall trend. Sell the rallies...
 
Hi people

I am a nebbie in Forex so new that I haven't even traded it yet.

Whats the best platform to trade with and does Forex behave well like shares or is it all over place?.

Cheers

IronMan
 
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