AUD/USD

[Whiskers]

68?

Sorry Norman... I should have explained.

It's all about the big EW debate, which wave count.

It took out yesterdays high but not quite the 19th Jan high... so have to have a bit of a think about the EW implications of that.

 

[Frank D]

AUD Weekly

Same pattern as yesterday but this time helped by price being pushed
down by the 3-day filter.

I still have the view of the AUD heading back toward February's 50% level before any up move.

However those who want to watch for any long positions on Tuesday,
price would need to bounce off the 5-day 50% level @ 6649 and then
break above the 3-day filter @ 6766

As it will probably push the AUD up towards the Weekly highs 69+

At this stage that's not a set-up to trade longs, it's just something to
keep an eye on if trading during the GMT-US timezone.

If price had already bounced off the monthly 50% level and this exact
same pattern was occuring then you would be looking to BUY the 5-day
50% level and add longs above the 3-day filter:- breakout.

Stick to shorting and manage positions:- partial exit +68

 

[Wysiwyg]

Dropped 2 cents in about 3/4 of an hour, tanking with the DOW.Opportunity stations folks.

 

[noirua]

Sinking below the waves again at 64.90 (1.541 reverse) against the USD.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

bernanke's speech this morning (dont know what he said) has lifted the USD greatly.

 

[GumbyLearner]

bernanke's speech this morning (dont know what he said) has lifted the USD greatly.

Bernanke live on c-span now

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/watch.aspx?MediaId=HP-R-15283

 

[Wysiwyg]

Bernanke live on c-span now

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/watch.aspx?MediaId=HP-R-15283

Always wanted to listen into these sessions but couldn`t find a live video feed.Thanks Gumby.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

thanks gumby.

 

[GumbyLearner]

thanks gumby.

No worries fellas. The best always comes straight from the horses mouth. IMO

 

[Frank D]

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD completes the move down into the February 50% level and
Tuesday’s lows @ .6530

If AUD is rising higher then around these levels the AUD should find
support, but I’m not expecting a rally up off this level.

In fact whilst below the 5-day 50% level there is an expectation of
another down day into Wednesday’s lows.

At this stage it’s too early to be going long on the AUD.

Therefore for those who think the AUD is going higher, then I would wait
1 more day and then make a decision after that: Perferrably the close of
the trading week on Friday will give a much clearer view.

Because at this stage I'm favouring my view from last week, lower prices
in February, and if it is below .6565 next week it will probably go lower.

Wednesday's 50% level and blue filter resistance with
the expectation that price is following the weekly trend down
into Wednesday's lows

 

[sinner]

Hi Frank D,

Not trading this pair at the moment but grateful for your continued analysis.

 

[Glen48]

This bail out must be the last shot for B.O. so if this fails ( which it will) the USD should rally for awhile and then be all down hill from then on????

 

[Phillip]

It's a little tedious to trade at this stage, as I am a simple classic chartist I generally look for oversold value. I am keeping an eye on 65c for a long entry, but perhaps I have missed the boat as the pair has held the .618 ratio and bounced off it, which is generally a bullish sign. Seeking to catch it at the blue eclipse.

 

[Kauri]

Still tonking on... trading each move on its merits... adapting the mindset from easy?? big moves to the smaller more management-needy type enviroment as the big "I'm smarter the market.. this is easy money" type moves fade away... redor white... who cares... so long as it is wet and cold..

Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Whiskers]

I am keeping an eye on 65c for a long entry...

Seeking to catch it at the blue eclipse.

Looking like a pretty good call there phillip.

On my 5 min Chart things look like coming to a head around 6515/20.

Good bollinger squeeze on the hourly and the DX has been trending up as well.

Something's going to break soon I think.

 

[Frank D]

Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD closes below the February 50% level @ .6565.

As pointed out in yesterday's report I would wait 1 more day if looking
for longs, even though everything looks bearish atm.

There is nothing to suggest the AUD is going higher, but there is a
pattern that will give the first sign that this week's down move has stalled.

If the trend is going to continue down then the blue filter @ 6525 is going to define whether price moves down into Thursday’s lows and continues with the trend.

Or moves back towards the 3-day filter (yellow @ 6635)

The 3-day filter is always viewed as resistance until broken.

However, if the Monthly 50% level is going to be a valid support zone
even though price is trading below it, then the 3-day
filter needs to breakout @ 6635.

If that’s going to happen it’s more than likely to happen during the US timezone.

The Trend is down and expectation is to continue down, but the 3-day
filter breakout is the first sign that a reversal pattern is taking place.

Above 6635 and the view is price is heading back towards the Weekly
50% level.

In the short-term Thursday's trend guide should be defined by 6525.

 

[AbundantIncome]

hmmmm ... AUD/USD 0.0060 spread ... how do be in profit if we get in during that spread ???

i seem to get caught a lot in my demo trading so far ... it is trending as per chart but i was still in a loss position .. make me wonder hard hmmmmm

so do people buy market prices or limits only ???

thanks

 

[Frank D]

Depends on the money management techniques.

If you are willing to run wider stops than normal, as many
position-swing traders do then they are more likely to trade at limit prices.

For those who wait for certain patterns and use intra-day filtering
techniques they normally trade @ market prices.

I prefer to trade at market prices.

Personally I think that Asian timezone traders have got it lucky
because there is an abundance of trading opportunities that start from
the next trading day around 11am here based on the mid-night GMT
timezone.

But we might not get all the trends because they kick into gear from
Euro and US timezones, but it can set-up you if you apply some chart reading skills.

Today was the first day that price opened above my filter @ 6525 so the bias was to look for a long trade again the trend.

Because i'm trading against the grain on this trade, I would tighten my exit strategies to a single 41 pip range and then run stops below today's lows.

And see if 6635 breaks or not, but i'll be waiting a long time for that to happen.

 

[Phillip]

hmmmm ... AUD/USD 0.0060 spread ... how do be in profit if we get in during that spread ???

i seem to get caught a lot in my demo trading so far ... it is trending as per chart but i was still in a loss position .. make me wonder hard hmmmmm

so do people buy market prices or limits only ???

thanks

I trade purely on limits with 30 pip stop loss.

 

[Kauri]

and Nadal thinks he has a problem with wedgies..

Cheers
...........Kauri