AUD/USD

[Uncle Festivus]

Good analysis.. our currency mainly hinges on commodities and therefore China.. but this in turn depends on the US, the DOW, and the US economic situation in general.

People such as Australian politicians seem to think China exists in a vacuum, but as soon as Walmart stop placing orders at their Chinese factories (as during the GFC), things start getting grim indeed.

Unfortunately, our whole economic policy and fed budget hinges only on China's continued expansion and growth.. like it will continue on forever exponentially.. if only it was that simple.

I would lump Japan into the mix of things as a major trading partner with significant problems also ie just announced that they are officially back in recession. Japans reliance on domestic credit for funding took a big hit due to natural disasters so the timeline for the day of reckoning for them has been shortened by a few years, so they will face an even bigger financial crisis than they have now?

Gross domestic product shrank 0.9pc quarter-on-quarter over January to March, after a 0.8pc fall in the previous three months. Two consecutive quarters of falling output represents an economy in recession.

With a national debt twice the size of its economy and an ageing population, Japan was struggling even before the quake took out infrastructure along its northeast coast and caused power outages.

Consumers have cut back more than expected in the wake of the disaster, throwing doubt on assertions from policymakers that the main challenge is disruption to supply chains.

As for China, so long as they have $US3Trillion freshly printed US dollars to get rid of they can go for a lot longer. That is, so long as the USD doesn't implode........then China will have diddly squat.......we will have even less?

Until then, trade the actual, even if overbought.........and decimating Aussie manufacturing.

What also hasn't been factored in is an interest rate CUT due to the deepening 'other half of the economy' recession - talk to any retailer how good the mining boom has been to them!

 

[Frank D]

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD continues to trade above higher timeframe support levels...

and if it's going to move towards 1.12 over the next couple of weeks, and
beyond...(1.17+)

then it will helped or hindered by the US dollar and whether it collapses or not.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6588&p=635931#post635931

 

[ginar]

with the opinion coming out that interest rates have topped for now im confident that weve seen the top in aud for this year and possibly for next also , now we have contango in forward future contracts of 30 day cash rates . will start posting analysis here in future . so just bumping this thread to get the ball rolling

 

[ginar]

chart of interest , well to me anyway .

 

[jbocker]

What will the downgrade of the US credit (Standard and Poors) have on the AUD?

I must admit I thought the passing of the debt deal by the US govt earlier in the week would mean well for their stocks - but it didnt!

 

[notting]

Would Tech or skc know anything about au direction v US from technical point of view? It,s gotta be weekening from fundamental point. Though Jim Rogers thinks not. Or any other guru? I called it at 1.07 but never got round to taking the trade. True legend

 

[Neutral]

Would Tech or skc know anything about au direction v US from technical point of view? It,s gotta be weekening from fundamental point. Though Jim Rogers thinks not. Or any other guru? I called it at 1.07 but never got round to taking the trade. True legend

I reckon the AUD will drop further come the next RBA rates decision as the banks have already taken the initiative to drop their rates before an official rate decision. Also, Euro zone not looking well with anaemic growth issues of the 2nd and 3rd largest economies & AUD/USD correlates strongly with the EUR/USD.

Technicals: http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/elliott_wave/?elliottWave=AUD/USD

 

[iced earth]

Aud/USD:22-08-2011

In daily chart we had a double top which reached the target around 0.993.now pair has the middle green dotted line as a resistance line, which was a support line before was broken down.



In weekly chart (logarithmic) , we have a Andrew Pitchfork , which the upper line acts as a resistance line and there is a red support line and if it breaks down we might see the pair get lower and the white dotted line and then middle line of pitch for are the next support lines.



Also in monthly (Linear) charts we are seeing the pair movement in a Andrew Pitchfork and the upper line is a very strong resistance level for the pair and there is a green support line which didn’t let pair fall less than 0.993 and if this support line breaks down the next support line would be middle of the pitchfork.



But if we study the monthly charts, we could see that the pair still has a bullish trend, (pair is above EMA 20 , Momentum above 0 and MACD above signal, and whenever price get in touch with EMA20 and Momentum to 0 and MACD to signal we would have support levels and if these be broken down we might have a long term downtrend.It means as long as we have stay in signal we might see longterm pattern of AUD/USD bullish.

 

[tothemax6]

I reckon the AUD will drop further come the next RBA rates decision as the banks have already taken the initiative to drop their rates before an official rate decision. Also, Euro zone not looking well with anaemic growth issues of the 2nd and 3rd largest economies & AUD/USD correlates strongly with the EUR/USD

I'd say the USD bit causes the correlation
If they RBA leaves rates steady at the next policy meeting, it would be madness. If they dropped it - it would be outright malicious. They have a set of rules they must play by - and the primary one is 'inflation between 2 and 3 percent'. To refuse to tighten policy as inflation accelerates would be against their rules.

Would Tech or skc know anything about au direction v US from technical point of view? It,s gotta be weekening from fundamental point. Though Jim Rogers thinks not. Or any other guru? I called it at 1.07 but never got round to taking the trade. True legend

From a fundamental view point AUD will remain strong whilst China and the mining boom powers on, and the USD will fall due to loose monetary policy, a floundering economy, and a large government debt that can't possibly be repaid.
From a technical point of view, I'm sure there is an inverted laughing squirrel in the chart somewhere.

 

[prawn_86]

From parity to 98c in the last 4 - 5 hours. It's gunna be fun at work tomorrow

 

[iced earth]

AUD/USD: 4-10-2011
================================
As I mentioned before the upper line of pitch fork acted as very strong resistance line and the pair couldn’t pass up over it around 1.10 and started to fall.
Also the support line (Red line) could not halt the fall and now the strong support line would be consider the middle line of the pitch fork. Also around this support we have the green line would be acted as support line too



In daily chart also we are seeing the pair is touching the middle line of the pitch fork. it seems the logarithm charts is more valid in this case



the ugly look of the pair (not ugly at all for our exporters)in monthly chart is that we are seeing the sell signal from momentum, EMA 20 and MACD/SIGNAL and as we could see the last time we had sell signal (white circle) in 2008 the pair went below 0.65 .

 

[iced earth]

TA of Aud/Usd - 24 Nov 2011
===================================

In 4hr charts, we could see that the pair is moving in a downward blue channel and after the pair passed down the red support line now is facing the lower line of the channel which could hold the pair from more fall but even so, the pair has the upper line of the channel as the resistance line.



In daily chart, after the pair touch the important level of 0.94 , moved up till around 1.07 which has previous pick and could not pass it up. Now the pair has the valid and important of level .94 (red line) and blue support line and if these could not hold the pair from further fall, we should see the pair at least around .9



Also in monthly chart, we could see Andrew pitchfork, around .94 , middle line of the pitchfork acted as support line and we should see if this line could work for aus/usd this time or not

 

[Nero64]

Can someone please tell me how the AUD/USD traded today.

I bought in at around 1.20pm today at .9747 on stop and then my broker price fell to .9703 over the next 1-2 hours. Then it rose again to be over .9750, but I got stopped out at .9710.

I cannot correlate my brokers (IG Markets) pricing or trading range to any forex chart I have seen today.

I smell bucket shop - market making tactics and it's starting to sicken me. I think I learnt a lesson not to trade at such a time as liquidity is not there during our lunch time.

 

[Timmy]

Can someone please tell me how the AUD/USD traded today.

I bought in at around 1.20pm today at .9747 on stop and then my broker price fell to .9703 over the next 1-2 hours. Then it rose again to be over .9750, but I got stopped out at .9710.

I cannot correlate my brokers (IG Markets) pricing or trading range to any forex chart I have seen today.

I smell bucket shop - market making tactics and it's starting to sicken me. I think I learnt a lesson not to trade at such a time as liquidity is not there during our lunch time.

Here is a 10 minute bar chart from http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdaniachart/
Shows a dip towards the 9710 level (underlined).

 

[Boggo]

I have similiar to Timmy with Alpari data on a 5 min chart.

(click to expand)

 

[choofer]

I have similiar to Timmy with Alpari data on a 5 min chart.

(click to expand)

man the life boats dude, blub blub blub

 

[iced earth]

TA of Aud/Usd - 28 Nov 2011
===================================
As it was mentioned, the pair started to increase when touched lower line of the channel (support line).
Now the pair is breaking up the downtrend channel, If it could manage to hold it up , the target would be around 1.025. But before reaching that, it will face the resistance blue line around 1.00.

 

[iced earth]

TA of Aud/Usd - 30 Nov 2011
===============================
As it was predicted, after the pair breaks up the channel stated to rise but the blue resistance line didn’t let it pass.
if it could pass this reissuance line, the target of the channel around 1.025 could be reached.

 

[iced earth]

TA of Aud/Usd - 02 Dec 2011
===============================
As it was predicted, after the pair breaks up the channel stated to rise but the blue resistance line didn’t let it pass.
after few hours the pair could pass this reissuance line successfully and reached the target of the channel . now the blue line is acting as support line for the pair.

 

[Bill M]

iced earth, I for one would like to thank you for your T/A on the AUD/USD situation. I refer back to this thread quite often. I don't have much of a clue for T/A so your posts, boggo's, Frank D's and others make reading this thread very informative. I spend a lot of time overseas, I've seen the AUD go to .49c in the past and at these levels I am thinking about buying the ETF "USD". I have to protect a bit of my travelling money for the future. I'm just not sure when to buy the ETF but it may be soon. Thanks again to all of you, cheers.