AUD/USD

Whiskers said:

Couldn't help but have a quick look tonight first... but I think I'll stay on the sidelines until I'm able to spend some time on it.

Best guess at a quick glance, I think it may go something like this on the hourly.

Click to expand...

In the wars matey!Wishing Whiskers a brisk recovery.Thanks for your point of view.

Can anyone explain why the Au has fallen 1.4c in the last hour?
Equity markets seem pretty stable, having slightly increased since our market close on wednesday.

Commodities are stable too.

The only news I have seen are profit downgrades and Kazakhstan Devaluing the Tenge 18%.

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD expectation is to continue down towards .5968 cents in February.

If it breaks Wednesday's lows it should hopefully gather pace the rest of this week....

Random support Wedneday's lows.

As long as price is trading below the 5-day 50% level, then my view is a continuation down.

back up for a whiles... then back down to the roaring fifties... or so my Budgies say..

Cheers
...........Kauri

Kauri said:

back up for a whiles... then back down to the roaring fifties... or so my Budgies say..

Cheers
...........Kauri

Click to expand...

The late 50c`s ?? I would like to see that.First post back for awhile I see.

AUD Monthly and Weekly charts :- Weekly report

Expectation that the AUD was going to down into February's low
hasn't played out, with the Weekly close above the Monthly 50% level.

If the double Monthly low pattern had played out into February's low then
I would begin to look for a move up towards the Quarterly 50% level:- 76cents

At this stage I'm going to treat AUD based on the Weekly highs next
week:- resistance

And for any higher move occur, I would use the Monthly 50% level as
support:- which may or may not hold

Therefore next week my view is for price to come back down into
the Monthly 50% level from resistance (weekly highs), and rotate back down
into support.

It obvious that a break above the February highs
has the potential to move towards the Quarterly
50% level @ 76cents. But I would only make that conclusion after
a double bottom , not based on this current price action.




Last Week Daily set-ups & the 3-day patterns.

Last week there were 3 high probability patterns based on the
higher timeframe trend and text-book patterns

Tuesday's up move with the break of the 3-day filter (yellow) and heading higher:- exit on higher daily close

Wednesday's reversal down from the 3-day filter.

This pattern is your holding set-up:- Monthly and Weekly trend down
and reversing from the 3-day high filter. Even though price didn't
continue down this week, that was a 'holding' set-up with the expectation
of lower prices.

Thursday's:- Day trading set-up.

A bounce off the 5-day 50% level, but only confirmed with a move
back above the 3-day filter @ 64.61 heading back towards Thursday's
highs


Friday's rally , wasn't a trading set-up, simply because of higher
timeframe dynamics.

There weren' t any Daily HOOK patterns over the higher timeframe
50% levels, unlike GBP.

In fact it was 'short' set-up because of the Monthly 50% level,
which mirrored Wednesday's reversal down.

But we would have known that the trade was failing simply because
price was moving from above the 3-day filter and above the Monthly 50% level.

Frank D said:

AUD Monthly and Weekly charts :- Weekly report

Expectation that the AUD was going to down into February's low
hasn't played out...

Click to expand...

No, indeed it didn't Frank... and I've been scratching my head and everything else trying to figure it out, since I got stopped out umpteen times trying to go short.

It obvious that a break above the February highs
has the potential to move towards the Quarterly
50% level @ 76cents. But I would only make that conclusion after
a double bottom , not based on this current price action.

Click to expand...

The conclusion I have come too (at least for now) is that the larger wave 4 on the daily ((4) on the hourly) has completed and wave 5 is under way with a minor retracement about due to take it back to about the 65's.

Two reasons; wave 5 has progressed more than 61.8% of 4 and it bounced nicely off the trend line under the low and my wave 2... and actually there's three reasons... that's a darn good Morning Star coming off that bottom.

I note some are calling my 1,2,3 an abc looking to go lower into the 40's.

My hourly chart includes the last 6 or so candles of the daily.

Anyone still betting on sub 60's?

Kauri said:

back up for a whiles... then back down to the roaring fifties... or so my Budgies say..

Cheers
...........Kauri

Click to expand...

BudgieMan

Where have you been?

I (and a few others) have missed your posts!

Hope all is well mate.

Bent.

Whiskers.....wave four overlapping wave one again.

Why don't you go join The Chartist if you want to learn EW?

I like to keep my trading very simple.

I think the AUD will come down to the 15 minute 200 ma in the 6550 region and I shall seek a bounce here. I certainly feel it is a short, but not a steep one and profits need to be taken on the uptrend line in my humble opion in view of going long at the 200ma.

An obvious 5 wave impulse down... now correcting... I would like to see a 38% min correction before the next major move... mayhaps
Cheers
.............Kauri

AUD Weekly and spiral filter

As per morning reports:- higher opens and expectation of a pullback.

AUD pushed upwards on Friday shifting the Weekly 50% level to .6755

Higher Weekly open and looking for a move back down into the February 50% level @ 6565 Random support.

At this stage I’m not convinced that the Monthly 50% level is a robust support
zone that’s going to send the AUD higher.

Therefore I would need to verify support by exiting shorts, and only then trade longs from a lower daily open rising upwards from support levels.

Partial exit + 85

BentRod said:

Whiskers.....wave four overlapping wave one again.

Why don't you go join The Chartist if you want to learn EW?

Click to expand...

Oops... yes actually the '1 ?' is a text label that just floats along at the same position on the page. I was initially watching for a diagonal triangle on the hourly and hadn't adjusted it. Mostly use the 5 and 1 minute to scalp and look at the hourly and daily for those longer runs that I was getting stopped out of.

Thanks for the chartist tip. He sure has some loyal supporters. Quite a few have tipped him... and I offered a challenge on the gold thread once to see if he could do better than me, in which case I would seriously consider subscribing... but I think I was holding my own OK and he faded away from posting there.

I should mention again here that I don't rely on EW. I am a fundamentalist that uses TA for short term moves and really only use EW to try to get a handle on the size of moves, to set targets.

Kauri said:

An obvious 5 wave impulse down... now correcting... I would like to see a 38% min correction before the next major move... mayhaps
Cheers
.............Kauri

Click to expand...

Yeaah... I thought so too for awhile kauri.

Btw, good to see you back. Need more 'colourful' gentlemen like you around here.

I'm also considering the possibility that it's a 5 x 5 abc to 6008. The main reason is more fundamental, that if the USD tanks the AUD should fare better off because the % of GDP that Aus is committing to so called stimulus packages is far less than the US and similarly with China our major trading partner.

So if metal prices have bottomed and continue to firm modestly and China's domestic consumption improves along with other nations as the world becomes less reliant on the US, I think it's a distinct possibility, almost probability that the AUD will continue to firm.

I pretty much agree with Frank and Phillip in that if 65ish support is busted it'll need re-evaluating.

Also noteing kaui's possibility that it needs to retrace further... that probably makes my wave 3 a larger degree A and you are left with the same problem I have atm with my wave 4 which would need to be B... ie in both scenerios they are corrective.

Just as a matter of interest, I've labeled numerically until it's obviously corrective or impulsive as more waves unfold. To that end Rod you may be able to chart up your wave count for your wave 1, my wave 4(daily).

I'm having trouble with that fitting a wave 1 atm... but I'm watching all possibilities cos if we are in a wave c of 2 or new larger degree wave 1, or 1 of a larger degree C, atm it's still a minor impulse wave. Maybe what it does in the next few days will make the bigger picture clearer.

Whiskers said:

BentRod said:

Whiskers.....wave four overlapping wave one again.

Click to expand...

Oops... yes actually the '1 ?' is a text label that just floats along at the same position on the page. I was initially watching for a diagonal triangle on the hourly and hadn't adjusted it.

Click to expand...

Just realised you may have been referring to the daily count.

Same as above... considering all possibilities, including (although I think unlikely) that it may turn out to be an a,b,c,d,e triangle... so just go numerically or with '?' until it shows it clear intentions

Well I am finding the AUD cross really intriguing and have covered my short and gone long. The question is considering resistance becomes support and vice versa is that old gann-like resistance line - now becoming support?

All very fascinating.

Kauri said:

An obvious 5 wave impulse down... now correcting... I would like to see a 38% min correction before the next major move... mayhaps
Cheers
.............Kauri

Click to expand...

Kauri great to see you back hope all's well

Getting near decision time.

Is it going to crack 78 or sink?

68?

the USD weakness would suggest its going to give it a good shake.

IFocus said:

Kauri great to see you back hope all's well

Click to expand...

Ditto that, good to have you back Kauri.

CanOz

well I took 6796... a bird in ther hand is worth two in the bush.

See whether I should get on again if it keeps going. Must be due for a bit of a pull back soon.

PS: Yeah Norman, I was monitoring the DX-h9, 1M... with a case of parkinsons disease (the shakes) for about 13 minutes... got me a bit jittery too wondering which way it was gonna swing

PPS: Just got a full hand of sell signals. Probably look to go south for a bit next.