AUD/USD

Frank D · 30 December 2010

Market Depth said:
Just dropped a nice short on the little aussie on the 1 minute chart from 1.01335 down to 1.01115 for 220 pips. for around $960 profit

I wouldn't call that 220 pips, more like 22 pips

work on 4 decimals not 5.

IB12 · 30 December 2010

Market Depth said:
Just dropped a nice short on the little aussie on the 1 minute chart from 1.01335 down to 1.01115 for 220 pips. for around $960 profit. I'm long now ATM up about $200 on the 1 minute chart. Plenty of action on the little aussie battler today

Also, how do you earn $960 profit on 22 pips?
that means you not using standard futures contracts. i.e. $43 per pip.
so you're quite highly leveraged I guess 50-100 to one times.
not unless you're just using a paper account since the difference between 220 vs. 22 pips couldn't be figured out.

Market Depth · 30 December 2010

Whoops! sorry guys my mistake It was late and I was tired. Just practicing a short strategy on the aussie for 2011, if the US econmy picks back up, still early days, all paper trades at this stage on the short. A longer term short is the plan. Just honing for when the time comes. Trying to calculate the best margin to use to manage risk/reward.

I've got a healthy account to start with, i've come over to this side of town from the stockmarket only 2 years ago, just expanding my horizons, still learning, need to learn more technical and economic indicators better in forex,which is a challenge, as I'm just an ordinary tape reader

IB12 · 30 December 2010

Market Depth said:
Whoops! sorry guys my mistake It was late and I was tired. Just practicing a short strategy on the aussie for 2011, if the US econmy picks back up, still early days, all paper trades at this stage on the short. A longer term short is the plan. Just honing for when the time comes. Trying to calculate the best margin to use to manage risk/reward.

Well since last night AUD/USD has jumped by about 50 pips. Long term short might be painful if you're too leveraged, especially as some of the institutions forecast the 'aussie battler' hitting 1.10.

Market Depth · 30 December 2010

Yes I've been reading the forecasts. I'm in no rush, I'll be patient, and just watch how things develop. The FX isn't my 'bread and Butter' so to speak. I just have it here watching how the pairs trade. Not sure how much leaverage to use? Any help with this would be great.

Frank D · 30 December 2010

AUD/USD Dilernia model

December highs reached precisely... and that completes the entire 4th Quarter pattern.

Note:- there is a breakout of the current Weekly highs, therefore it can continue
up towards next week's highs

my expectation continues to be, there will be higher highs in 2011 ;- minimum
move (January highs)

However, once these December highs have been reached the trailing Weekly
levels come into play from next week.

If there's any weakness in the short term, then the next long set-up
would be based using the Weekly lows.

If that happens, this can then provide the next support level for a
move towards higher highs in 2011 later in January.

Frank D · 8 January 2011

Frank D said:
AUD/USD Dilernia model

Once these December highs have been reached the Weekly
levels come into play from next week.

If there's any weakness in the short term, then the next long set-up
would be based using the Weekly lows

As per Previous post....

AUD has come down towards the Weekly lows, and my expectation is that the
trend will continue towards higher highs in 2011 :- $1.06

However, those Weekly lows are below a critical trend guide @ 1.0007 during the
first Quarter:- January 50% level.

Based on the current price action, AUD can follow a double Weekly low pattern
into next week's lows, whilst it is below 1.0007

Therefore in the short-term, there needs to be validating patterns to verify my view
of the trend moving higher..

At this stage AUD could continue to consolidate around these levels for a number
of weeks, and until the start of the following month.

Trade set-ups are based on the 5-day range and 12 hour patterns.

Frank D · 13 January 2011

AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD has continued down into the Weekly lows @ .9830, and using today's daily range
@ 9937/51 (support) is likely to continue back towards 1.0007.

1.0007 is a critical trend line during this month, but it's also matched with a
Thursday high pattern at the same level, which will often act as
resistance.

However, employment numbers come out at 11:30am, this will determine whether
AUD continues higher validated with a break (or not)

Frank D · 14 January 2011

AUD Weekly and Daily range (Dilernia Model)

Swing back towards 1.0007 failed to continue higher.

What I needed to see was the first 12 hour pattern breakout, as the 2nd
12 hour pattern had a change in cycle forming resistance.

no probability pattern for Friday

starman45 · 17 January 2011

This week the price is entered in compression, around support 9900.
The sellers were able to close below it; this may suggest a likely reversal of the immediate trend.
Chart daily.

Frank D · 18 January 2011

AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD range bound between last week's lows and the January 50% level @ 1.0007

My view continues to be that the AUD will continue to move towards higher highs
in 2011, but not whilst it's below 1.0007.

AUD remains choppy, and it might take the last week of the current month to
decide whether it's going up or down.

Currently forming a higher low with this week's price action above .9882.

no probability pattern for Tuesday

Frank D · 19 January 2011

AUD Weekly and Daily range

1.0007 continues to stall the market, but we have the same pattern as last Thursday.

As long as it remains above 9978 the trend bias is upwards during the first 12 hours

Wednesday will need to breakout of 1.0033 (Weekly 50% level & 5-day highs)
if it's going to continue to move upwards

Frank D · 19 January 2011

AUD/USD (Dilernia model)

AUD has stalled at the highs and Weekly 50% level during the first 12 hours.

Whether it continues to trend upwards in the next 12 hours is anyone's guess,
however the dynamics are different compared to last Thursday.

If it clears those highs, trend bias is to move towards the Weekly highs

Primary target on AUD is 1.06

Frank D · 20 January 2011

AUD/USD

Yesterday saw the first 12 hours breakout of the 5-day high and Weekly 50% level
@ 1.0033.

2nd support @ 1.0040 should have seen the AUD continue upwards, as part of a
move towards the Weekly highs.

Instead it failed, and has seen the AUD move back below the key levels in the
market @ 1.0007

Based on the current price action in the market there’s no probability pattern
for Thursday other than trading the levels:- short-term ranges

Footnote:- "
****** China GDP and other China news out at 1.00pm , big news , which will
effect the AUD in the short-term

Whiskers · 25 January 2011

A pennent/flag appearing on the 1 min around .9925/6 suggesting a further kick up... but I think it's a false hope... an Evening Star formed on top the flag pole.

Gotta break south soon!

Frank D · 25 January 2011

Frank D said:
AUD monthly and Weekly

My view continues to be that the AUD will continue to move towards higher highs
in 2011, but not whilst it's below 1.0007.

AUD remains choppy, and it might take the last week of the current month to
decide whether it's going up or down.

Coming into the last week of the month, and it is going to decide which way the
trend goes (break out of the monthly consolidation pattern)

Weekly 50% level and the January 50% level @ 1.0007 continues to resist the trend.

however, if is going to continue higher, then the set-up is based on the
daily 50% levels and the white channel lows from 11am onwards.

Frank D · 25 January 2011

AUD (Dilernia Model)

AUD remains supported in the daily range @ 9938, but there’s little room to
move on the upside, as the lines of resistance are stalling the trend (Weekly
and monthly 50% levels)

if AUD is going to finally push upwards, it needs to get some buying support in the
next 4 hours and begin trading above the 50% levels @ 7pm and begin the next
leg upwards

Trading above .9977(Weekly 50% level) and moving towards Tuesday's highs.

The concern would be from 11pm onwards and the shift in support levels.

Frank D · 28 January 2011

AUD/USD

Monthly and Weekly levels continue to resist the trend from rising, and yesterday
was the first day this week that provided a short trade set-up during the first
12 hours from 11am

Today:- trend guide at 11am @ .9897

Either the trend continues down into Friday's lows (random support) &
Weekly level @ 98.30

or the first 12 hour moves upwards, with the first target being the daily 50% level
@ 9928, and with a possible move towards the channel highs.

This being a lower Daily open and continuing to move in a consolidating pattern for
the first 12 hours.

I don't have a probability in which direction it's going to go, other than trading on
the side of .9897.

Frank D · 29 January 2011

AUD/USD (Dilernia model)

AUD continues to consolidate below the January 50 level @ 1.0007

Next Week:- price can push down into next week's lows, using the
Weekly 50% level as the trend guide.

However, my hunch is that the AUD can follow a text book pattern and
rise back into the January 50% level @ 1.0007

Stall once again, and then come back down into the February 50% level, which
then forms support....

and then continues up towards the Weekly highs, with a possible breakout of
those highs (or not)

Any expectation in the higher timeframes, is always optimised with set-ups using
12-hour patterns on a daily basis.

ShawnL · 30 January 2011

Let's have a bigger picture view of the AUD,

AUDUSD 4H

Price is still in an upper consolidation since starman45's previously posted chart, and there wasn't clear break of the major up trend line. We do have a Head and Shoulders pattern with 0.9828 as neckline. Also, a bearish Gartley pattern formed the right shoulder is still in play. If price breaks 0.9828, we have further Gartley continuation and possibly the trend might turn; am looking to short on breakdown-retest of 0.9828, stop around 0.9908, first target at 0.9650.

On the upside, am watching the 0.9974 level, slightly below the shoulders but has more S/R significance. If price breaks 0.9974 and had a clear retest, am looking to long with stop around 0.9894, provided there is enough room to move till 1.0179, the double top pattern.

Don't know when will happen, but at the moment, am sitting on the bench on Aussie dollar. May even continue to consolidate in the 0.9828 - 0.9974 range which I have no interest to be in the market.

Will update here if any break of either sides.

Cheers

AUD/USD

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