AUD/USD

[Kremmen]

Agree, if it does go above 98 then I am back to the drawing board, I am expecting the .9775 area to be significant resistance.

This, like many comments here, make it sound like the AUD is the side of the equation that is driving the result. But it's all about the USD suddenly gaining value. We're just along for the ride. AUD value has been holding roughly stable against some other major currencies and has rocketed to and then past CAD parity.

 

[prawn_86]

This, like many comments here, make it sound like the AUD is the side of the equation that is driving the result. But it's all about the USD suddenly gaining value. We're just along for the ride. AUD value has been holding roughly stable against some other major currencies and has rocketed to and then past CAD parity.

Yes current AUD/USD rally is all based on USD weakness as opposed to AUD strength. Can also see this in the way the EUR/USD has moved over the last few weeks

 

[Frank D]

This, like many comments here, make it sound
like the AUD is the side of the equation that is driving the result. But it's
all about the USD suddenly gaining value. We're just along for the ride. .

USD Index

Yes, it is all about the USD losing strength, that’s why is it imperative
to keep a track of the USD index. (chart below)

USD isn’t gaining strength, it has simply found support in October,
whilst other currencies have hit resistance in October.

Imo opinion, USD is setting up from further falls in the 4th quarter and going lower into 2011,

Which why I’m bullish on the AUD to go higher, as previously mentioned

And it gives some reason why currencies didn’t continue lower after the first
2-days this week, as the USD remains below higher timeframe breakout patterns in the
4th Quarter. (yellow)

But to help validate my long term views of the USD going lower and currencies
going higher, I would still like to see the next trends originate
from November, as per my previous posts suggested

Therefore whilst we are in October, I will continue to focus on the
short of the AUD & Euro and filter out those expectations on a daily basis.

 

[sinner]

I like the November theme frank. Not sure if I agree with everything that's been said recently, but whatever.

Here's a quote from Sean Lee at forexlive, today, sort of concurs with you:

The theme in this office seems to be that the big looming risk events will encourage more serious profit taking over the next 10 days before the USD selling resumes in force.

Mid-term elections on Nov 2nd, FOMC on Nov 3rd, US unemployment on 5th and the G20 on Nov 10th/11th are all big risk events. Volatility will remain very high, the USD will be sold on any big rallies as sentiment remains bearish but USD dips will also be used to book profits over the next few weeks. Then in mid-November the USD-selling will resume big time.

 

[Whiskers]

I like the November theme frank. Not sure if I agree with everything that's been said recently, but whatever.

Here's a quote from Sean Lee at forexlive, today, sort of concurs with you:

Apart from the "Mid-term elections on Nov 2nd, FOMC on Nov 3rd", our RBA meets on the 2nd Nov also.

Unless something substantial happens in the meantime, wouldn't the RBA be inclined to hold rates until they saw any change of direction in policy in the US after the mid term elections and the FOMC meeting the next day?

I'm inclined to think they will hold, considering it's the start of the Xmas shopping season which they would not want to kick too hard in the guts... and consequently see a few dissapointed investors flee the AUD.

 

[Boggo]

Gone long, just 5 units for a giggle on a quiet Friday arvo.

(click to expand)

 

[Boggo]

Moved the stop to breakeven when price hit 100% of risk, got stopped out for loss of 2 pips.

(click to expand)

 

[gt88]

Just want to say thanks for the daily updates guys. Im new to forex trading and quite frankly dont understand the charts, but continually find myself in this thread reading the daily updates.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

Last Week AUD hit resistance @ .9979 but remained within the weekly
levels from Wendesday onwards.

This week has seen a retest of the highs @ 9979, whilst the Weekly
levels have shifted.

Trend guide on Tuesday is .9889

I continue to look at AUD on the short side, whilst in October.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

would have preferred more selling on Tuesday, as it has failed to breakout
of the lows, and is still above the Weekly 50% level.


Random trend guide/support @ 9834-39

 

[Whiskers]

AUD/USD

would have preferred more selling on Tuesday, as it has failed to breakout
of the lows, and is still above the Weekly 50% level.


Random trend guide/support @ 9834-39

CPI figures came out 5 min after your post... and got a bit of selling going!

.7% should be low enough to put the brakes on another RBA rise next week.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

Last week of October and it is trying it's best to move towards the
November 50% levels.

Currently there's a breakout of the 5-day lows on Wednesday.

At this stage I would continue to treat AUD as potentially moving into a
lower low by Friday (random length).

As it is either going to find support around the Weekly lows (as shown above)

or drive down further as per previous charts towards 92.50 to
93.50, as part of a larger reversal pattern.

 

[Boggo]

The 4 hour trend initial target is 9624 on this plan, its playing the game so far.
I am not on this either, I have missed a couple of good trades over the last few days.

(click to expand)

 

[Whiskers]

Ooops... meant to put this in the XAO thread, but I suppose it's equally applicable here.


Just been reading an article that reflects my concern that the USD correction is over cooked and artifically driving commodity prices too high.

Something is going to break soon. T'ís a question of how much the surge in commodity prices (in particular) to near pre GFC highs is just exchange rate or inflated by speculation on the USD weakness.

This is one hell of a balancing act they're trying to pull off... and the longer it goes on the more I think it may rebound or recoil (in the case of commodities) with avengeance.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Recov...8.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD


Breakout of Wednesday and I would normally look for a continuation of
the move down into .9605...

However, the weekly levels came into play @ .9657

There is a possibility that Thursday continues down, as part of a break
and extend pattern from Wednesday's lows

However, whilst price is above 9715 the short-term move is back towards
the daily 50% levels.

 

[Governor]

You guys do a great job at the daily analysis. Just wanted to say Thanks

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

AUD consolidating between Weekly levels

Trend bias is based on price remaining below 9806-08 with a downward
bias, but more likely to remain between the channels 41 to 85 pips

Last day of the month and October resistance levels shift
upwards.

Preferred pattern still remains price testing the November 50% level
(moving down) and then heading upwards.

 

[Boggo]

This is what I see at the moment, target around the 96 area is still looking good, some shorter term long signals but they are opposing the longer term trend. My
Would like to have been on that 4 hour signal from the top.

(click to expand)

 

[Whiskers]

This is what I see at the moment, target around the 96 area is still looking good, some shorter term long signals but they are opposing the longer term trend. My
Would like to have been on that 4 hour signal from the top.

(click to expand)

I'm in the process of updating my EW count a litle on a number of charts and am inclined to agree the AUD may go a tad higher before coming back down, based on my XAU chart more than anything else... ie, I think my strongest signal is in the XAU chart that suggests it needs to go a bit higher to the 1,350's to finish a little corrective pattern before resuming down, no doubt just reflecting a last attempt for the USD to go lower and the AUD will simply reflect that.

 

[nielsend]

Scale in or Scale out of a position, or both? I've also posted this in Trading Strategies etc, but as I currently trade FX decided to post it here as well.

Curious to know how many of you, that actively day trade and swing trade full time, pyramid in to your positions as it moves into profit, as opposed to taking the larger position at the start of the trade and then scale out? The majority of books I’ve read on successful traders tend to take the approach of building on a good trade.
The problem for me is determining when to add to a position, that’s the hard part?