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AUD/USD

October resistance levels have shifted higher (resistance @ 9979)
disappears)

November highs @ 1.0161

Trend guide on Monday is .9853, which can see a push up towards .9926

I would still keep an eye on anything below the Weekly and daily 50%
levels today.

My gut feeling tells me it's not ready to break parity this week, but a shift
in market dynamics does give it a reason to do so, and also above
the Weekly 50% level.
 

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RBA tomorrow followed by Fed Thursday morning our time. AUDUSD will be at 1.02 or 0.95-96 in very short order one way or the other I think by the end of this wk. Which one? That's the hard part, but wouldn't look to be fading ranges anymore, that game of the last couple wks is over.
 
AUD/USD

Flat Trading day on Monday remaining in a reliable range of 85 pips
during each 12 hour period.

And waiting for Tuesday's rate ann.
 

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I think the duty of the 0.97 breach has been completed. We touched parity. I am waiting for a new low so I can start a short cycle. Too high up to buy into the current long cycle, but there was a inside bar on the 28th which is still technically valid for the uber bulls.

Less aggressive players would probably view this as an exhaustive or alternatively, profit-taking range. A New York close outside the range would be a good indicator as to what is coming down the pipe.


Interesting notes:
* IMF report calling AUD overvalued and looking to 5-15% drop in AUDUSD rate as "conditions in US improve".
* Huge 2.5% move in AUDNZD since the 27th of October.
* 10-year US Treasury yields appear to be in bottoming formation, could be supportive of a rate hike.
 
AUD/USD

October high resistance disappears @ 9979 and now heading up towards
November highs.

Helped by the Fed's decision yesterday to start printing money, which effectively says...

'devalue the dollar'

Aussie dollar has further to go, even if it hits resistance around
November's highs
 

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AUD/USD

AUD completes the move into November highs.

I would think over the next 12 hours that the market will stall and
consolidate whilst below 1.0174.

don't be surprised to see AUD continue up into Friday's highs, during US timezone

However, in the short-term (next Week) I'd be looking for patterns in the
daily range to retest this week's breakout @ 1.0006
 

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Frank D said:
AUD/USD

don't be surprised to see AUD continue up into Friday's highs, during US timezone

However, in the short-term (next Week) I'd be looking for patterns in the
daily range to retest this week's breakout @ 1.0006
Click to expand...

Yeh, I think so, wouldn't be surprised to see a few of these guys getting excited about QE2 taken out on a dollar grind higher now, before then undertaking another leg whereby AUD could hit 1.05. I'm staying relatively small long with bids scaling down to 1.0010 personally.
 
CAD -USD = 0.9969
AUD - USD = 1.0138
CAD-AUD = 0.9833

Now that is sweet. Take that Canadians! ...although Canadian exports now become comparatively more competitive...on second thoughts let's not have a currency war with our friends.
 
MRC & Co said:
Yeh, I think so, wouldn't be surprised to see a few of these guys getting excited about QE2 taken out on a dollar grind higher now, before then undertaking another leg whereby AUD could hit 1.05.
Click to expand...

There will be minor reversals from higher timeframe levels, as price hits resistance

But fundamentally things have changed once the Fed starts to print
money, which effectively devalues the dollar.

How much?

I don’t know, but I would think around 10-15% based on $600 billion USD.

Technically, the primary cycles won’t be confirmed until the end of 2010,
but already the price action in November and the 4th Quarter suggests
more gains into higher highs in 2011
 
AUD/USD

Friday saw a 85 pip reversal down into intra-day support levels and
then another 85 pip up move during the US time zone.

Breakout of the Weekly highs @ 1.0006 can see more gains towards
next week's highs, but at the same time I'll be looking for a minor
reversal pattern back to retest this week's breakout.

I still think there are more gains in AUD, which could see this month
continue towards 1.041
 

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I predominantly trade the AUD.USD intraday, looking to take a few pips out of the market on a daily basis as my main source of income. Last week I finally gave in and have upgraded to the latest TWS for Interactive Brokers. My reluctance to do so was due to the changes to the booktrader screen. Previously orders could be transmitted direct. Now an 'Order Confirmation' popup appears which adds time and the chance of missing an entry. IB has been the choice of broker due to tight spreads, low fees and free data feed into Amibroker.
Can anyone suggest an FX broker that allows orders to be executed directly to market without any form of confirmation, and provides data feed into AB? Or alternatively has a decent charting package and high liquidity.
 
Great to see the AUD/USD break the 100 level on higher volume last week, after the FED announcement.

Interestingly many indexes around the world gapped open that day with news.

I'm expecting the 100 level to hold, but I believe we will see the gap filled (FXA). Whether that's in the short term or a little down the track, I'm thinking the short term.
 

Ignore the previous. Never used the FXTrader with IB, and wasn't aware you could transmit instantaneously on this.
 
USD Index (left chart) & AUD/USD (right chart)

USD Index :-As per USD Index weekly report:-


There is an expectation that the USD index would
move back towards the November 50% level at the start of this week,
whilst currencies come under pressure

There is also a breakout of the October and 3rd quarter lows,
therefore there’s an expectation that the trend is moving lower, after
testing the November 50% level and also the 3-week highs.

This could happen later this week:- Thursday or Friday, but it might
also happen next week, as long as Friday closes below those levels.

AUD/USD:-

As Per previous post... expectation of a reversal.

We have a minor reversal pattern in the AUD using a higher weekly open
and November high resistance back towards retesting last week’s
breakout @ 1.0006.

We have two patterns in the AUD to keep an eye on….

#1 finds support around Wednesday’s daily low and swings upwards.

#2 November highs completes the 2nd month wave pattern during the
4th Quarter (October & then November) and the AUD moves into
a consolidation pattern within the Weekly ranges until the following
month

Minor levels in the daily range should give enough clues which way the AUD heading
 

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Nice little swing off an ABC correction in progress at the moment.

(click to expand)
 

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AUD/USD


As mentioned yesterday….

It was how Wednesday’s lows were going to play out to see if the AUD
was going to swing upwards & continue towards the Weekly highs later
this week.

There was a breakout on Tuesday (intraday) therefore there was
an expectation that Wednesday would make lower lows, with the lows
@ .9983 providing support.

Wednesday remaining within it’s 85 pip range

The most robust pattern for the trend moving higher was then
Thursday’s open above 1.0031 and a continuation back towards
Thursday highs.

There was an initial spike during the past hour of 41 pips…however it
looks like fake move, which could see more weakness in the short-term,
as price is being pushed down from the 5-day 50% level @ 1.0068

It doesn’t surprise me if there is more weakness, as the AUD is coming
down from the November highs, which can often result in a lower
weekly close.

Thursday's Trend guide 1.0031-38 (3pm)

This week’s support remains around .9961 (Friday’s close)
 

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AUD/USD

Yesterday’s price action was either going to swing up from Thursday’s
lower open and move back towards the November highs...

Or follow the higher Weekly open and reversal down from the November
highs towards a lower Weekly close on Friday.

First 12 hour pattern was to find support @ 1.0031 and continue
upwards. (#1)

Instead the US timezone (2nd 12 hour) (#2) sent the AUD down into
the Thursday's lows

And Friday has continued down (#3)

I wouldn't be buying longs below Friday's lows
 

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I agree, its probably more so the time to short the dollar now...I believe that the USD should not rocket much past parity for the time being.

The charts above are very good - nice analysis.
 
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