AUD/USD

[acouch]

just curious, so you enter as price moves away from your s/r, as long as it is with the MAs, and exit at the next s/r it hits? and trail stops?

I imagine some of the moves away from your s/r 's are pretty fast, do you use stop entries ?

thx

Hi broadway,

as i am a scalper, i usually take it of at the s/r as most of the time it will retrace...but if price cuts straight through a s/r i will hold it till the next one..
ac

 

[Kremmen]

The downward trend of the Aussie is well set now, IMHO.

For many months, the ASX and the AUD have pretty much followed the direction of the US stock market. It appears to me that your statement may simply reflect a bearish sentiment towards the stock market. Or do you think that the connection between stocks and the AUD might change?

 

[noirua]

For many months, the ASX and the AUD have pretty much followed the direction of the US stock market. It appears to me that your statement may simply reflect a bearish sentiment towards the stock market. Or do you think that the connection between stocks and the AUD might change?

I see the stock market as only part of the equation as money may well be drawn out of Australia with a shaky mining and oil sector - so I'm eying commodity prices.
The PIIGS situation (Portugal, Ireland, Iceland, Greece, Spain) is putting pressure on Europe and that will hit Australia to an unknown extent going forward.
The USD is recovering as even China recognizes the size and strength of America and the safety in their currency during a torrential storm.

 

[tradingtiger]

Commodities are slumping in price as the US Dollar gets stronger by the week. This is likely to cause an exit of cash from Australia and the trend looks set for the next target of AUD1.20 to the USD1.
The first target of AUD1.15 came quicker than I thought but European woes weighed down on commodities in the last week or so. This trend is likely to remain.

Noirua-Trying to get used to your terminology- was excited when I started to recently read your posts thinking we would get the AUD to 1.15 against the USD- but figured out that you are putting it the inverse way.

What you are saying is that we will have to pay 1.20 AUD to buy 1 USD (assuming your target is met). How awful, as i am going to the US this year.

Learning (fast).!!!!!

 

[Whiskers]

Well, didn't go north as quickly as thought last night, but still heading that way... with the help of some compound H&S's on the 5 min... maybe!

This revised count, since the trend has unfolded a bit more, gives '3' a slightly higher target of 88408ish.

 

[acouch]

a chart of someone else,
who showed me how they use the road map
thought some might be interested

ac


http://e2.md.it-finance.com/MDV6/showimage.phtml?id=12657128688670&print=1

 

[acouch]

today's road map
a little late..sorry about that
have a great day, and good trades
ac

 

[acouch]

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

 

[Whiskers]

Well it finally got going north again. My sometimes dubious EW count suggests that it was a 3, 3, 5, Flat correction hence my bottom call earlier.

Fundamentally, I still see reason for the AUD weakening and the US strengethening... but this turnaround seems to have some steam behind it now, breaking the short term downtrend.

Maybe as mentioned earlier wave iii extended and this is actually the wave iv completing with another go at parity for wave v followed by a more significant wave 2 correction.

 

[explod]

OK... So there you have the price action of the currencies yesterday... Overnight, the currencies have been range bound, and have not moved much... The Aussie dollar (A$) saw some selling when it had a Confidence report print weaker than expected, but again, these moves are all range bound...

China reported that imports had weakened last month, and that is causing some concern on the global growth front, for China was depending on the domestic demand to help offset the reduction of exports to the U.S. This news, along with the news from Aussie Confidence, has really cast a shadow on the A$ for now...

Just from Chuck Butler of Everbank in the US, mostly they trade currencies and his daily free blurb is worth a look IMHO

 

[James_w]

Aud will keep going down to around .59-.65

long term average the dollar was sitting to high for awhile imho

 

[acouch]

morning,

a day in the life of the road map

a:couch

 

[acouch]

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

 

[acouch]

was just looking at the chart, and thought how pretty it looked
the the low of .8878

then as watching ready to print for here it dropped down to .8862.. and now passed it..so you would have to look at lower nos
ac

 

[CanOz]

The markets are in chaos over China's decision to increase bank reserves, and data out of the EU.

S&P futs sold off 8 pts in minutes.

Crazy.

CanOz

 

[prawn_86]

Wow, glad i got my USD clients in today. I thought we may have risen too fast too quick. I'll be a popular man monday

 

[Whiskers]

Wow, glad i got my USD clients in today. I thought we may have risen too fast too quick. I'll be a popular man monday

What did you tell them, prawn?

Not certain, but on the HI it looks like it's probably completed an expanded flat for wave 4... the sharp fall being the impulse tail... and going north again for the .895 to .90 area, supported by my daily signals, before a larger degree correction.

 

[Whiskers]

Aud will keep going down to around .59-.65

long term average the dollar was sitting to high for awhile imho

How long are you planning to wait James?

 

[prawn_86]

What did you tell them, prawn?

That after gaining near 3 cents in a week we would probably be in for a retracement and its better to book any payments today than wait till monday

 

[acouch]

morning all

Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac