Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Interest rates left on hold weakened the AUD though signals are for a 0.25% increase next time, and I don't expect the AUD1.15 rate before March against the USD. Trading and growth in Europe and America are ongoing factors and thoughts that future winters may not be as bad across the pond.
BP's poorer than expected profits may also bear down on the AUD, even if interest rates point to 4.5% before years end.
At some point interest rates in America will push on up and that may well coincide with higher interest rates at the short-end both in Europe and the US.

Right, we're through AUD1.15 to the greenback at the double now, so much for March, and Ok for me after the FLX cash. Chance now to pay my CGT out of currency gains. I've long thought that AUD1.35 is fair exchange rate agin the USD, and I hope we can get there, good for many of us.

Stock markets are under pressure as profits are coming in, in the energy sector, below expectations. Masterly innaction, dare i say it again, the way to go now and written in stone, IMHO.
 
good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac;)
 

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USD Index and AUD/USD

As pointed out a number of weeks ago, expectation USD Index would
push upwards whilst the currencies will head the other way.

Support levels on AUD are matching February lows and Quarterly @ .8442

Whilst USD Index will begin to hit resistance levels.
 

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Morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac ;)
 

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Commodities are slumping in price as the US Dollar gets stronger by the week. This is likely to cause an exit of cash from Australia and the trend looks set for the next target of AUD1.20 to the USD1.
The first target of AUD1.15 came quicker than I thought but European woes weighed down on commodities in the last week or so. This trend is likely to remain.
 
An interesting week ahead as markets transfix themselves on the Euro Zone and the gathering storm of debt surrounding Greece, Spain and Portugal. The contagion is building and as in the property sector will spread and spread.

The US has an advantage here in that it has already crashed and not burned, but can we say the same of the Eurozone and we have not heard so much yet of the newer part of the Eastern Block of the Eurozone.

The USD looks as if it has a long way to go against the Euro and we need now to see how much that can continue to affect the AUD. The Aussie has been commodity driven and prices have tumbled, and some think stand on the brink. In this situation the AUD may have a longway to go in its downward path, perhaps through the whole of 2010 and 2011.
 
Hi guys,

Everyone is so bearish right now. None of you managed to predict the move properly last time - what makes you think you will get it right this time?

Weekly closes above 0.86 for this pair keep me bullish.
 
Hi guys,

Everyone is so bearish right now. None of you managed to predict the move properly last time - what makes you think you will get it right this time?

Weekly closes above 0.86 for this pair keep me bullish.

Who exactly are you referring to here sinner?
 
updated audusd chart

have a great evening
a:couch

But what does it all mean! :confused: :)

On my weekly chart, I originally thought it might fall a bit lower into the low 80's, but given what I think is a pretty much completed Flat correction, it may have bottomed and set to surge higher.

I'm working with a '1', '2' count atm, but equally it could be 'iii', 'iv' with my current 'iii' extending.
 

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But what does it all mean! :confused: :)

On my weekly chart, I originally thought it might fall a bit lower into the low 80's, but given what I think is a pretty much completed Flat correction, it may have bottomed and set to surge higher.

I'm working with a '1', '2' count atm, but equally it could be 'iii', 'iv' with my current 'iii' extending.

you use a weekly chart the one i post is a 24hr chart..which
is a 10min time frame,looks like you use elliot wave..as long as it works for you..great stuff..

my chart is very simple..above the red line you are long,
below you are short..
all nos are strong support/resistance nos..

no brainer really..just trade what you see

have a great evening,

ac ;)
 
Thanks ac, that sounds easy enough. ;)

PS: I also trade the shorter time frames, but it seemed opportune to stick up the larger picture.
 
Looking for a pretty straight run up to 8750ish if my theory is correct.
 

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Gwaud, wish I was trading it, but I'm only getting my detail eye in after a break.

The 5 min shows a bit more detail.
 

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The downward trend of the Aussie is well set now, IMHO. There will be some recovery phases as there always are when outside big trading influences come in to play or news arrives from America and more importantly Europe these days.
I have an interest in the AUD weakening against the USD but I wouldn't be in this position if I wasn't so certain of the trend.
Still, Xstrata sees a renewed commodity boom so the bulls of the AUD have a chance of coming right here.
 
good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac ;)
 

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all nos are strong support/resistance nos..
just curious, so you enter as price moves away from your s/r, as long as it is with the MAs, and exit at the next s/r it hits? and trail stops?

I imagine some of the moves away from your s/r 's are pretty fast, do you use stop entries ?

thx
 
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