ASX Momentum Trade Book - Part 2

[VSntchr]

Alot of nice BO plays kicking in this week:
TGR in play after the 385 break...
PRG looking good with a very tight range right on the BO level.
FLT looking good and despite going ex-div this week looks like it will finish at the upper end of the range, maybe a trigger next week.
TPM coasting nicely after the 960 break
SRV had a bit of burst the last few days..
The aged care providers (EHE, JHC) are having a bit of a breather but are still in play.

I'm not unhappy to see FPH pull back a tiny bit, I haven't wanted to enter too many trades in the current environment, more consolidating at the current level should provide a better risk adjusted entry if the BO occurs.

 

[peter2]

EOW 29 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +7.5% ( 81% invested in 6 trades ) XAO -11.9% ( past 29wk)

This weeks sells: BSL sold after huge down bar. This exit was several bars too late as the BO (our entry) didn't go on with it. By not acting decisively at the correct time (proactive) we are reacting to moves by the market.

This weeks buys: RCR, GNE and TGR (Bought BO-HR at 3.85, SL is 3.60)
The new trade in TGR replaces BSL, which was sold for a loss (-0.7R).
[VSntchr: Thanks, I was all over it. It's in several portfolios.]

Outlook: I'm now mildly bullish from cautiously bullish and having a hard time restricting my portfolio heat to bear market limts. A few market sectors are going up (XEC, XNJ, XSO and XGD) and I'm happily buying into those sectors (except gold).

Our portfolio is 81% invested and the remaing 9.7K will be used for leveraged trades when the portfolio heat is a little lower. It's too early to start using leverage. My trigger would be after the XAO closes above 5300.

 

[peter2]

After a huge down day (upcoming retest of low) it's good seeing two of our stocks in the top 5 ASX200 gainers table. May they continue higher.

 

[skc]

After a huge down day (upcoming retest of low) it's good seeing two of our stocks in the top 5 ASX200 gainers table. May they continue higher.

TPM reporting tomorrow FWIW.

 

[peter2]

Thanks, that's useful info re TPM.
Luckily, in this instance price is not close to our sell trigger, so we can "let it ride". However, price can be a bit volatile sometimes after the news and I'd like to place a limit sell at 10.87 (+2R, good until 11.00am) in case price opens higher or spikes up after the open. This is notification in case that does happen before I see the market.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: TPM price volatility after news allows me some intraday speculation. My intention was to take profit at +2R or sell at our BE level.

Price opened slightly higher (10.55) than yesterday's close (10.48) and went up but didn't hit our sell limit order. Price then went down below yesterday's close and I sold it at 10.47 to preserve our existing open profit (+1.4R).

The report looked all good to me and I considered buying them back at a lower price (10.23) locking in a small profit for the intraday intervention. I didn't rebuy them as I knew you were watching and this sort of trading is not part of the plan. I'm trying to set an good example so I've got to stick with the plan.

As an aside, I do trade these price movements after news occasionally and I'll admit my record is not great. Actually, my record sucks at this type of trading because I don't do it consistently. The reason that I would have been profitable with this TPM trade was due to the slow price movement. Generally price movements are too quick for me to react manually.

We've stuffed the +1.4R result into our swag and on to the next trade.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: New trade.

ACX: Clearly in a strong trend up. Bought BO-NH (4.40), SL arbitrary placed at 4.00

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Lots of opportunities, even in this depressing market. Missed BO's in NUF, HUB.

Placed buy orders (with limits) to buy BAL (<8.05) TPM (<10.55), ELD(<4.05) for myself.

This portfolio is back in TPM, SL at 10.00. This trade will be managed aggressively with a tight exit stop. Price continues to go higher or we exit. I'll know what to do at EOD. If today remains up, I'll raise the exit trigger and remove most of the risk. If today ends up down I may exit next open and keep the loss low. Let's wait and see.

We've now invested 95% and my bullish enthusiasm has the portfolio risking more than planned in this down market (Capital risk 6.4%, Bear mkt limit <5%). This means the trades will be managed a little more aggressively to ensure that the portfolio doesn't lose that 6%.

We may also use the remaining cash for margin in an ASX200 short if I see a low risk setup. I anticipate a retest of the low, but if it looks like going lower we'll offset the portfolio with a short.

 

[VSntchr]

Did anyone get the HFA 251 BO? Flying off again today :dance:
PRG/SKE have the merger vote today so could be worthwhile watching PRG closely for the BO!

 

[peter2]

VSntchr: Yes, thought of you yesterday as HFA broke higher. Thank you.
I see your HFA and I'll raise SGF for your attention.

 

[VSntchr]

VSntchr: Yes, thought of you yesterday as HFA broke higher. Thank you.
I see your HFA and I'll raise SGF for your attention.

hehe!
Would you call me silly if I told you I prematurely accumulated SGF in anticipation? I Promise I thought of you as I did it as you brought it to my attention in your earlier post! I treated 300 as the level rather than the more clearer 307 level its currently bumping on right now.

 

[McLovin]

hehe!
Would you call me silly if I told you I prematurely accumulated SGF in anticipation? I Promise I thought of you as I did it as you brought it to my attention in your earlier post! I treated 300 as the level rather than the more clearer 307 level its currently bumping on right now.

You were thinking of peter2 as you prematurely accumulated?

 

[peter2]

back at you. I've also been pre-empting a few break outs lately (eg FPH). It's the thin MD that has me buying in anticipation of the BO rather than waiting for the BO.

There are heaps of opportunities just now. DTL, TME are worth a look.
We rarely see price go sideways for three weeks (ignoring TO offers): SIQ, SRX have been rock solid.

 

[VSntchr]

You were thinking of peter2 as you prematurely accumulated?

I was hoping someone would pick up on my not-so-discreet attempt at humor!

I've also been pre-empting a few break outs lately (eg FPH). It's the thin MD that has me buying in anticipation of the BO rather than waiting for the BO.

There are heaps of opportunities just now. DTL, TME are worth a look.
We rarely see price go sideways for three weeks (ignoring TO offers): SIQ, SRX have been rock solid.

I think we are running the same book this week!

 

[peter2]

EOW 25/09/15 update: ASX Momentum portfolio +10.3% ( 95% invested in 7 stocks ) XAO -13.9% (last 30wk)

A good week for the portfolio (+2.8%) compared to the XAO (-2%). The portfolio has been rewarded for buying stocks that are going up and are performing stronger relative to the index.

This weeks sells: TPM
This weeks buys: ACX, TPM

We've done a good job collecting winning trades, considering the market is still classified in a weekly and daily down trend. I hope this performance devalues the idea that we should revert to cash and stop trading in a bear market. We've been very cautious and will remain cautious, yet we find the portfolio almost fully invested. We can use our remaining cash ($2751) to leverage into trades in a few large caps (cfds) or keep it for trading the ASX200 index. We'll grab the next opportunity whichever it is when it's recognised.

There was a moment this week that we had too many trades and that our capital at risk (6.4%) was above our bear market limit (<5%). However now that the prices in many of our trades have gone higher, we're able to raise our exit stops and reduce the downside exposure within our limit. We've been able to reduce it to 3%, so theoretically we can start two more trades. Only, we don't have the capital. To become fully invested in winning trades should be the goal of every portfolio manager.

Enough rambling from me. Let me show you the xls. Modifications to our TS's are highlighted in yellow.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: new trade IPL

IPL-cfd: Bought BO (3.89) of small consolidation using cfds (as we are running out of capital). Target price shown. (SL = 3.65)

 

[peter2]

Trading update: We knew today was going to be an interesting day, probably down.

TPM: Sold early as price traded our tight TS (<10.50) Average sell price 10.43 (Result -$100, -0.2R)

As the market is making new lows, we must protect our portfolio and reduce our total risk. We took the opportunity to invest more as the market went sideways. Things would have looked very rosy if the market bounced from here, but as it didn't, it's important to minimise the losses.

AAD: Place Sell limit 2.70 Lock in profit.
TGR: Place Sell limit 2.28 Lock in profit.
ACX: Place Sell limit 2.15. Take the small loss. We'll re-buy this on BO > 4.40

GNE: Let it ride, although I'm inclined to exit at BE if price trades back down there. (0.09NZD XD 30/9)
JHC: Leave TS at 2.65,
RCR: Leave TS at 1.95, showing some demand

IPL-cfd: Nothing to do here as there is not much room to work with. Will exit if 3.65 it traded (exit in market).

Note: If the DOW drops another 200pts over night ( more irrational panic) I may just sell the top three on the open.
Aside: I'm personally considering buying the US ETF (VTS or GGUS) if there is more panic selling now or early Oct. These ETFs won't be traded in this thread. I'll be prepared to buy in halves as I won't buy the bottom.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Trades closed: TPM, AAD, TGR, ACX

These trades were closed to grab some profit and to reduce risk as the XAO closed below 5000. The close <5000 indicates that there might be further falls and I think it wise to protect what we've earned and our capital.

Although I anticipated a retest of the Aug low it was by no means a certainty. We continued to trade in this bear market as there were plenty of setups and if the market rallied we were positioned to take full advantage. When the market went down, it showed that our postion was in danger, hence the immediate protection which has been consistently applied in this thread.

Being nimble is a state of mind. Intraday traders must be both nimble of mind and action. We can also be nimble trading EOD and weekly charts. Two days ago I was getting very bullish as the number of opportunites were growing each day. One huge down day and the XAO closing <5000, changed my mind immediately and I got protective. Now that I've taken some basic protective measures I'm keen to see what opportunities are available now.

TPM: Obviously the daily volatility means it's impossible to use tight exit stops. The price has recently broken out from a long period of consolidation. These break-outs are perfect for a medium term trader who is more patient than this threads portfolio manager.

GNE: We earned the div as it went XD today and dropped by the amount of the div. This puts price back at our entry and BE. We'll try to hold on and see if price recovers quickly.

TGR: Price didn't drop much on the large down day. This is bullish and is worth re-buying at 4.40.
ACX: We'll re-buy at 4.40 provided price makes a HL (and forms an ascending triangle).

Other opportunites from my BO watchlist:
ALU, APO, ASZ*, BAL, CGC, EHE, GNC*, HSN, HUB, NTC*, OML, PRO*, RCR, SGF, SIQ, SYD*, TME*, TRS, ZIP*
(* triggered today/recently) How many do we need?

 

[peter2]

Trading update: new trade ASZ

ASZ: Bought BO (1.005) SL = 0.92. I liked the fact that the small consolidation (box) was located above the prior BO level (0.93). The initial target is the old highs (1.10). Then we'll see what the demand is like.

 

[peter2]

Trade update: new trade APO

NTC: Considered, but rejected as price nearing 1.50 resistance.
OML: Considered, rejected due to thin bid depth

APO: Bought (3.81, SL 3.60). Price at recent BO level (retesting this level) and we'll know within 3 days if the demand was real or if supply is withdrawn again ("tech/a").