ASX Momentum Trade Book - Part 2

[peter2]

EOW 139 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +90.7% (100% invested in 6 trades)
Benchmark index: SPAX2F15 (Incl. divs and f credits) +14.1% (past 139 wks)

This weeks sells: EHL (+1.3R), BUB (+1.4R), MND (+1.3R), PGH (+1.1R)
This weeks buys: BPT, TPM, ASL

The market paused this week as we thought it might after such a strong rally. Our portfolio continued to increase in value as we grabbed profits along the way. Another equity high due to the bullish market conditions.

Our desire to grab profits quickly sometimes seems a waste of effort as a few prices gallop ahead after we sell. We've implemented a re-entry tactic to try to minimise this wastage. Sometimes we get lucky and jump into another winning trade immediately. This is more likely to happen in a bullish market rally like we've just experienced. It's the main reason for our current profitable batch of trades.

We've cashed nine consecutive winning trades. A new thread record and this has propelled our equity curve into space (parabolic trajectory).

Outlook: WU DU. This market pause will create great trend continuation patterns for us to use. We've temporarily run out of cash. We'll close a trade next week so that we can buy another break-out.

 

[peter2]

I've alluded to a potential road block earlier in the week. It's another example of how life can get in the way of projected time lines. I've been notified that this road block has been postponed for another week.

The "roadblock" I refer to is Jury Duty. I've a chance of being selected for a case expected to take 3 - 5 weeks. This will mean that I'll be unable to look at the market during the day. It looks like I'll have to finish this thread as a real EOD trader. I'll have to scan and place all orders in the evening prior to the next open.

That's been postponed for a week and I've another five trading days of freedom. Enough time to buy that "Guilty as charged" tee shirt.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Trade closed

MMS: Sold just after open at 15.95. Result +1.5R.
Sold to release cash for additional trades. The decision was easy when MMS traded at T1.5 and it was the 2nd largest position. This will provide margin for several new cfd trades. If MMS hadn't traded as high then I would have chosen one of the small losers or CAJ which hasn't moved for ages.

 

[SuperGlue]

The "roadblock" I refer to is Jury Duty. I've a chance of being selected for a case expected to take 3 - 5 weeks.

Are you on the same Jury Duty with Obama?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41792432

 

[peter2]

I can't confirm, deny or even talk about it.

Interesting coincidence. "O" & "P" are juxtaposed.
Sheriffs all round the world must be getting desperate for jurors.

Jurors in the county get paid $17.25 (USD) for each day served.

I'll honestly be able to state that I'm be paid more than the ex-US President for performing the same duty.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: A bit of activity.

BPT: Sold at 0.975 today as price fell after failing to go higher. Yesterday's doji at 1.00 was a warning. The result is only +0.6R and on this occasion I should have considered a smaller sized iSL. I'm still pleased with the small win. I'll keep an eye on this for any demand into the close.

MND: Re-entry BO-NH. Price triggered our buy stop order today (16.60 - 16.65) after a touch yesterday. Bought at 16.65, iSL placed at 16.20. The position size has been restricted to 25K (~25%) to conform to our TP. The trade risk is 0.75%.

TPM: Price has spiked up and we've quickly moved our TS to BE.

 

[peter2]

I'm definitely playing a strong defense now. There's two main reasons for this. I have to acknowledge that the main one is emotional as we get closer to the end goal. The other is that the market seems a little overextended atm and I always get more defensive after a good run knowing what tends to happen next.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Re-entry

MMS-cfd: Re-bought this afternoon at 15.77, iSL at 15.30.
Position size limited to 25K. I consider there's plenty of upside in this one.

Lithium and cobalt explorers are bubbling up all over the ASX. They're highly volatile and seem to go up and down quickly. They're for the quick and twit traders.

 

[kid hustlr]

Liking your reply Pete - I'm trying to 'keep my distance' from my portfolio so to speak however I have concerns a pull back may be on the cards short term - it has been every other time for the last 10 years .

 

[peter2]

You might find this interesting. Pavillion103 started his thread Feb15 and this shows our results relative to the XAO index.

Our first year was a volatile down market. We've managed to earn a reasonable amount.
Our second year was a volatile up market. We've managed to make a reasonable amount.
This third year (so far) has been a low volatile sideways market. We doing all right so far.

 

[kid hustlr]

I am staggered by that chart

 

[Shaker]

I Agree. Now that is a trading method for sure

 

[peter2]

Information that you can get by keeping good records.

You're all familiar with my blue/red bar colours. They change when price closes above/below 1.5xATR(21) "supertrend" indicator. I use them as a visual guide to the short term trend. It doesn't always get it right but I apply a little commonsense to make my decisions.

In this chart I've labelled all the blue/red bar trends. There's 11 of them.

The table shows the number of trades and the R multiple result for each trend segment.

 

[peter2]

These results were collated using the closing dates of the trades.

I hope you can see that we make almost all of the profit when the trend is up (blue bars). There is always an exception. Section 10 is red (down) and a profitable one but is this sideways section really a down trend?

 

[peter2]

Trading update: The portfolio is popping. Everything except CAJ is making new highs.

BPT-2: Re-bought today at 1.00, iSL is 0.95.
I'm pleased we discussed this re-entry tactic recently. I was a bit defensive when I sold BPT and I monitored it for signs of demand late in the day. The close was off the low which meant buyers. If price traded back at 1.00 that would be the time to re-buy with the iSL back at 0.95. I've found it easier and quicker to just re-buy the same sized parcel. As the new stop size is smaller than the original setup the downside exposure is less than before. Theoretically if the stop size is smaller then we should buy more shares if we want to risk the usual amount. I consider the re-entry as re-establishing the earlier trade that was prematurely exited.

Argh. I didn't realise that BPT released it's quarterly report today. I didn't check for scheduled news (again). That's what pumped the price up. I don't really mind as it's positive price action that gets us into the trade.

I'm getting very jumpy as I write this because today's price action has put the portfolio within 0.7R of the end goal. It's that close. I'd love to get there before the justice system conscripts me.

BPT is trading back at 1.06 and I'm taking it. Sold at 1.06. Result +1R for this intraday trade but its only +$762.

That's how jumpy I'm feeling. If you read that experienced traders don't feel any emotions. Don't believe it. Now I'd better go for a walk to settle down or I'll sabotage the rest of the portfolio.

ps: It's almost time for the pm scans. The walk will have to be later.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Portfolio value at EOD today .... +100.2%



ps: Exit brokerage is included.

 

[hallph]

Well done Peter - as a late follower I wish I had found your threads sooner.

 

[debtfree]

Congratulations Peter, absolutely outstanding!!

 

[Shaker]

Trading update: Portfolio value at EOD today .... +100.2%

View attachment 73249

ps: Exit brokerage is included.

Congrats matey hope it doubles again in real life for you

 

[peter2]

Thanks for the compliments. I must admit to being a little stunned that it all happened so quickly.

@CanOz once remarked that this style of trading would fly in a bull market. He was right. The market has risen for 5 consecutive weeks and this TP has nailed it. Note the latest batch of results. Nothing outstanding but a near perfect W%.

The last batch has 25 trades and the performance is outstanding.

We know what that means. Every good batch is followed by an below average batch. Knowing this keeps us humble.