ASX Momentum Trade Book - Part 2

[peter2]

Trading update: What goes up one week can go down the next.

DTL: Trade closed today at an average price of 1.57 (-1.2R). This includes slippage due to the low market depth.

GXY: Trade closed today at 0.45 (+1.3R) after getting close to our T2 target last week and falling today.

The profit from GXY offsets the DTL loss. The portfolio loses a little open profit on a down day, but that's normal. Closing these two trades reduces our portfolio heat on a bearish day in case of further falls. We can always re-buy if prices go up.

CIM: Opened below our exit trigger this morning and went higher as I was getting ready to sell it. Still open but we'll close it if price trades back at 30.50 or below tomorrow. Remains open.

BSE: Remains open.

 

[peter2]

Trading update:

CIM: Trade closed as it traded down to our exit trigger for the second time. We accept the small loss (-0.3R) as price hasn't continued higher. The chart remains bullish but requires a much larger leash than this thread uses.

GXY: We sold this two days ago when the market appeared bearish. Today the market seems bullish and we re-bought as price moved up. Bought 0.465, iSL 0.42, but we will sell if price falls below 0.43.
Lithium stocks seem to be quite strong and I'm trying to take advantage of this with the trade in GXY.
PLS and SYA also look good.



Comment: We try to be proactive by following our TP but every now and then the market causes us to react like we have with our actions in GXY. Recognise this and acknowledge that we're doing so in order to protect our portfolio. Re-read your TP and get back in control.

Traders who get stuck reacting to the market gyrations soon lose hope, emotional control and a lot of money. All of them don't have a written plan to turn to.

 

[peter2]

EOW 93 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +42.1% ( 29% invested in 2 trades)
Benchmark index: SPAX2F15 (Incl. divs and f credits) +3.0% (past 93wk)

The market gained 2.1% this week and our portfolio lost a little as we closed trades. The gains in the market are due to the demand for the few large caps that dominate our indices. The mid cap sector that we mainly trade in has been a minefield. So far we've managed to avoid being blown up by any of the IEDs that have been released. Our turn will come. The mid cap index (XMD) has turned up, but the small cap and emerging company indices (XSO, XEC) haven't.

[IED = Improvised Earnings Declaration]

This weeks sells: DTL (-1.2R), GXY (+1.3R), CIM (-0.3R)
This weeks buys: GXY re-bought

We tried to get into a large cap (CIM) but were shaken out by the volatility. That happens.

Outlook: Our market filter remains bullish. Our cap risk is very low (only 0.4%) and indicates that our fund manager has been a bit slack or is taking too many long lunches.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: New trade

AMP: Bought at 4.82, iSL 4.62.
This is a reversal setup as the trend is down. There's been a HL and price has now broken higher. The gap fill provides an acceptable RR.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: New trade

BKY: Bought today at 0.780. iSL 0.74.
Another reversal as price is moving off support at 0.70. Target is 0.90 which provides an acceptable RR.
This trade is a little risky as price can move quickly when the MD gets thin.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: New trade.

MYR: bought 1.295, iSL at 1.24.
Price looks like closing at 1.30 which is the level I was looking at.
All today's trades will be managed with a tight exit trigger.



I was thinking that there weren't many good setups around, but looking today, there are plenty.

EPD: Going through 0.50 again, 2nd chance BO
ABX: BO-NH
OZL: BO-NH, although I think copper is extended, but that's a bias.
MDL: Price sneaking higher.

 

[VSntchr]

EPD: Going through 0.50 again, 2nd chance BO
ABX: BO-NH
OZL: BO-NH, although I think copper is extended, but that's a bias.
MDL: Price sneaking higher.

Some nice trades there Peter.
Heres one I don't mind:
EPW

 

[peter2]

EOW 94 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +43.9% ( 99% invested in 5 trades)
Benchmark index: SPAX2F15 (Incl. divs and f credits) +2.5% (past 94wk)

Our portfolio gained a little this week as the index went sideways. We've no cash available for trading (99% invested) so we have to wait while prices go up and exit quickly if they reverse.

This weeks sells: nil
This weeks buys: AMP, BKY, MYR

BSE: We've been in this trade for 63 days and we've been patient while price moves sideways. Price is not moving up and we may sell this at 0.210 to realise some cash for further cfd trades.

Outlook: Our market filter remains bullish.

 

[VSntchr]

Looking at your equity curve there I think I'd be taking a full position in your system Pete! Impending BO-NH!

 

[peter2]

Trading update: A few trades closed to free up cash.

BSE: Sold at 0.20 for a +0.8R win
GXY: Sold at 0.505 for a +0.8R win
We can re-buy GXY if it trades back at 0.52 or breaks higher again.

I record these exits as discretionary exits (DE) so I can evaluate their effectiveness later. The reason for selling was to grab the profit and free up some cash to start cfd trades in some larger cap stocks that are in demand. The resource sector seems a little subdued so we grabbed the profits.

Note: I'm happy to hold my trades in these for longer, but this portfolio's strategy is short term, momentum based.

IVC: A reversal setup that I wanted to buy, but missed, as the cash wasn't available. IVC must have seen me coming as it bolted higher today. I don't chase. I show this as it's a nice example of what we're looking for in a reversal setup.

 

[peter2]

Another two examples of what I classify as reversal setups. I like to see the initial bounce off the low and then a retest of that low. I prefer it if the retest makes a higher low. Whykcoff traders might prefer to see a spring as their setup, but again I'd like to see a HL after the spring.

PMV has triggered but REA hasn't. There's quite a few of these in the market atm.

Don't go "gung ho" on these as they are reversals and many occasions the market needs more time or the down trend resumes. I start with a partial position and add as price forms subsequent buy setups.

So regular BO's aren't working for you right now? Don't "throw in the towel".
You can use your experience trading BO's in these reversals. These work great when the market index is also reversing. That's not happening now, but there is renewed demand for the large caps and most of them have been going sideways for a while now and we can buy them as they rise off support.

 

[peter2]

A quick jog through my large cap list shows that there are plenty of opportunities right now.

AIA AMC ASX BLD CAR JBH SEK TCL TLS VCX WES WFD

Some charts are better than others, but it all up to you. You can stay frustrated with all the "ASX shockers" (great thread idea btw skc.) or you can get in the right trading mindset to earn some profits in another sector.

We may not get +2R profits on many of these but 3 x +1R in a month is OK with me.

 

[Boggo]

A quick jog through my large cap list shows that there are plenty of opportunities right now.

Seeing the same here on the weekly, big end of town seems to be getting attention.

Bear in mind that this is weekly, just a heads up as signals are not accurate until bar completion at close of market on Friday.

(click to expand)

 

[VSntchr]

Some charts are better than others, but it all up to you. You can stay frustrated with all the "ASX shockers" (great thread idea btw skc.) or you can get in the right trading mindset to earn some profits in another sector.

We can only be as good as the stocks we trade!

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Another stocking stuffer.

AMP: Sold at 5.14. This result is an above average profit at +1.5R ($1042).
Price filled the gap which was the primary target for this trade.
Note: Personally I've sold half here and will add after the next pullback and buy signal.

REA-cfd: Bought at 54.00, iSL placed at 51.00.
Nice ascending triangle with an initial target of 59. See chart posted yesterday. Any result >+1R will be acceptable.

BKY: Sell limit placed at 2.3R.
MYR: Sell limit placed at 1.6R, almost there.

ps: In case you're wondering about the difference in performance between this short term trading style vs medium term. This portfolio is beating my own medium term portfolio over the last four months due to the price volatility of many mid-cap stocks.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: New trade

BLD: Bought at 5.43, iSL at 5.10. Initial target near 6.00.
Another reversal using the BO-NH after the first HL setup.

 

[peter2]

JBH-cfd: Bought today's BO-NH at 28.01. iSL placed at 26.50 although I'd sell on a close below 27.00. The extra 0.50 is to account for price volatility. The initial target is near 30.00.
Another reversal although the up trend on the weekly chart looks intact in spite of the recent pull-back.
The retailers seem to be in demand (HVN, MYR, WES, PMV).

 

[peter2]

Here's a couple of charts that I really like, but they're companies I've never traded. I thought I'd log them here and see if I might learn something.

 

[peter2]

Perhaps I should comment on why there seems to be more action lately.
It's OK to ask if you're wondering about anything. This thread is primarily educational.

Our core strategy is to profit from short term moves. That means we have to look for charts that have started to move or look likely to move soon. Trading break-outs fits that description nicely.

In the last two weeks our portfolio has been in resource stocks (BSE, GXY twice, BKY, NSL, IBG). This sector has stopped moving higher as the bullish sentiment has moved to another (banks). Our trades were showing small profits but with the sentiment changing we could have been stuck in these trades or even lost our open profit if prices drifted lower.

We made a discretionary decision to grab the profits (however small) and re-position the portfolio into stocks that have started to move higher. We didn't profit from the bank sector as we were invested in other trades and the bank rally started from a very low position. We're anticipating that the bullish sentiment for the banks will spill over to the next level of large caps as the money looks for better than bank returns.

I don't know what is going to happen next, but I thought you might like to read my reasons for all the recent activity.

 

[jjbinks]

is the reason for using CFD's to increase returns?