Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

ASX Momentum Trade Book - Part 2

Hi Pete and all.

Like many I'm in the silent viewers. Great job Peter and very real
for those who trade in a discretionary manner.

Lone Wolf has mentioned some astute observations which are very real in my own experience
Such as the period of profit.
Id like to just add a little.

Its often touted that we can code discretionary trading methods and this can be true to an extent
but I believe that clever people with flexible code language can program most.
Even the discretionary recognition of ("Your Mothers Face") as T/H once put it--can be coded.

Its my own personal belief that while not all maybe coded enough to answer some very important
questions can be tested. E.g. ---How often is your mother portrayed by an imposter.
What is a good way to filter a flat or down period--buy less--don't buy at all--include other methods.

Without some of these answers or indications we are at best relying on our past experience
at worst a wing and a prayer.

One issue with fanning out into Leveraged instruments like Futures.
The leverage in the example we are linking it to will skew loss AND return.
A losing streak could kill profit gained over our 2 good months but could greatly
improve it in the others---which if it did poses the question---why not trade just that.

I again personally think that Discretionary traders are at a disadvantage without at least SOME answers.
The big drawback for most of us is.
(1) What do we really need to know--what's important--what's enough--what's pertinent.
(2) What are the tools I need---is what's currently available enough---Amibroker---Etc
(3) What skills do I need for most of us we aren't Howard Bandy.

Perhaps changing long and short CFD's would be a help.
Cheers
 
Thank you for your thoughts tech/a. I appreciate your perspective as it's slightly different to mine but we agree on the main aspects on how to trade profitably.

Gamblers call themselves discretionary traders because it sounds better. Most people who call themselves discretionary traders don't have a trading plan. I'd call them gamblers. I use a structured rule based TP that probably could be coded properly. However I use some discretion in the selection of which buy order from the batch of buy orders is executed. Some of that discretion is based on my opinions of the current relative strength of the sector the company belongs and general market conditions. Even this can be coded, I know.

Prospective traders must know one of two things. They must know if their trading system has an edge. This can only be proven with thorough, proper back-testing. Or they must know how they are going to create their edge going forward. I belong to the second group and past experience shows me that it's not based on a wing and a prayer.

IF I start a leveraged trade book, the results will be kept separate from the ASX trade results. The only connection will be the combined realised equity which will determine the position sizing for each account.

ps: I'll PM you about the very significant five words you used in that post.
 
Wyatt: re RCG: In the context of this thread's TP, no, the move down has gone too far and the weekly trend is down. I would classify this setup as a reversal opportunity since price seems to have found support at 1.30 again.

A very interesting chart. I notice that the weekly chart did not close < 1.30 indicating some demand at the lower prices. For a reversal setup I want to see a HL and there is one on the daily chart. I could buy a partial parcel at 1.40 with a iSL at 1.20. The low in June looks like a Wyckoff spring as price immediately bounced of the new lows. A move back to the old high at 1.80 makes the RR acceptable. The weekly doji followed by a close above the high of the doji is one of my bullish patterns. The weekly chart supports the daily chart for a reversal setup.
 
Trading update: New trade started

NVT: Alerted by yesterday's up day (traded at 5.45). Bought BO-NH at 5.51. Our iSL at 5.20 should provide sufficient room for us to stay in the trade if there is some resistance at 5.50.

APX: Limit order is in the market to buy todays BO-NH.
I passed on the best entry at 1.80 due to my mistaken view that this was a property trust. Lazy due diligence.
My only concern now is that price has had a good run up and I'm always wary about buying in too late. However, price can always go higher and knowing that we can sell quickly we bought today. We'll be looking for a quick win on this one (~+1R or slightly higher).

Miscellaneous observations on recent break-outs.
AZJ: Nice BO, but I'm reluctant to buy this slug.
MOC: Thought this was a slug also (BO >1.80). I got slimed by this one (hit 2.10 in 4d).
REA: I passed on the chance to buy the BO on this one. I thought the high price tag would floor a few of you.
S32: Nice BO-HR (>1.70), but I can't be tempted by this sector.
IFM: Chart is tempting and the gap fill would provide an acceptable RR. Recent price gaps down (x3) puts it in my never to be traded list. One for the "value" seekers.
 
Trading update: New trade

APX: We're in at 2.51. Our iSL is 2.30, mine is 2.20 below weekly low.
Price will continue higher or we're out. The chart shows the missed earlier setups to explain my comments.

ADA: In case of price spike a limit sell order is in the market at +2R.

APX2206.PNG
 
EOW 69 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +18.7% ( 62% invested in 4 stocks ) SPAX2F15 -7.9% (past 69wk)

Benchmark changed to an index that includes accumulated dividends and franking credits (SPAX2F15). The reason for the change is academic and it's easy to get the current value of this index than the XAOAI.

Our portfolio lost a little value today as the Brexit result induced some panic selling. It remains to be seen whether our open trades survive the volatility over the next few days. If they do then we'll know the demand for the stocks is substantial. We'll be ready to defend our portfolio next week if prices fall further.

This weeks sells: EPD Sold on today's open after closing below exit trigger yesterday.
This weeks buys: NVT, APX

Outlook: This dip in the market will create many more pull-back opportunities for us. However we don't buy when prices are going down. We'll wait for the market to find support and start to rise.

asf240616.PNG
 
EOW 70 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +23.3% ( 62% invested in 4 stocks ) SPAX2F15 index -5.3% (past 70wk)

Good to see that our open trades survived the Brexit volatility. NVT was almost closed, but they all survived due to the logical selection of their iSL. Ha, I can say that, but I know it's due to luck. So instead of four losses we're up 3% in open profits.

No sells/buys this week as we waited out the Brexit reaction.
We've raised the TS on IMF and ADA. Too early to raise TS's on NVT, APX.

Outlook: Cautiously bullish. The recent Brexit low will mark the weekly trend trigger for a down trend.

Observation: I've found it difficult to find high quality setups over the past month. There have been plenty that have looked good, but the uncertainty in the market (and pre-Brexit) have made me very wary about the possible RR. This caution has been justified as many of the recent break-outs have failed to go higher and are now below their BO levels (WHC notable exception).

I only mention this in case a few of you have been finding it difficult also. You're not alone. The day traders have been reaping some rewards but the volatility has not been good for the short and medium term traders. One big down day cancels several up days.

Lone Wolf: There is another reason that the portfolio value has remained steady for a while. You and others must have realised it but were too polite to mention it. This portfolio has not traded in any gold, lithium or graphite stocks. What have been the best performing sectors for the past few months? Yep, mea culpa. I disregarded (correctly) the initial gold rally but didn't notice that this rally created a HL and it was then a better time to buy into the gold sector. A few trades in these sectors would have certainly helped kick it along. That's history, but it shows what can happen when you get distracted.

ASF010716.PNG
 
I only mention this in case a few of you have been finding it difficult also. You're not alone. The day traders have been reaping some rewards but the volatility has not been good for the short and medium term traders. One big down day cancels several up days.

May I suggest setting some alert levels for some of the worst performing stocks during FY16... statistics have shown that, sometimes the tax loss selling is done and these stocks kind of just find their own upward momentum. That's how one would get lots of signals in the gold sector, for instance.
 
Worst performing stocks (?)
Do you mean prices that are clearly in a downtrend like EHE, BOQ, WOW . . . ? Where we need a reversal setup?
or
Do you mean those in longer term up trends that have gone done this month (June) like TWE, CGF, CGC . . .? Where we wait for the up trend to resume?
 
Worst performing stocks (?)
Do you mean prices that are clearly in a downtrend like EHE, BOQ, WOW . . . ? Where we need a reversal setup?
or
Do you mean those in longer term up trends that have gone done this month (June) like TWE, CGF, CGC . . .? Where we wait for the up trend to resume?

I think he means the former.
 
2016-07-03 RCR re ASF.gif


Hi Peter

Would RCR be considered a candidate for your retracement trades?

Buy @ $1.75
iSL @ $1.66

Cheers,
Rob
 
Lone Wolf: There is another reason that the portfolio value has remained steady for a while. You and others must have realised it but were too polite to mention it. This portfolio has not traded in any gold, lithium or graphite stocks. What have been the best performing sectors for the past few months? Yep, mea culpa. I disregarded (correctly) the initial gold rally but didn't notice that this rally created a HL and it was then a better time to buy into the gold sector. A few trades in these sectors would have certainly helped kick it along. That's history, but it shows what can happen when you get distracted.

Hi Peter,

Thank you for adding this. I wouldn't have commented on it though. Even if you say you were distracted and could/should have done better, I think it's realistic to assume everyone will have times when their system doesn't perform optimally. Maybe you chose the worst time to take an overseas holiday, or got sick, or picked the wrong sector to invest in, or were just unluckily invested in the lowest performing stocks at the time despite following the rules. It happens. It is important to recognise when you've made less than optimal decisions, but I don't think we can ever eliminate poor performance. There will always be times when you miss the train.

My post wasn't a complaint about poor performance (you have significantly outperformed the index). It was just to say, we accept the fact that we will always have periods where our system doesn't turn a profit - What can we do in addition to improve consistency?

The way you filter out certain sectors is interesting to see though. Some people have very little filtering on their stock selection, thinking "you can't guess where the next big move will come from". Others simply turn the system on/off with an index filter of some kind. Some even use an equity curve filter. I do believe in filtering stock selection, but there will be times you miss the best gains because you were sitting out. There will also be times when you jump back into a sector on perceived strength just to see it immediately tank. Once again, you can take steps to limit risk of under performance, but sometimes it's just not going to work out.
 
Worst performing stocks (?)
Do you mean prices that are clearly in a downtrend like EHE, BOQ, WOW . . . ? Where we need a reversal setup?
or
Do you mean those in longer term up trends that have gone done this month (June) like TWE, CGF, CGC . . .? Where we wait for the up trend to resume?

This is what I meant... It's research by Wilson's and I have not done the analysis myself. But it's an interesting enough concept to explore.

Capture.jpg

Looking at the chart, there seems to be a fair bit of variability across different years.
 
This is what I meant... It's research by Wilson's and I have not done the analysis myself. But it's an interesting enough concept to explore.

View attachment 67319

Looking at the chart, there seems to be a fair bit of variability across different years.

That note actually excludes the top 2 and bottom 3 sectors to avoid momentum override. Eg. Oil stocks in July last year were still tethered to the plummeting US oil price.
 
That note actually excludes the top 2 and bottom 3 sectors to avoid momentum override. Eg. Oil stocks in July last year were still tethered to the plummeting US oil price.

Yes they have a fair bit of discretion in their analysis. I think if I find a collection of stocks in the same sector (e.g. oil stocks), I would watch overall sector exposure carefully, or hedge it against the oil price or something.

Personally I think looking at the worst performers over June among stocks which have -20% return for the FY (i.e. tax loss candidates who actually got sold leading into EOFY) might yield better candidates.
 
Thanks skc, for the suggestion.

Hello Rob (rnr), re RCR (in the context of this threads TP)

Is the weekly trend up? I'd say no and that is the first requirement to consider for a pull-back setup.
I'm not suggesting that price can't go up. I'm only saying that this chart doesn't fit with this threads PB setup atm.

I note that your bars are coloured the same as mine. I like them, but not every change to a blue bar is an auto buy. I scan for the first blue bars and then put the charts through a checklist to find the higher probability opportunities. The weekly trend is on top of the list. I look at the weekly charts and the "nature" of the recent price swings.

On the daily chart, RCR shows that the recent price swing is corrective and the prior swing was impulsive. This would indicate that the next swing will be impulsive and go up. This is a valid "ambush" PB setup for a short term trader. Ignoring the weekly context I'd wait for a close >1.80 with a iSL at 1.65 (very similar to your suggestion).

I would prefer to trade this type of setup in charts where the weekly trend is clearly up and there is much more volume. One could become awkwardly stuck in RCR if there were to be a rush to sell (check for scheduled news is a must).
 
Wyatt: Nicely done presenting the RCG chart for comment (post #480). That was a very timely post (before today's news) and I'm thankful for your contribution. :xyxthumbs (*)
I did consider including a trade in RCG for the thread, but declined as it was more of a reversal setup rather than a trend continuation.

(*) We need a "cheque's in the mail" smilie.
 
Hi Peter2,

RMS is shaping up as a nice trade for this portfolio. Check out the chart and see what you think. Broke above the trading range it had been in with excellent volume supporting the move today.

Stop can be pretty close to the entry price as well which is nice from a risk management point of view and being able to leverage the position up.
 
Hi Peter2,

RMS is shaping up as a nice trade for this portfolio. Check out the chart and see what you think. Broke above the trading range it had been in with excellent volume supporting the move today.

Stop can be pretty close to the entry price as well which is nice from a risk management point of view and being able to leverage the position up.

rmsdaily.jpg
 
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