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ASX Momentum Trade Book - Part 2

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hi all
been away for a bit but i'm back now. made a little money with IFN, would have probably made more if i traded more (not much of a priority though as the weekly has been in a down trend for a long time). gave me a chance to learn. looking forward to when both daily and weekly are running up as they normally do so i can hopefully get something good out of all this.

some helpful posts here...

never thought of worrying about which wave to go in ie early waves. but i'll keep it in mind (early waves are better, as trend likely to run longer). thing is, if you kept going in on bal, you wouldn't be going in on an early wave but much later on .

peter, just wondering, you mention trading weekly charts. when i trade daily, i like to wait till it's about 3pm and then go in on the breakout (or next morning ). so for weekly i'd do the same, but with the weekly candle (so i 'd come in at end of the week ie Friday i guess). although you do seem to use daily chart to come in? so you would come in earlier than me i guess. shouldn't u just use the weekly charts?(really like the idea of leaving stops out of the market, although i still put them in just very far away - in case we get the 1987? crash where shares went down about 70% in one day. better not )
 
Re CIM: Yes, I can't add to this one as it's already above max position size (12%). The setup of a shallow pullback in a strong trend makes it perfect for this thread, but my irrational bias keeps me out. A quick +1R in a week is always nice, but I find it hard to take. Maybe I should frame the trade and put it in this thread as a form of therapy.

If you're trading weekly charts you have a little more time to enter and exit if you want it. I may buy the daily breakout (trading the weekly charts) as the levels are generally the same in both time frames. This thread only uses the daily charts.
 
peter2 said:
Re CIM:The setup of a shallow pullback in a strong trend makes it perfect for this thread, but my irrational bias keeps me out. A quick +1R in a week is always nice, but I find it hard to take.
Click to expand...

Just for interest, I have it as probably my top ranked stock (of decent size) and will most likely be picking some up. So I hope that it turns out to be a case of bias and that it keeps going! It was interesting for me to look at this thread and see the chart. I don't often look at charts anymore, except for pure interest (i.e. no effect on trading decision), so it was an interesting thing to see it and go, 'woh!' for a second. I totally get what you're saying.
 

the thing is, if you come in same time as you would if trading the daily chart, it could be in the middle of the week, so the volume might not be there (on the weekly chart that is, so setup not therefore validated). i'm thinking i would come in after the weekly candle completes (monday) or just b4 the end of the weekly candle (e.g. friday, late thursday). that way my weekly candle will have completed or near completed and i can avoid false breakouts , and the weekly candle will have the volume behind it.


i've been under the impression that regardless of the timeframe one uses, they need a full or near full candle's worth of data before they make a decision. else you can buy into false breakouts.
 
Trading Update: EDE trading halt for capital raising.

Normal market dynamics between supply, demand will be interrupted by the news of the capital raising. The price will now move according to the details of the raising once they're released (Mon 23/5).

As a short term trader I hate these events, because they interfere with the market. We will exit this trade on the next open, hoping to get at least 0.29.

Investors are in their element as they have another report to analyse once the news is released.
 

Market's respond to capital raising is difficult to gauge. Although I'd say in many instances it'd be down at least initially... MTR today and APN last week are examples where the stock price has held up well despite capital raising.

It's worth paying some attention on the ex-date for capital raising. Some companies put an ex-date at some date after it comes out of trading halt... in which case the dilution is yet to happen (theoretically) while punters seek to establish a position to take advantage of the cheaper new shares. You might get lucky and exit at a good price (or choose to hold to qualify for the offer).

I guess what I am saying is it's good to have a plan but also good to be open to change the plan based on new information.
 
EOW 64 update: ASX Portfolio +21.9% ( 66% invested in 5 trades ) XAO -8.2% (past 64wk)

Both our portfolio and the market showed a small rise this week. A good outcome for the portfolio as we had to take a slightly larger loss on TPP.

This weeks sells: TPP plus a bit of slippage as price slipped lower.
This weeks buys: nil

We've got plenty of cash available and I'll be on the hunt for some more trades next week. Perhaps in the small cap sector as they may not be impacted by a market dip. I'll also keep an eye on gold stocks as the POG has dipped.

Outlook: I must admit to being a little bearish this week as the US traded at the 2040 support level. It may still fall below this level soon. I even thought about hedging a fraction of our long only portfolio by buying an inverse(bear) ASX ETF (BBOZ). For educational purposes only of course. If I see a good low risk short setup I'll short the index in preference to buying a bear ETF (less margin, 24hr market). Buying a put option on the ASX would also be a low cost solution for a little insurance in case of a market dip.

If we do see a dip soon, I would think it to be a good opportunity to buy into some strong weekly trends on the ASX.

 
peter2 said:
...
The reminder is to look at the bigger picture (weekly chart) and to select first/second BO's.

View attachment 66698
Click to expand...

but value_snatcher thought it good to get back into BAL well after the 2nd or third weekly breakout... can you clarify? had a quick look , seems like there are many trends that just keep going up and up for ages..
 
Trading update: New trade. There are a few attractive charts atm (LHC, PRG, EPD).

EPD: Bought as price traded >0.40, iSL 0.35.
A nice BO-HR after trading sideways for a few months.

 
peter2 said:
Trading update: New trade. There are a few attractive charts atm (LHC, PRG, EPD).
Click to expand...

I have all 3 of these. The charts look good and the breakouts all driven by company news.
 
EOW 65 update: ASX Portfolio +22.7% ( 66% invested in 5 trades ) XAO -7.3% (past 65wk)

Our portfolio edges higher with the market. We've raised a few TS's higher to protect open profits.

This weeks sells: EDE: Sold after news of the capital raising ( -0.7R).
This weeks buys: EPD

LPE: Traded at our T2 target price 0.049 today, but I pulled our limit sell order before it traded there. I have raised it to 0.054 (T3) as the trend looks strong atm.

Outlook: The ASX is actually looking more bullish for the first time in a long while. We'll remain cautiously bullish. I must admit that I'm battling my bias against buying BO-NHs after quick rises in price. There are many good chart trading opportunities atm and I will start more trades next week. No dip yet, but we're getting near the EOFY and the tax selling (and the election).

 
Trading update: New trade

GXL: Bought BO-HR (at 7.75), iSL 7.40 for this short term portfolio.
Price can get a bit volatile and our iSL is placed to maximise our RR if price goes higher immediately.
Note: My own iSL is much wider to allow some price volatility.

 
gxl - interesting pic, but no volume . TME had a gap up 2 days ago, but also no volume ...
 
grah33 said:
gxl - interesting pic, but no volume. ...
Click to expand...

Correct and that makes the tighter iSL the more riskier selection.
As this is a shorter term trading thread we can keep an eye on the price movement and take precautions to protect our capital quickly.
 
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