ARR - Arasor International

Need some purchase orders coming through.
I can't get any info on whether Mitsubishi are using Arasor's optical chips.
I contacted Arasor and they said they have a relationship with Mitsubishi but any discussions are confidential. So we can only find out if Mitsubishi make an order off them.
As for Real D chips being in the Mitsubishi I'm not sure they have anything to do with the laser component as they will fit into other HD tv's as well AFAIK.
Mitsubishi do not disclose their component makers either.

Definitely need that downtrend broken through.

I took a position today, seems to be plenty of buyers soaking up shares at this level. Good volume for the past week without much movement in price.

Mac Bank ann. for offloading shares yesterday hasn't helped today.
High of 0.37 Low of 0.31 and currently at 0.34.
Relatively good volume still: 866,748.

(Still holding ARR, and still hoping the little smiley man will one day break thru the wall)

the AGM is today at:
Phillip room, Sheraton on the Park Hotel,
161 Elizabeth St. Sydney
at
2pm.

Some positive price movements this morning
High 0.43
Low 0.35
Last 0.43
Vol: 571,254

Hopefully it will it bottom this week coming,
Looks like a parabola forming from April's high,
so if this continues the SP will start nudging back up again.
If the SP breaks through that downtrend line from the chart (see earlier post) it could mean better days ahead as the only way I can see it doing that is with some really good news.
I'm still quietly confident of this one.

3 tests coming up for this stock in the course of the next month or so as far as I can see.
If Mitsubishi is going to use their light engine we should hear pretty soon, though it might just be an order to an undisclosed recipient. fingers crossed for that one.

(if any of the T/A's would like to comment on my analysis I'd love some feedback, pretty new to this.)

*not investment advice, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Bottom of 24.5cents today so far.
announcement of optical networking contract with Pirelli.
No figures for the contract unfortunately, an explanation why not would've been nice unless it is part of their not giving guidance strategy for the next 6 months.Still keeping shareholders in the dark, very frustrating

'Arasor International Limited (ASX:ARR) has been awarded a new optical networking
contract by Pirelli PGT Photonics S.p.A to produce integrated tunable laser assemblies
( ITLA) .
As one ITLA can serve as a backup or a replacement for all WDM (Wave Division
Multiplexing) laser sources within a DWDM system these will deliver significant cost savings for customers through reduced inventory as well as faster and more flexible switching. The traditional solution of multiple WDM transponders accounted for the majority of the cost in the optical network.'

I cleaned up the above chart a bit.
Next few days are looking crucial to staying in the parabola as well as breaking the short term downtrend.
Hoping for a gravestone doji sitting on about 20cents on Friday or Monday and hopefully recovery from there.

*not financial advice, yadda, yadda, yadda.

closed at $0.315 today.
Up $0.095 for the day.
On the upside of the parabola and broke through short term downtrend.
Things are looking up.

Is it fair to say we have hit bottom with this?

I bought this afternoon, liking the upward trend of the graph, really interested to see whether this can get back into the 40s.

hopefully it has hit bottom,
there was a very keen player in the market today
I quickly counted after close in the course of sales
39 orders of 10054 or 10055 shares.
This would suggest it was all the same buyer.

The price is keeping above the parabola so far, so all is
going well from my perspective.

I think its hard to understand busines for ARR. ************* recomment it at $3 but looks really bad call for them. I am still bearish about this stock bcoz don't have clear visibility about the stock and hard to understand business.

I agree it is hard to understand, and what I have come up with so far is that
the Mitsubishi laservue will have 3 components.
1)RealD 3d chip made by RealD
I have checked Real D's corporate site and have found no mention of a contract with Mitsubishi.
2)DLP chip - Made by Texas Instruments and I have looked on Texas Instrument's site and found no mention of a contract with Mitsubishi.
The TI DLP HD4 chip is in use in devices at the moment and possibly the
HD5 DLP chip will be used in the Laservue
3) Laser light engine - possibly from Arasor or other laser company such as QPC. I'm betting that it will be Arasor's but there is no mention of Mitsubishi contract on either QPC's or Arasor's website although Mitsubishi and Texas Instruments are both mentioned in Arasor presentations. The DLP chips need a light source and have used globes or LED's but in the Laservue they will be using a laser light engine.

I bring up these 3 components as it is interesting that Mitsubishi are keeping their cards pretty close to their chest when it comes to their component makers and no component makers ave an announced a contract with Mitsubishi. It is their policy not to reveal component makers but Arasor will have to make an announcement if they get an order or sign a contract. That will be the first we know of it. Hopefullty it will be soon, though even if Arasor miss out, they are well placed to sell their product to other tv makers as well.

The contract with ZTE International is funded by the China Progress bank for $300m. This will help to reduce the size of laaser light engines and optical chips so they can be used in mobiles with projectors as well as movie projectors. Potential for monitors and other laser displays.

The high speed broadband is the part I don't quite understand but this could be news in the following years as Mac Bank might make a bid for it in Australia.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23705625-643,00.html

"TELSTRA has held talks with rivals Optus and AAPT over a possible deal on the Rudd Government's $12 billion national broadband network tender as potential new bidders, including Macquarie Group, increased the pressure on the former monopoly.

Macquarie is preparing its own bid for the fibre-to-the-node (FTTN) network, which would have no telecommunications industry equity and be a stand-alone network offering prices as much as 40 per cent below those charged by a Telstra-owned network. "

Promising technology so far, but not much out in the marketplace.

update on ARR parabola chart.
Hopefully some good news on Tuesday morning so the price will continue to trend inside the parabola:

I stuffed up the other parabola.
Realised this today when the price broke down.
I should've been looking at examples of ellipses.

Well the price broke down from the ellipse and on Friday a gravestone doji formed on the old low. Could be a good sign that the downtrend is ending.
Things might not pick up Monday but hopefully in the new FY.

Hi, I was wondering if anyone has done some competition analysis on the likelyhood that Mitsubishi would award the laser TV contract to Arasor? i.e.
qpc -laser ?
"http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/industrials/qpc-lasers-wins--million-contract-red-green-blue-lasers-d-laser-projectors/"
the Company (qpc) announced a $12 million contract with another customer for Laser TV in December 2007. I would be guessing that would have been around the same time Mitsubishi would have been procuring for their first pilot model early this year. Yes Arasor supplied components to initial prototype, although with their strugle to upsize are they the front runner for such a contract with Mitsubishi??

- Just some brief thoughts, im sure im probably missing something more crucial to the story.

Would be nice to see a break out of trend!

I can only speculate, the indicator of orders from Mitsubishi I am using is RealD and Texas Instruments. I haven't checked lately if they have had any orders from anyone for laser tv components and it seems to be common kowledge that they will be used in the Laservue. I'll probably have a look around next week.
RealD for the 3D chip
Texas Instruments for the High Definition chip
which will need a laser light engine, hopefully from Arasor.
It's getting close to find out one way or another.

the latest press release on RealD's website:
http://www.reald-corporate.com/news_events.asp
is dated May 20, 2008, no sign of any contract with Mitsubishi yet.
I can't really find much info on the Mitsubishi site as far as announcements go

http://focus.ti.com/pr/docs/pressrellist.tsp?&sectionId=594&startIndex=0

the site for news from Texas Instruments, no news of contract with Mitsubishi, I haven't found the site for Mitsubishi press releases yet. I'll keep looking.