ARR - Arasor International

[Gurgler]

Trading halt called - until Tues 28 Aug.

This is in preparation for a capital raising placement. What will this mean for this already susceptible stock?

Any views?

 

[redandgreen]

glad I sold yesterday (at a loss)

Don't think it is the sort of stock I would want to hold at this stage in the cycle lots of blue sky but.........

my opinion only

 

[Gurgler]

glad I sold yesterday (at a loss)

Don't think it is the sort of stock I would want to hold at this stage in the cycle lots of blue sky but.........

my opinion only

Know how you feel - sold half yesterday as you did.

What is it about tech stocks with potential like this; they don't seem to have gained real market popularity - and thus remain fairly dormant. Do you think this situation will change over time? I also hold IRI, with a similarity in that there is an internet connection. But it has been locked into a sideways corridor for years - except for the recent dive .

BTW R&G what are you referring to when you say 'lots of blue sky' - were you referring to the future?

 

[redandgreen]

"blue skies"....I was referring to an optimistic future..... I lost heaps on dotcoms in the past so my pain threshold is very low when it comes to tech shares

 

[Ken]

I think this stock requires more attention.

Paterson's have a good track record and for them to forecast price targets of over 400% from todays share price I suggest it would require more research.

It may be a 3-5 year stock, but even some accumulation on weakness could be on the cards.

Are there any issues with there technology becoming outdated?

 

[Gurgler]

Are there any issues with there technology becoming outdated?

Ken

This is exactly the problem with 'technology'. Who knows what new technologies will evolve in the next 3-5 years?

Just look at the growth in some of the lower tech areas over the past 5 years: we thought USB discs (which have effectively replaced A-drives and floppies) were all the rage 3 years ago for data storage. Now their place in the sun seems under threat from the I-pod/MP3/MP4 era of consumerables. I wonder what will evolve next year.

When it comes to the technology that ARR is into, I'm in the dark as to risks. However, I'm worried that there is something out there.

(still holding tho' for the present)

 

[Ken]

ARR seems a little different because they are generating revenues at the moment.

Its a hard business model to follow, I think it is worth 2-3% in a portfolio.

Which is what I have given it in mine.

 

[Jerstir]

I've just been doing a bit of digging to see if Arasor is worth holding onto and came up with the following: I 1st looked into Arasor due to their association with Huawei..

26th Sep 2006
Pirelli Broadband Solutions and Arasor Enter into a Strategic Partnership for Technology Development and Commercialization of ITLA Optical Modules for the Photonics Marketplace
.
.
Milan and Berlin, 17 September 2007 ”” Pirelli Broadband Solutions, the broadband access and photonics company within the Pirelli Group, today announced that it has begun volume shipments of its ITLA optical solutions to Huawei Technologies.

A bit disturbing that they don't mention Arasor in the article but I assume the joint venture is still in existence. More digging reqd..

If anyone didn't know, Huawei is a China based telecommunication company which competes with Cisco & other players such as Nortel, Ericsson, Marconi etc. in the Networking & Wireless Telephony space. Whilst not having anywhere near the market penetration of Cisco or range of products, they do appear to be gaining market share and from all accounts have a reliable and very cost effective range of products.

I do know that a 2nd tier Telco, i.e. not Telstra/Optus etc. operating in Oz is replacing their current Marconi DWDM communications equipment with Huawei.

Type in "Huawei 2007 China" to google for a heap of background info. a snippet is below:

Huawei Projects 36% Rise In 2007 International Sales
May 2007 | Company Finance Alert

China's largest telecoms equipment supplier Huawei Technologies expects that sales from its overseas contracts will rise by 36% this year to US$15bn, compared to the US$11bn reported in 2006. With 65% of the vendor's revenues deriving from the international market, a significant portion of this will arrive from business with Africa, which is expected to rise by 70-80% this year on top of the US$1.08bn reported last year.

You can just imagine what growth potential they have at home also....

Just something else to hopefully give Arasor's earnings a boost and maybe some revitalised interest in their sp....

 

[Gurgler]

This ann. today and a 6.74% drop to $1.80 - go figure!
Am I reading this wrong - is this bad news?

Australia set to become world leader in micro-photonic technology
platforms
The Bandwidth Foundry (a wholly owned subsidiary of Arasor International ASX:ARR) and Macquarie University’s Centre for Lasers and Applications are set to establish Sydney as the world leader in the development of micro-photonic technology platforms.
The program will be supported by over $4 million in Federal and NSW government funding.

 

[Ken]

A becoming substantial holder announcement.

I am confused as well.

It looks like a great growth stock.

But its out of favour out of sector out of touch.

Do you buy the dog without a kennel??

 

[Steve1]

What on earth is happening with Arasor's sp. A couple of months ago Wright from Pattersons raised his recommendation to a buy from a speculative buy. His price target is $8.80. In previous research he stated that he could justify a sp of $10.00.
Is the sudden sp drop due to a dilution of the shares from the recent buy-out?
I am still a great favourite for Arasor. However Arasor need to deliver on their expectation of big sales before gaining my confidence again.

 

[ta2693]

What on earth is happening with Arasor's sp. A couple of months ago Wright from Pattersons raised his recommendation to a buy from a speculative buy. His price target is $8.80. In previous research he stated that he could justify a sp of $10.00.
Is the sudden sp drop due to a dilution of the shares from the recent buy-out?
I am still a great favourite for Arasor. However Arasor need to deliver on their expectation of big sales before gaining my confidence again.

I always find when brokers' recommendation and price went on contrary, you had better trust the ppl who vote with this money and not the broker just pay lip service. If the broker's recommendation is for free and for public, that is always the case.

 

[ta2693]

I've just been doing a bit of digging to see if Arasor is worth holding onto and came up with the following: I 1st looked into Arasor due to their association with Huawei..

26th Sep 2006
Pirelli Broadband Solutions and Arasor Enter into a Strategic Partnership for Technology Development and Commercialization of ITLA Optical Modules for the Photonics Marketplace
.
.
Milan and Berlin, 17 September 2007 — Pirelli Broadband Solutions, the broadband access and photonics company within the Pirelli Group, today announced that it has begun volume shipments of its ITLA optical solutions to Huawei Technologies.

A bit disturbing that they don't mention Arasor in the article but I assume the joint venture is still in existence. More digging reqd..

If anyone didn't know, Huawei is a China based telecommunication company which competes with Cisco & other players such as Nortel, Ericsson, Marconi etc. in the Networking & Wireless Telephony space. Whilst not having anywhere near the market penetration of Cisco or range of products, they do appear to be gaining market share and from all accounts have a reliable and very cost effective range of products.

I do know that a 2nd tier Telco, i.e. not Telstra/Optus etc. operating in Oz is replacing their current Marconi DWDM communications equipment with Huawei.

Type in "Huawei 2007 China" to google for a heap of background info. a snippet is below:

Huawei Projects 36% Rise In 2007 International Sales
May 2007 | Company Finance Alert

China's largest telecoms equipment supplier Huawei Technologies expects that sales from its overseas contracts will rise by 36% this year to US$15bn, compared to the US$11bn reported in 2006. With 65% of the vendor's revenues deriving from the international market, a significant portion of this will arrive from business with Africa, which is expected to rise by 70-80% this year on top of the US$1.08bn reported last year.

You can just imagine what growth potential they have at home also....

Just something else to hopefully give Arasor's earnings a boost and maybe some revitalised interest in their sp....

Very nice information discovery. Thanks for your effort on ARR.
But for this one, I have more question than information I can offer.
what sort of strategic pirelli and ARR have? will they share their profit?
How much Pirelli can make out of ITLA solution? Is the volume large or margin high or both? How much benefit ARR can make from the strategic relationship with Pirelli?
Is the ITLA Arr's main business? how is the performance of Arr's other business.

 

[ROE]

What on earth is happening with Arasor's sp. A couple of months ago Wright from Pattersons raised his recommendation to a buy from a speculative buy. His price target is $8.80. In previous research he stated that he could justify a sp of $10.00.
Is the sudden sp drop due to a dilution of the shares from the recent buy-out?
I am still a great favourite for Arasor. However Arasor need to deliver on their expectation of big sales before gaining my confidence again.

Not sure how someone can recommend a buy when the company is not making money? EPS for 12/06 is -31 cents .. to me that is burning money and it has to be a speculative

 

[Ken]

Cant see it getting any easier for ARR shareholders.

Unless they have some unbeleivable news out, they will probly get hammered tommorow. If they step below $1.50 into the $1.40's, and $1.30's you could say it is going to be very brave buying, as your going into unknown territory.

The fundamentals are some what blurred for investors by Patersons report I think.

 

[Gurgler]

Cant see it getting any easier for ARR shareholders.

.... If they step below $1.50 into the $1.40's, and $1.30's you could say it is going to be very brave buying, as your going into unknown territory.

Yes, you're right there. Been down to 1.35, but currently on 1.41. I've decided to stick it out patiently and wait for a long term reversal of this downward trend. At some stage, surely their technology and the liaisons they have formed will become recognised and valued (or am I just kidding myself?!? ).

Given that I only hold half the volume you have, what are your thoughts for the future?

 

[Gurgler]

This today from FN Arena's Weekly Insights:

ARR - What is wrong with Arasor ((ARR))? It is an oft heard question these days, including from readers of this Weekly Analysis. It would appear one institutional investor in the US has lost his patience and is selling all shares at any price, forcing the share price to drop to near $1.50 this week, the price at which the company floated last year. The share price peaked at close to $4.00 in April this year. Don't expect a recovery before this shareholder is finished selling.

So, if this is true, it will require more patience until that institutional investor has disgorged itself!

 

[michael_selway]

This today from FN Arena's Weekly Insights:

ARR - What is wrong with Arasor ((ARR))? It is an oft heard question these days, including from readers of this Weekly Analysis. It would appear one institutional investor in the US has lost his patience and is selling all shares at any price, forcing the share price to drop to near $1.50 this week, the price at which the company floated last year. The share price peaked at close to $4.00 in April this year. Don't expect a recovery before this shareholder is finished selling.

So, if this is true, it will require more patience until that institutional investor has disgorged itself!

Hm how much shares do they still hold?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -31.6 9.2 29.6 48.0
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Arasor International Limited (ARR) is a developer and provider of integrated optoelectronic and wireless solutions that drive greater bandwidth and richer content to consumers. It has a global customer base operating in the telecommunications and consumer optoelectronics industries. Optoelectronics deals with electronic devices for emitting, modulating, transmitting and sensing light signals.

thx

MS

 

[robdido]

Hi. Im new here and also new to buying shares.

I bought 1000 shares at 1.71 last year of ARR.

I don't know how the market works very well, but from looking at this company I can't see anything wrong with them, so don't know why they have lost so much in such a little time.

Im going to stick with them, as from reading up on them they have a strong board of directors and the technology seems pretty savvy.
Plus china and india emerging.

Maybe the release of their Laser TV range of Televisions in early 2008 will see results.

 

[Techie]

Maybe the release of their Laser TV range of Televisions in early 2008 will see results.

LaserTV seems to be just a marketing event to boost their IPO. Have you heard about it since then? I suspect we won't see too many laser TVs at the beginning of 2008. Contrary to ARR statements, no major producer other than Mitsubishi has plans to introduce the technology.