AQA - Aquila Resources

[56gsa]

Increase of 1.211 Billion tonnes of coal to the Resource Statement for the Belvedere Coal Project to 3.866 Billion tonnes

what is this worth - i'm trying to get my head around these numbers?? I understand this is bituminous coal which is selling for $150 per tonne (why is it so hard to find prices for coal??). If this is right then there just seem to be a hell of a lot of zeros on the value of this project (the increase is $180bn in itself - tell me this isn't right) (25% AQA)

they have just announced an initial resource for red hill (100% AQA) of 75mt - this is metallurgical coal (i think worth $300 per tonne?) - so thats another $22bn??

 

[imajica]

you are right on the money! The market has always failed to value AQA correctly - in time, the share price will truly reflect their world class coal and iron ore interests

 

[Sean K]

Nice little ascending traingle happening here leading to potential breakout from 2 months of consolidation.

 

[dj_420]

what is this worth - i'm trying to get my head around these numbers?? I understand this is bituminous coal which is selling for $150 per tonne (why is it so hard to find prices for coal??). If this is right then there just seem to be a hell of a lot of zeros on the value of this project (the increase is $180bn in itself - tell me this isn't right) (25% AQA)

they have just announced an initial resource for red hill (100% AQA) of 75mt - this is metallurgical coal (i think worth $300 per tonne?) - so thats another $22bn??

Yes it is a big resource but Vale have 75% and they also carry the option to buy out the remaining 25% from AQA. Very poor management IMO for a world class resource which will no doubt be bought for a song.

And in the case of this resource, do you think that Vale would actually let AQA retain a 25% holding if they had that option to control the entire resource?

Mismanagement of assets or incomplete understanding of what was actually in the deposit. AQA should have proven up the resource and then opened the door for farmin partners, not the other way around. Anyway just my two cents. And one more point is that if Vale buy out the remaining 25% AQA don't even carry any FOB royalties!!! Just something to think about.

 

[Go Nuke]

WOW..down 16% today so far!!!

Resources are getting smashed today.

Good buying oppertunity for some perhaps?

 

[Caliente]

YES. I have just picked up about 2000 Units. Looking for a bounce tommorow.

MCC has bounced really nicely off the $14 level. I can't believe how badly it got trashed after announcing its foray into the Pilbara for its massive IO project.

Huge IO. Huge Coking Coal. This one is going to bounce. Grab some before market close if you want....

-Cali

DYOR - not a financial adviser etc etc... =)

 

[imajica]

Something to think about:

BHP buys New Hope coals New Saraji deposit for 2.5 billion (690 Mt of coking coal)

AQA has 25% share in Belvedere (950 Mt of coking coal) - If we assume the BHP valuation as a ball park figure then this is worth around 3.4 billion dollars.

This is massive as it gives the market a tangible indication as to how much their share is worth. If Vale makes an offer of this magnitude then this would almost match AQA's current market capitalisation. Moreover, the 3.5 billion is pretty much the funds required to fully develop their huge pilbara iron ore project. This is huge people!

 

[grace]

Something to think about:

BHP buys New Hope coals New Saraji deposit for 2.5 billion (690 Mt of coking coal)

AQA has 25% share in Belvedere (950 Mt of coking coal) - If we assume the BHP valuation as a ball park figure then this is worth around 3.4 billion dollars.

This is massive as it gives the market a tangible indication as to how much their share is worth. If Vale makes an offer of this magnitude then this would almost match AQA's current market capitalisation. Moreover, the 3.5 billion is pretty much the funds required to fully develop their huge pilbara iron ore project. This is huge people!

Well, you might be cheating yourself short here.
Sale for new Saraji was
$2.5 billion cash
$1.2 billion in BHP shares (last time I looked they were still worth something)

$3.7 billion Total
I've always wanted to try and value this thing, but I've lacked the skills on coal. Do you want to have another go.

 

[dj_420]

Vale has the option to take out that project 100%, I dont know why everyone keeps ignoring that point. Might be worthwhile looking at the clauses and identifying what AQA would actually get if Vale exercised this option rather than valuing it off a BHP transaction. Just IMO.

 

[imajica]

Yes they can exercise that option for 4 or 5 billion dollars !!!

That would only send AQA's share price into orbit

 

[bryan_palmer]

Up 16% today, what's going on with Aquila? Has it got something to do with the fact that FLX is in a trading halt?

 

[Go Nuke]

wow.

Why the sudden and big jump in AQA's share price today?

Speeding ticket in the mail?

I know BHP is also having a good day, but I wouldn't have thought that would have much to do with AQA's exposure to iron ore.
Coal perhaps?
CEY is up 8%+ today and MCC up 6.4%.

Shame my coal juniors aren't up like that

 

[imajica]

http://www.aquilaresources.com.au/files/AFR 080820 pg 20.pdf


This article explains why, confirmation of demerging of exploration assets later in the year, huge takeover talks - there will be strong interest in the stock

 

[Go Nuke]

Well I'm going out on a limb here and saying that AQA has formed a triple top!

I know fundamentaly it has alot of upside, but chart wise I see the triple top:

I believe this will come back to around $12.
A fall to this value would probably put it on the 200 day MA as well, which would act as support.

Bollingers are also way out there, so a retracement back to the lower band is also fuel to my belief.

Mind you, we could see a rebound in resources which would change everything

 

[AlarmClock]

Just notices this article, what do you think? -

CITIC Group, the largest state-owned investment enterprise in China, shows interest in bidding for the iron ore and coal assets in Aquila Resources, the fourth-largest Australian mining company by market capitalization, the South China Morning Post reported on Monday, citing market sources.
CITIC is considering buying both the iron ore and coal assets that Aquila has put up for sale.

Last month, the Australian company had assigned investment banks Citigroup and Macquarie to conduct a strategic review and had begun to approach several interested parties on the matter.

CITIC Group may realize the acquisition directly or through subsidiary CITIC Resources Holdings<1205>, according to sources.

Wuhan Iron and Steel Group, the mainland's third-largest steel company, had also expressed interest in the proposed sale of Aquila's iron ore assets, sources said earlier.

However, potential bidders are still waiting for Aquila to disclose more details the assets it intends to sell, according to the source.

 

[JTLP]

MAMMA MIA!

Has this market darling taken a fall from grace or what! From its highs of just 2 months ago to almost at its 52 week low...and boy has it been a whopping drop. They have massive reserves in Iron Ore and Coal, planning spin offs, look to be stable...might have to inspect this one a little closer...

 

[michael_selway]

MAMMA MIA!

Has this market darling taken a fall from grace or what! From its highs of just 2 months ago to almost at its 52 week low...and boy has it been a whopping drop. They have massive reserves in Iron Ore and Coal, planning spin offs, look to be stable...might have to inspect this one a little closer...

Yeah not sure what happened here

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 46.4 34.2 48.7 --
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 --

thx

MS

 

[JTLP]

Wellity wellity wellity...does this announcement contribute to the massive fall that AQA has suffered:

Aquila Not To Proceed With Demerger of Exploration Assets

Basically outlines the credit crunch and equity markets as not being the best time to float...yadi yada will look to redo it when stability returns.

Dropped nearly 15% for the day...ouch

They actually received a please explain from the ASX 12 days before this ann...surely some of the bigger boys must have known...

I do not own but am looking to...what are others thoughts on this ann and AQA

 

[Miner]

Wellity wellity wellity...does this announcement contribute to the massive fall that AQA has suffered:

Aquila Not To Proceed With Demerger of Exploration Assets

Basically outlines the credit crunch and equity markets as not being the best time to float...yadi yada will look to redo it when stability returns.

Dropped nearly 15% for the day...ouch

They actually received a please explain from the ASX 12 days before this ann...surely some of the bigger boys must have known...

I do not own but am looking to...what are others thoughts on this ann and AQA

They have put all strategic appointments in a pseudo halt
Kevin and his team having interesting time
Nothing to blame and they are doing a favour to accept the reality. What happens they recruit and then sack . Gosh

 

[Sean K]

Oh dear, what a disaster for buy and holders from the peak. eeeek!

I'm tempted to put this in the bottom pickers thread and take a pluck that $2.00 was a bottom, but it's just a pluck based on the last 4 months of consolidation between $2.00 and $4.00, but it's still gently sliding more downish. Would have to take a break through $4.00 maybe for it to look anything but bearish longer term, but cripes, that's about 75% gain from here....

Maybe turnaround story once IO and coal outlook is better? Maybe another easy target for the Chinese?