APT - Afterpay Limited

[aus_trader]

If they keep growing the way they are, I would be surprised if a bank doesnt buy them out.

Now that Z1P and APT are both large caps it wouldn't be easy to come up with the money for the purchases. The small cap days are clearly over for both as they are multi-billion dollar big caps now.

But since there is an actual disruptive business against the banks (not just pure speculative hype that usually happens with the "Next Tech Stock"), I would still consider them as growth stocks.

 

[Knobby22]

Picked it again for February (despite looking like coming second in the comp this month).
I think the price has been held down by factors and will continue rising this coming month.
Preliminary report should be good.
Also the virus effect should be minor.

 

[bigdog]

Hit all time high today of $38.62

ASX announcment today
31/01/2020 10:35:50 AM Change of Director's Interest Notice (SPP) x4

Four APT Directors all got their 85 shares at $23 (they really needed the extra 85 shares!!)
Elana Rubin

Anthony Eisen

Nicholas Molnar

Clifford Rosenberg

I hold and also got my 85 shares this week

226

 

[bigdog]

Just announced

Details regarding 1HY2020 Financial Results

Afterpay Limited (Afterpay) will release its Financial Results for the six‐month period ended 31 December
2019 on Thursday 27 February 2020.

An investor briefing will be held via a live audio webcast at 10.30am (Melbourne time) on Thursday 27
February 2020.

The webcast will be accessible via a link on the Afterpay website www.afterpaytouch.com a week prior to
results.

For those wishing to ask questions during the investor briefing please email marie.festa@afterpay.com
for further details.

 

[bigdog]

Today is all time high of $39.39

News is recent days per Financial Review

https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/afterpay-drives-booktopia-uni-textbook-sales-20200131-p53wjv

Afterpay drives Booktopia uni textbook sales
Simon EvansSenior Reporter
Feb 3, 2020 — 12.00am

Booktopia chief executive Tony Nash says vast numbers of university students are using Afterpay's buy now, pay later service, helping drive the online retailer to become the No. 1 player in academic textbook sales.

Mr Nash said the arrival of Afterpay and similar services had delivered a ''sweet spot'' for university students who wanted to stretch out the payment schedules for textbooks as they worked part-time jobs in the hospitality industry or elsewhere.

"It's been just in the right sweet spot,'' he said.

Booktopia will expand its business through the purchase of The Co-op Bookshop, which plunged into administration last year. After striking a deal on Thursday with administrators PwC, Booktopia has already shifted the back end of The Co-op's websites into Booktopia's supply chain.

Mr Nash declined to say how much Booktopia had paid for the business. "I'm not at liberty to disclose that,'' he said on Friday.

Booktopia, which expects to generate revenue of $175 million in calendar 2020, won't have any physical stores operating under the Co-op banner on university campuses in Australia. The Co-op had 34 stores on university campuses last year.

Mr Nash said it may keep open a physical store in the Sydney CBD on Phillip Street which had a solid customer base in the legal and finance sectors.

A decision on that store's future would be made in about four weeks. "There's no rush,'' Mr Nash said.

Mr Nash said Booktopia was already the top retailer of higher education academic textbooks in Australia prior to the purchase of the Co-op business.

Most university students still wanted a physical textbook in their hands rather than an e-book, but had grown up in the digital age and spurned lining up outside bricks and mortar stores to buy their textbooks like the previous generation had done.

401

 

[bigdog]

https://www.ig.com/au/news-and-trad...analysts-continue-to-rate-the-stock-a--200205

Local broker Bell Potter continues to be the most bullish on the company’s prospects, rating it a ‘Buy’ and hitting the stock with a price target of $49.35 per share.

I tipped year end price of $60 for APT

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Definitely a sector that splits opinions. Personally, if I see AfterPay or its ilk being pushed by a retailer, I'd ask for a 10% discount on 'any advertised price' as they say (not the RRP construct, either). Half for what the merchant is giving away to APT and the same again for them thinking I'm a mug.

Saw this somewhere:

Critics argue the business model's big weakness is that the 3.8 per cent fee it charges merchants will have to come down as the number of competitors offering cheaper fees grows.

In other words, Afterpay's business model has a narrow moat, because there's no complex technology, intellectual property or monopolistic market position to stop retailers or shoppers using alternatives.

The competitor roll call is growing all the time, with Zip Pay, Humm, Sezzle, Splitit, Openpay, Brighte and CreditLine all offering similar services – often at the same online checkout points of retailers.

Perhaps a more serious competitive threat is the launch last month of Europe's largest payments and buy now, pay later player, Klarna, in Afterpay's home market of Australia.

and the 500kg gorilla usually wins.

 

[bigdog]

ASX Announcement 4 February 2020 Details regarding 1HY2020 Financial Results

Afterpay Limited (Afterpay) will release its Financial Results for the six‐month period ended 31 December
2019 on Thursday 27 February 2020.

An investor briefing will be held via a live audio webcast at 10.30am (Melbourne time) on Thursday 27
February 2020.

The webcast will be accessible via a link on the Afterpay website www.afterpaytouch.com a week prior to results.

For those wishing to ask questions during the investor briefing please email marie.festa@afterpay.com
for further details.

Authorised by:
Anthony Eisen
CEO & Managing Director

 

[frugal.rock]

...Half for what the merchant is giving away to APT and the same again for them thinking I'm a mug

Wish I was telepathic...
So about the merchant thinking your a mug, is this a common occurrence?
What about online purchases, can you read the AI bots thoughts?
Does scowling work online as well?
All very interesting.
Merchants need to make a living also, not to mention pay employees.


F.Rock

 

[fergee]

Definitely a sector that splits opinions. Personally, if I see AfterPay or its ilk being pushed by a retailer, I'd ask for a 10% discount on 'any advertised price' as they say (not the RRP construct, either). Half for what the merchant is giving away to APT and the same again for them thinking I'm a mug.

Saw this somewhere: and the 500kg gorilla usually wins.

Seriously this post deserves a prize! Great call @Dona Ferentes
I cant get into the mind set of using APT or its ilk its just more debt it's not what people need right now. I prefer people owing me money not owing it to other people!

 

[sptrawler]

Seriously this post deserves a prize! Great call @Dona Ferentes
I cant get into the mind set of using APT or its ilk its just more debt it's not what people need right now. I prefer people owing me money not owing it to other people!

I agree, the problem I have with it is, it is just like layby except with layby you can go home and think about it and decide it was an impulsive buy and walk away, lose the $2 deposit.
With afterpay, you take it with you so there is no cooling off period, mugs game that will be shut down, when all the mugs get on 60 minutes IMO.
I could be wrong, and I've lost a lot of money not getting on board, but Australia has a habit of protecting the mug and punishing the supplier of the money.
Just look at the Banking Royal commission, it was the Banks fault for lending money to the dopes that provided dud information to get it.
The dope wasn't done for presenting fraudulent information.
Just my opinion.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Wish I was telepathic...
So about the merchant thinking your a mug, is this a common occurrence?
What about online purchases, can you read the AI bots thoughts?
Does scowling work online as well?
All very interesting.
Merchants need to make a living also, not to mention pay employees.

I have no problem with a provider of services or goods making a profit. In fact I'd prefer that to be the case. They'll be there next time if I wish to utilise them. I just don't like subsidising others' indulgences

 

[sptrawler]

I have no problem with a provider of services or goods making a profit. In fact I'd prefer that to be the case. They'll be there next time if I wish to utilise them. I just don't like subsidising others' indulgences

You are spot on Dona IMO, the problem with afterpay, someone hastopay when it backs up.
With a credit card the risk was factored into the interest rates, they were becoming unatractive and young people were changing over to debit cards, afterpay has moved them back to the buy now pay later model.
The difference is no one is factoring in the losses IMO.
In reality, the interest free period on credit cards was a buy now pay later no cost, then that was maxed out.
All that has happened is it is a credit card by a different name. IMO
I think it will be spanked hard, sooner or later.

 

[aus_trader]

All that has happened is it is a credit card by a different name. IMO
I think it will be spanked hard, sooner or later.

Not an expert on the different Buy-Now-Pay-Later products. But with regards to the interest and fees you have to pay on credit cards if you miss the no-interest period, Afterpay may be favoured by those that have been burnt by credit cards and harassed by debt collectors.

 

[fergee]

I agree, the problem I have with it is, it is just like layby except with layby you can go home and think about it and decide it was an impulsive buy and walk away, lose the $2 deposit.
With afterpay, you take it with you so there is no cooling off period, mugs game that will be shut down, when all the mugs get on 60 minutes IMO.
I could be wrong, and I've lost a lot of money not getting on board, but Australia has a habit of protecting the mug and punishing the supplier of the money.
Just look at the Banking Royal commission, it was the Banks fault for lending money to the dopes that provided dud information to get it.
The dope wasn't done for presenting fraudulent information.
Just my opinion.

Exactly @sptrawler I remember buying my first surfboard on laybuy this is nothing new just an old idea digitised. It is a perfect system to take advantage of the me/now generations impulsivity but I cant see how extreme high private debt levels and a cooling in retail spending can be net positive for this. Yes I know they are expanding their customer base overseas but most western nations have the same high consumer debt problem. This is another momentum play in my opinion once the trend breaks this will be brought back to reality valuation wise in a flash.

 

[sptrawler]

Not an expert on the different Buy-Now-Pay-Later products. But with regards to the interest and fees you have to pay on credit cards if you miss the no-interest period, Afterpay may be favoured by those that have been burnt by credit cards and harassed by debt collectors.

Wont the same happen with afterpay, when people can't pay it off?

 

[aus_trader]

Wont the same happen with afterpay, when people can't pay it off?

No as far as I could tell and Knobby22 made a comment with similar observation earlier.

Afterpay will stop the customer from further purchases as soon as they miss a payment. There is no interest on interest and outstanding debt and allowing the customer to continue to purchase and go deeper and deeper into debt spiral, which is the case with Credit Cards.

Another big difference is, there is no 19%+ interest charged from customers as with Credit Cards. Banks are still doing this (19%+ !!) in a near 0% interest rate environment and getting away with it despite all the Royal Commission mumbo jumbo. With a whole lot of lending products like Afterpay and it's competitors coming to the market, I wonder how long the oink's can keep squeezing the Cash Cow udders (@above19%pa) of the indebted population.

 

[fergee]

No as far as I could tell and Knobby22 made a comment with similar observation earlier.

Afterpay will stop the customer from further purchases as soon as they miss a payment. There is no interest on interest and outstanding debt and allowing the customer to continue to purchase and go deeper and deeper into debt spiral, which is the case with Credit Cards.

Another big difference is, there is no 19%+ interest charged from customers as with Credit Cards. Banks are still doing this (19%+ !!) in a near 0% interest rate environment and getting away with it despite all the Royal Commission mumbo jumbo. With a whole lot of lending products like Afterpay and it's competitors coming to the market, I wonder how long the oink's can keep squeezing the Cash Cow udders (@above19%pa) of the indebted population.

So once customers miss a payment they get barred from using the platform. With credit cards you get exorbitant interest added but you are only barred until your debt is paid off then once cleared you can keep using the facility therefore customer retention is higher in that regards compared to APT.

Im unsure on the process APT uses once a customer defaults as to how they can gain access to the platform again so that could be interesting. I believe customer retention for APT is currently very good but that could change, that and the default rate would be the obvious metrics to monitor.

Just my

 

[Knobby22]

So once customers miss a payment they get barred from using the platform. With credit cards you get exorbitant interest added but you are only barred until your debt is paid off then once cleared you can keep using the facility therefore customer retention is higher in that regards compared to APT.

Im unsure on the process APT uses once a customer defaults as to how they can gain access to the platform again so that could be interesting. I believe customer retention for APT is currently very good but that could change, that and the default rate would be the obvious metrics to monitor.

Just my

As others have said, you should think of it more as a laybuy system rather than a credit card.

It's easier for the shop keeper. Those people who get all annoyed about it should think what layby costs the merchant.

And having our youth avoiding credit cards and the grasping banks is a good thing.

The default rate is an obvious metric to monitor. The longer Afterpay is in a market, the more the default rate drops as the bad users are winnowed from the system. If you miss your payment you get blocked. Once you pay it you can be back but you won't get your limit raised for a while. If you keep missing payments you will be banned.

 

[fergee]

As others have said, you should think of it more as a laybuy system rather than a credit card.

It's easier for the shop keeper. Those people who get all annoyed about it should think what layby costs the merchant.

And having our youth avoiding credit cards and the grasping banks is a good thing.

The default rate is an obvious metric to monitor. The longer Afterpay is in a market, the more the default rate drops as the bad users are winnowed from the system. If you miss your payment you get blocked. Once you pay it you can be back but you won't get your limit raised for a while. If you keep missing payments you will be banned.

I totally understand it is a type of lay buy system where you can take the goods on the day as opposed to a traditional lay buy where you have to pay off the total amount before taking possession of the item.

And I agree it is better than using a credit card or O/D.

It is still a form of credit and it still encourages spending beyond ones means as opposed to saving up and then purchasing.

@Knobby22 Good info on the process for non payments, cheers

I actually think APT is a great business but IMO it is currently over valued especially in this retail climate..... in saying that it is on my " stocks to buy in a crash watch list"