Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

APT - Afterpay Limited

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Ann said:
I cannot tell you how pleased I missed these five Island bottoms, Rob. I previously mentioned this over in my KISS thread in the trading journals section. Although right from the start the chart looked more like a trader's toy than a genuine business. It is not a stock I have ever contemplated or watched. It always looked like a high priced pump and dump to me.

I can only imagine how many people must have been caught up as it isn't a rare or unheard of chart pattern. It can only leave a really bad taste in many folk's mouths. What is the saying "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me." Fool me five times and I will hate you forever and never forget. That last bit was my make up!

...and the chart of APT I had previously put up on KISS...


View attachment 135323
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Not meaning to be pessimistic but if there is another crash what do posters feel this little piglet’s intrinsic worth would be.

Obviously it would bounce and fall off previous support and resistance lines.

gg
 
KevinBB said:
I'm guessing here ... but the majority of those share sales and purchases would be reported because of the reduction in WBC's market cap over the
Ann said:
...and this is what I was looking at on the Westpac site under shareholders, I didn't do any close-up and personal investigation in the announcements.
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past 6 months, compared to other large stocks, and the resulting daily adjustment inside the ETFs that BlackRock manage.
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Sorry to confuse folks Kevin, I meant, I was on my Wespac trading account site and went to APT shareholder section. This is a list of shareholder sales and purchases over a given period for APT, nothing do do with WBC the company. Hope that makes it a bit clearer.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Not meaning to be pessimistic but if there is another crash what do posters feel this little piglet’s intrinsic worth would be.

Obviously it would bounce and fall off previous support and resistance lines.

gg
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I will put up another chart on the weekend GG and see what I can see, as in where there may be a potential support line somewhere along the line. After all BR and V need to buy some stock to return before they start to short it again. So let's see if we can find a level where they may do that.
Dona Ferentes said:
Zip?
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...or do you mean Z1P Dona? :happy:
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Not meaning to be pessimistic but if there is another crash what do posters feel this little piglet’s intrinsic worth would be.

Obviously it would bounce and fall off previous support and resistance lines.
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I doubt holders will need to wait for another crash to see this work its way down the chart and start bouncing or failing other support lines.

Now as far as its intrinsic worth, how would one know when a company is showing -156.3 net profit down from the previous year of -19.78 net profit. As Dona said...
Dona Ferentes said:
Zip?
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Speaking extrinsic value, whatever the mug punter can be sucked into paying?

Without banging on for ages as it is all on my chart, there appears to be support around now at $70 to $72, although it has failed a bullish falling wedge so it may not offer much support.

I note the NVI indicator is showing the 'smart money has been moving away from APT for some time.

APT bull trap 7.1.22.png
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Not meaning to be pessimistic but if there is another crash what do posters feel this little piglet’s intrinsic worth would be?
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it went up today, $77.00 close and a 5% lift. And for optimism, try this, from Macquarie:


Macquarie says that the Bank of Spain’s (BoS) approval of Block’s acquisition of Afterpay has created a short-term opportunity for Afterpay shareholders. Earlier this morning, the Bank of Spain approved the transaction, marking the last regulatory hurdle for the deal.

“Since announcement of the proposed acquisition, Afterpay shares have been trading largely in line with Square’s (Block), since the beginning of 2022, however, the discount gap has widened, in our view reflecting potential risk that the deal would not go ahead due to delays from BoS approval,” said Macquarie analyst Wei Sim. “This has created a short-term opportunity for Afterpay shareholders as the gap between the two should now close as all regulatory approvals have been received.”
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The broker noted that Afterpay’s share price should trade in line with Block’s going forward which it believes is still undervalued. Macquarie retained its “outperform” rating on Afterpay with a price target of $160.
 
$APT is currently trading at its lowest levels since September 2020 after tech stocks resumed their sell-off during US trading last night.

The stock looked like it could be gearing up for a new leg higher on Wednesday after news broke that Bank of Spain had provided the final approval needed for Afterpay’s acquisition by Block. But selling pressure today has pushed $APT to break below support around $70.

It’ll be interesting to see if buyers look to accumulate shares at this level in the build-up to the takeover, or if the prospect of tighter monetary policy sparks a deeper pullback.

Of course, all trading carries risk, so the situation should be closely monitored before any decisions are made.
 
Yeah so this has been going well lately hasn't it?


APT's now being booted from the ASX200.
 
Block shares listed quietly on the ASX on Thursday with none of the fanfare and adulation that greeted Afterpay’s monster deal with the US-based payments tech company formerly known as Square.

The intervening five months have seen a massive sell-off in tech stocks and increasing regulatory scrutiny on Afterpay’s buy now, pay later model in the United States, the main attraction for Block’s purchase. Shares in the payments giant founded by Jack Dorsey began trading on the ASX at a price of $176.08 and stayed within a tight band and with low volumes for most of the day.

“Block is a lot less relevant for domestic investors, and we’ve seen with other dual listings they can sometimes drop off people’s radar,” said Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners. “At the same time, the Block business is so different to Afterpay that investors will either take some time to become comfortable with it or will look elsewhere.”
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Jamie Hannah, deputy head of investments and capital at VanEck, pointed to rising bond yields as a persistent problem for companies like Block. Mr Hannah said the buy now, pay model will be under pressure once interest rates increase and the likelihood of repayment falls.
“Like many technology companies of recent years, there has been a big push for revenue growth at the expense of profit,” Mr Hannah said, adding there is a real risk to companies that aren’t generating a profit when markets turn south. “Block currently makes credit card readers that plug into mobiles amongst many other features,” he said. “By purchasing APT, Block is expanding its offering into the finance space by offering alternatives to paying ‘now’. This will no doubt come at a risk of overextending credit in a rising rate environment.”
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Trading under the ticker SQ2, an estimated 20 per cent of Block’s total market is represented through CHESS Depository Interests (CDIs) on the ASX.


As an investment case, Block has two main parts to its business. Its Seller business manages payments and lends money to merchants, while its Cash App business allows consumers to transfer, spend and invest money. Thanks to the slick technology, Square could attract a wave of younger consumers and tech businesses comfortable with operating their finances through smartphone apps. As it stands, the company has 4 million merchants and 40 million Cash App active users on the platform.

Ms Liu said Tribeca, which had a substantial holding in Afterpay, sold out of the buy now, pay later business once the Square deal was announced.
“A lot of Afterpay investors have faced this challenge because Block is a very different type of business,” she said.
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Mr Hannah, who also sold out of Afterpay once the deal was announced agreed.
“We’ve made good returns out of APT, but in the current environment we’re happy to lock in our return and look to better investments,” he said.
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On February 2nd, 2022, Afterpay Limited (APT) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.11, following implementation of the scheme of arrangement between APT and its shareholders in connection with the acquisition of all the issued capital in APT by Lanai (AU) 2 Pty Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Block, Inc., formerly known as Square, Inc..
 
Why not company sells it shares to pay the debt and show a profit.
The balloon has been pricked for sure. This will probably give a domino effect on all BNPL stocks

Afterpay’s half-year loss balloons to $345.5 million​

Tom Richardson
Share post
Afterpay-owner Block has released accounts showing that Afterpay’s net loss ballooned to $345.5 million for the six months ended last December 31 from $79.2 million in the year-earlier period.

Afterpay’s operating loss nearly quadrupled to $263.7 million for the six months ended December 31, from the year-earlier $68.2 million.

Total income climbed 54 per cent to $644.9 million. Income from merchant fees made up $560.7 million, with late fees and other income reaching $78.5 million.

Bad debts ballooned to $176.7 million over the six-month period, versus $72.1 million in the year-earlier period. In effect bad debts made up 27.4 per cent of total revenue over the half-year.

In February, Block completed its acquisition of Afterpay by offering 0.375 Block shares for every Afterpay share.
 
I can't see their balance sheet improving... BNPLs peaked during covid lockdown + cheap money + free cash for individuals.

Looks like exec did well to sell when they did
 
waterbottle said:
I can't see their balance sheet improving... BNPLs peaked during covid lockdown + cheap money + free cash for individuals.

Looks like exec did well to sell when they did
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all true , @waterbottle .

and now we have this published in a national newspaper
Consumer rights groups in Australia have been blasting their energies attempting to rein in the buy now, pay later industry ... on the basis shoppers are suffering financial stress from companies not subject to usual credit protection laws. On the contrary, the shocking state of buy now, pay later accounts handily surmise one of the largest transfers of wealth (and Miele dishwashers and Fisher & Paykel fridges) from moronic shareholders to penniless consumers in recent memory.
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Take Afterpay, for instance. Unlike Zip, Afterpay conducts no credit checks on its customers before extending them, er, credit, of between $600 and $2000. If a customer decides not to make a single repayment on their newly purchased iPhone, the harsh punishment is ... a free iPhone! There are no credit history blacklists, and debt collectors are hardly kneecapping customers. The customer is just prevented from using the service again. And shareholders pay for it!
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There will surely be a lot more appetite to go after these BNPL guys now that afterpay is "American" owned and if labor get voted in as I recall they were ones looking for additional regulation in this sector. It's still crazy to me that ASIC has gone after the likes of Silverchef and Cash Converters over the past few years, but all these online lenders just get ignored and are allowed to operate with pretty well zero regulation.
 
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