Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

APT - Afterpay Limited

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galumay said:
Neecy, its probably not a great reason to buy, regardless of price! If your sole basis for an investment decision is a mention on TV about a business exanding into the US, then your money will be safer in a bank!

From an investment point of view you have to decide whether you think APT is currently trading at a discount to value, I have done no detailed analysis or research so I have no idea if that is the case or not.
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Thanks galumay, much appreciated, as you have noticed I need to study up. Bought a good few sya and my order of 2c didnt go through for vic.
 
I was under the impression that the retailer was stung for costs with this.....so for the consumer it would be the no brainer choice and hence a massive cash cow for afterpay. I now see that jetstar charges the customer $10 to use this option......so not such an automatic choice for the consumer. I wonder how many other retailers will push back against the fees over time?
 
HelloU said:
I was under the impression that the retailer was stung for costs with this.....so for the consumer it would be the no brainer choice and hence a massive cash cow for afterpay. I now see that jetstar charges the customer $10 to use this option......so not such an automatic choice for the consumer. I wonder how many other retailers will push back against the fees over time?
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The last time i booked jetstar im reasonably sure they charged a $10 card fee, so $10 anyway...and yes the consumers dont pay anything to use the service and the retailer isn't charged much either but does pay.
 
So_Cynical said:
The last time i booked jetstar im reasonably sure they charged a $10 card fee, so $10 anyway...and yes the consumers dont pay anything to use the service and the retailer isn't charged much either but does pay.
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Methinks point missed and now clouded.....my comment was a little red flag for long holders through this expansion and beyond. (not advice, just thoughts, coz I make stuff up)

Why flag for long: it is VERY difficult to value a company without good cash figures and knowing bad debts. So in years to come these will be need to be closely watched following this ...excitement.

with respect, "they charged a $10 card fee, so $10 anyway" shows me you almost got there. If fee for afterpay was nil then no-brainer choice. So looking at $10 fee......

Did you incur the fee - yes (note that this is a personal choice as fee free choices exist)
Did you pay the money - I hope so, so all debts wiped clean
What if you did not pay - card provider goes thru credit law process.

A $10 card fee for debit at 0.5% means total flights at bout $2K.

Nek person wants same $2K flight but only has $260 to their name...hmmm......
buy flight - pay $250 plus $10 fee (now broke but jetstar got FULL FARE coin from delay service)
take flight - was great
what about not pay next instal - better check credit law application - this might be a little problem as maybe company not come under credit law as not actually providing credit as no interest terms involved (I am not a lawyer so just making this up)

So to cover bad debts we need lots of people that will pay the bill using the service. For good payers the choice becomes do I pay a $10 fee and delay?, or just use Poli and pay nil fee?, or use debit and pay 0.5% (prolly much less than $10)? .......no longer a no-brainer choice.

If big retailers push back on fees what is your good payer to bad ratio?
(coz the big retailers are really your ideal market)

Not here to nit pick small points or argue over if it was 0.5% or 1% fee, but to stimulate the bigger research that may be required from us as shareholders. tired now, prolly wont do this again.
 
Short version for non readers.....

bad debt will kill you.......so you need to attract the PAYERS rather than be only attractive to the NON-PAYERS.
 
HelloU said:
Methinks point missed and now clouded.....my comment was a little red flag for long holders through this expansion and beyond.
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1.5 million unique customers and new merchants always get an immediate lift in sales, i suppose many users are doing it to save money by spreading out payments so its not like 10 bucks doesn't matter, 20 would be a deal breaker for some..

Investor beware as its still early days for afterpay and competitors will come and bad debts will grow along side revenues etc, i wouldn't be buying in at this price..
 
Any ideas with regard to the large volume spike in APT yesterday? Looks like >5m shares were traded on the day, new record. Short interest seems to be at record highs too.

Cause for concern?

APT shorts.PNG
 
Up near the all time high again...the shorts were right late march through to mid April then wrong since, the US expansion could see revenues climb what 1 or 2 or 3000% and then think China etc.

VISA or Paypal have to get interested at some point soon i would think...there is no way some big international doesn't come in and buy em.
 
Smashing through $8 to a new all time high of $8.78 ~ no announcement yet, someone accumulating? its a big move up.
 
So_Cynical said:
Smashing through $8 to a new all time high of $8.78 ~ no announcement yet, someone accumulating? its a big move up.
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I see they've just entered the US market so I guess there's a lot of optimism about the revenue potential that huge market holds.

Are you aware of any US based competitors providing a similar service?
 
McLovin said:
They sure do.

https://www.paypal.com/us/webapps/mpp/paypal-credit-signin
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Then that's a pretty big competitor. I wasn't aware that they provided that service. I've only ever used Paypal for the odd online purchase with eBay.

I note the following from Afterpay's announcement concerning their US launch:
Afterpay will commence in the US as an online only platform with an intention to introduce in-store capability in due course. Initial transaction experience and learnings in relation to retail and customer dynamics will be translated into a programme of product development specific to the U.S. market. To effectively embark on this strategy, a U.S based team has been established with extensive skills across relevant business functions. This team will leverage core global infrastructure and processes now established in Australia with the benefit of applying strong local experience and capabilities.
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I wonder what Afterpay's point of difference will be? Paypal is so ubiquitous, I imagine it would be difficult for Afterpay to make themselves stand out as a viable alternative. If they're not at the point-of-sale in retail outlets (at least initially) then sales will only be online which is where Paypal dominates. It will be an uphill battle to gain a foothold.
 
greggles said:
Then that's a pretty big competitor. I wasn't aware that they provided that service. I've only ever used Paypal for the odd online purchase with eBay.

I note the following from Afterpay's announcement concerning their US launch:


I wonder what Afterpay's point of difference will be? Paypal is so ubiquitous, I imagine it would be difficult for Afterpay to make themselves stand out as a viable alternative. If they're not at the point-of-sale in retail outlets (at least initially) then sales will only be online which is where Paypal dominates. It will be an uphill battle to gain a foothold.
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It's a competitor that's bigger than Comm Bank and is used as a verb in the US for payment. Throw in Amazon and Apple which at some point will want to get involved, imo, even if it's just to break the dominance of Visa and MC in payments and APT is the poorly funded upstart playing with three giant gorillas.
 
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Afterpay will commence in the US as an online only platform with an intention to introduce in-store capability in due course.
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I find this strategy a bit odd. They are going into a market where their strongest and largest competitors live. I would have expected them to start with the in-store which is their strength and where they have most experience.


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McLovin said:
It's a competitor that's bigger than Comm Bank and is used as a verb in the US for payment. Throw in Amazon and Apple which at some point will want to get involved, imo, even if it's just to break the dominance of Visa and MC in payments and APT is the poorly funded upstart playing with three giant gorillas.
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Someone will buy em, its just so obvious, an near certainty...whats a lousy 2 or 3 billion for the big players.
 
So_Cynical said:
Someone will buy em, its just so obvious, an near certainty...whats a lousy 2 or 3 billion for the big players.
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Probably. I still can't believe the multiples this thing is trading at for what is not much more than a finance company with a mystery algorithm that I'd bet will blow up when the next downturn hits.
 
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