Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Nice flash crash on Friday arvo. Looking ready to drop like a stone today. Sub 22's maybe.
 
And a ticket to boot

Partial quote from the ann this morning:

3. If the answer to question 1 is “no”, is there any other explanation that APT may have for the recent trading in its securities?

In answering this question, please comment on an article in the online edition of the Australian Financial Review by Sarah Thompson and Anthony Macdonald entitled

‘Sting in the tail at Afterpay as shares fall sharply’ which suggests that investors have reacted to a Visa Card announcing it would pilot a ‘suite of Visa’s instalment solutions’ which will enable customers to opt to pay for transactions via instalments using a Visa card’. Afterpay Touch Group Limited ACN 618 280 649 Phone: 1300 100 729 Level 5, 406 Collins Street, Melbourne VIC 3000 Media reporting may have influenced the recent trading in APT securities however APT is unable to confirm that the change in price or increase in volume was specifically related to this factor. There are many factors which may influence the intraday price and trading volume of listed securities. We note that other ASX listed companies operating in this sector (including Zip Co (ASX:Z1P) and Splitit Payments (ASX:SPT)) also experienced similar movements in share price over the same period.

Fin Riv article > Sting in the tail at Afterpay as shares fall sharply

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/sting-in-the-tail-at-afterpay-as-shares-fall-sharply-20190628-p522cd
 
APT down 7.1% on open this morning

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ASX Announcement today

APT 1/07/2019 9:43:11 AM Response to ASX Price Query
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Sold all my remaining Afterpay shares except for a sias holding at $22.52 at open.
As most are aware all my shares are on a loan so I can't afford to lose capital.

I figure that all the automated/system traders will be selling over the next two days.
I may buy back in at a lower price especially if it drops to below $15. I don't think the model is completely broken. Also have the SPP option should I be wrong to at least get a few shares back.

My big hope was that Mastercard or Visa would buy them out; not go into competition.
 
Recently, there's been a significant amount of volatility in the Afterpay share price. More recently, there's been some doomsdaying about Visa planning to release their BNPL service.

What's interesting is that, Mastercard had tried this twice - once back in 2016, and once in September 2018. Despite this, Afterpay continues to grow and dominate the retail segment, which begs the question: why will people behave any differently this time around to Visa, that they didn't do to Mastercard?

In the video, I deep dive into Afterpay's Web and Mobile traffic numbers, interest, backlinks, referrals, interest over time, in their 3 core markets: USA, UK, AUS.



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ASX ANN today
2/07/2019 8:59:57 AM APT Board & Organisational Update

The Afterpay Touch Group share price was higher after announcing a change of CEO and an overhaul of its board. One of the many changes sees co-founder Anthony Eisen replace fellow co-founder and current CEO Nick Molnar in the top job. Mr Molnar will become the company’s Global Chief Revenue Officer.

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My decision to sell most of my holding was very poor. Misjudgment of the intelligence of the market. Need to look at buying in at higher price.
 
The Age reports today
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...rpay-in-battle-with-visa-20190710-p525z9.html

AFIC backs Afterpay in battle with Visa
By John McDuling
July 11, 2019 — 12.00am

One of the nation's biggest investment houses has backed Afterpay's ability to withstand a challenge from credit card giant Visa, as Goldman Sachs cut its forecasts and urged the company to step up innovation to remain ahead of its rivals.

Australian Foundation Investment Company chairman Mark Freeman said he was watching Visa's entry to the 'buy now, pay later' market closely, but he was optimistic Afterpay could beat back its advances.

"Afterpay have established an entrenched user base now...You just have to walk around shops and see how it's being used," he said. "It's up to Visa to try and disrupt that."

AFIC, founded in 1928, holds Afterpay shares in its Mirrabooka, ASX-listed investment company. And Mr Freeman said he expects to hold the highly polarising stock for the long term. "We want to be part of the company for the long term, it's doing everything we want to see a company do," he said.

In a research note distributed to clients on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs analysts Ashwini Chandra and Grace Fulton downgraded their recommendation on Afterpay to 'neutral' from 'buy' and lowered their price and earnings forecasts for the company.

Goldman has been one of the most prominent bulls in Afterpay during its meteoric rise. It added the stock to its 'buy' list in June last year, and since then it has increased by more than 200 per cent. The broker said the company continues to execute strongly in the US, and the downgrade was made largely on the basis of its valuation.

Visa sent Afterpay shares tumbling last month when it said it was planning to enter the instalment payments market the Australian company pioneered. Yet while some investors appeared to view the credit card giant's entry to the buy now, pay later market as a threat to Afterpay, Goldman said on Wednesday "we do not consider this likely".

It said questions remain around how Visa's product will be structured, whether it could cannibalise its existing credit card offerings, and how it will be funded, it said.

Afterpay currently charges merchants a 4 per cent fee on each transaction processed through its platform. Users are not charged any interest on purchases but are hit with late fees if products are not paid off on time, in four instalments.

Visa's credit cards are typically issued through banks, and Goldman said it did not think they would wear the cost of a new instalments product.

"We think it unlikely banks will absorb this cost themselves," the analysts wrote. "If banks choose to charge the consumer, there exists risk consumers could view the product as relatively less attractive than the [Afterpay] model which is free to the user if all payments are made on time.

"If the banks choose to charge the merchants, this would require them to negotiate agreements with each merchant individually."

Afterpay faces a growing array of competitors in the US and UK, which are much bigger markets than Australia and central to bullish hopes about the company's potential. These include Affirm, a venture-backed startup founded by Max Levchin, a member of the so-called 'PayPal mafia', Stockholm based Klarna and products issued by financial industry incumbents.

Goldman Sachs said the company needs to ramp up innovation to stay ahead of these rivals, by developing new products or better harnessing the data it collects.

The Goldman Sachs downgrade comes after an eventful few weeks for Afterpay during which its three co-founders sold shares worth $100 million, the company raised $300 million in fresh capital, it was issued with multiple 'please explain' notices by the ASX, and financial crimes regulator AUSTRAC said it was investigating the company over potential breaches of money laundering laws.

Afterpay shares closed 10¢ lower at $25.59.

770
 
Motley Fool Reports today
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/07/16/...with-larger-stake-in-tech-start-up-change-up/

Afterpay aims to expand moat with larger stake in tech start-up Change Up

Tom Richardson | July 16, 2019 | More on: APT Z1P AAPL V

Afterpay Touch Group Ltd (ASX: APT) short sellers or ‘bears’ often claim it does not have much of a moat or competitive advantage to defend itself from competition from credible rivals like Visa Inc, Z1p Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P), Klarna or Sezzle.

However, one of its competitive advantages now comes via the size of its network. For example in Australia if you’re a millennial or retailer and want to use buy now, pay later services you’re going to use Afterpay as it easily has the most retailers and service providers such as dentists or budget airlines like Jetstar.

The more retailers Afterpay has the more shoppers it attracts and vice versa. This shows how the multiplier power of a network effect has built many great businesses.

It would be difficult for a competitor to gain much traction against it in Australia now, as Afterpay has market dominance and consumers are unlikely to switch to multiple accounts.

In fact the only thing that could shake its grip on Australia is probably a very deep-pocketed competitor prepared to wear many years of losses in the hope it can take market share by offering retailers much lower fees.

An important way companies can build out strong network effects or ‘moats’ is by adding ancillary services to their core products that keep consumers locked in their eco-system.

U.S. tech giant Apple Inc. is a good example with its iTunes, Apple Pay, Apple TV, and iCloud services among others that keep users replacing their iPhones or Macs.

While on the topic of eco-systems, The Australian newspaper is today reporting that Afterpay has lifted its stake in Swedish fintech start-up Change Up to 45 per cent.

Afterpay reportedly inherited its original stake in Change Up after its transformational merger with Touchcorp in 2017 that set the joint business on its way to blockbuster success.

The Change Up app is powered by Touchcorp payments technology and allows retailers in Scandinavia to pay shoppers their change digitally, which eliminates the need to carry small coins around in your pockets or purse.

Afterpay also reports the app helps retailers increase sales by integrating promotions with electronic discount codes, while it also potentially widens Afterpay’s network effect or eco-system if it could be offered to all its retailers or consumers.

These kind of digital change or automated change saving fintech apps like Acorns, Chime and Digit are quite common globally, but the challenge they all face is gaining the scale to make them profitable.

For example back at university only one friend of mine had a mobile phone, it was a great product, but he had no one to call, until the network effect was built out.

A company with Afterpay’s network can provide that platform straight up to a product like Change Up to give it a potential major leg up ahead of its many competitors.

The Australian did not report any financial terms of the deal and Afterpay has not confirmed the deal or whether it got any change digitally. Given Afterpay now has over $317 million cash on hand after a recent capital raising it won’t be material to its balance sheet.

The stock has been on the slide over the last week as investors digest the Visa news and a warning from Goldman Sachs that competition is strong in the UK.

Shares closed yesterday at $23.79.
 
Looking at this purely as a technical observer … neither negative nor positive view.

Couple of digs at the $28 high .. currently rejected on diminishing Volume

Previous high Volume bars to the daily low of $22.50 … important level in the short term.

Small Range formed recent days $23.40-$24.40 on lower relative Volume.

Above the short term Range and the most recent High Volume Bar at >$24.40 would feel a lot more comfortable in the short term if holding.

Below $22.50 not good.
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Motley Fool reports today
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/07/26/will-afterpay-be-disrupted-by-another-bnpl-provider-in-australia/

Will Afterpay be disrupted by another BNPL provider in Australia?
James Mickleboro | July 26, 2019

The Afterpay Touch Group Ltd (ASX: APT) share price will be one to watch this morning after reports of yet another new entrant to the buy now pay later (BNPL) market in Australia.

According to the AFR, Latitude Financial is planning to bring its BNPL platform to Australia in the near future.

What is Latitude Financial?
Latitude Financial, formerly known as GE Money, is Australia’s largest non-bank lender and has been widely tipped to list on the ASX later this year after pulling its ~$5 billion IPO last year.

It counts the likes of KKR, Varde Partners, and Deutsche Bank as shareholders, with all three reportedly keen to test the appetite of investors with an IPO.

At present its New Zealand-based business offers a BNPL product named Genoapay.

Genoapay allows Kiwi consumers the opportunity to buy products and services needed today, but pay for them over 10 weekly instalments. The platform is available in thousands of locations throughout New Zealand including retailers such as Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN), Playtech, and Furniture Zone.

As with fellow BNPL providers Afterpay and Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P), the signup process takes just a couple of minutes and includes Genoapay performing a real time credit check to let the user know how much they can spend.

Crowded market.
If Genoapay does in fact launch in Australia, it will certainly make for a crowded market.

Consumers can already choose from Afterpay, Zip Co, Splitit Ltd (ASX: SPT), and the FlexiGroup Limited (ASX: FXL) BNPL service, humm. Then there’s the probable arrival of US-based Sezzle in the near future.

It is expected to list on the Australian share market next week with a valuation of ~$220 million. Sezzle raised almost $44 million to fund its expansion, which is likely to include a foray into the Australian market.

And then there’s payments giant Visa, which recently revealed that it has its eyes on the fast-growing market.

With so many companies trying to win the attention of both retailers and consumers, I feel there is a danger that a price war could break out and impact the profitability of the industry.

I think it might be a little soon to panic, though. But I would suggest investors keep a close eye on how the market develops over the coming 12 months.

In the meantime, if you like exciting shares like Afterpay and Zip Co then I think you'll love this hot small cap stock which has been tipped for very big things.
 
CBA ASX half yearly announcements today included:

CBA has also announced on Wednesday its entry into the 'buy now, pay later' sector, saying it has invested $US100 million in Klarna, a European payments fintech valued at $US5.5 billion that has 60 million customers. CBA will partner with Klarna to expand its service into Australia and New Zealand, in competition with Afterpay.
 
Where there is an easy dollar to be made or lost, it wont take long for the space to become crowded.
 
Buy now pay later companies, starting to come under the spotlight.
The big problem I see with this payment method, as opposed to lay by is you take the product home, so there is no cooling off period.
With layby, people could just walk away from their minimal deposit, if they got home and after a few days had second thoughts.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...s-regulation-afterpay-complaints-zip/11416996
From the article:
Corporate regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), is also keeping a close eye on the sector and now has the ability to use its product intervention power if it sees consumers are losing out.

It found that more than 40 per cent of users had incomes of less than $40,000 and many were students or working part time.

It also discovered outstanding debt was growing fast, to the tune of more than $900 million in June 2018.

ASIC hasn't decided if the sector should be subject to responsible lending laws like other credit providers .
 
Buy now pay later companies, starting to come under the spotlight.
The big problem I see with this payment method, as opposed to lay by is you take the product home, so there is no cooling off period.
With layby, people could just walk away from their minimal deposit, if they got home and after a few days had second thoughts.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...s-regulation-afterpay-complaints-zip/11416996
From the article:
Corporate regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), is also keeping a close eye on the sector and now has the ability to use its product intervention power if it sees consumers are losing out.

It found that more than 40 per cent of users had incomes of less than $40,000 and many were students or working part time.

It also discovered outstanding debt was growing fast, to the tune of more than $900 million in June 2018.

ASIC hasn't decided if the sector should be subject to responsible lending laws like other credit providers .

Despite the fact that I am somewhat skeptical about this company's long term prospects, I;ve had a buy order in the market for some time and it might get triggered soon. Rather small speckie punt.

Without giving my judgement or political commentary on it all, speaking from a cynical point of view, it's a rather convenient ROAR from the regulator who promised more bite through the Royal Commissions process.
 
Despite the fact that I am somewhat skeptical about this company's long term prospects, I;ve had a buy order in the market for some time and it might get triggered soon. Rather small speckie punt.

Without giving my judgement or political commentary on it all, speaking from a cynical point of view, it's a rather convenient ROAR from the regulator who promised more bite through the Royal Commissions process.
Agree with your sentiments exactly.
 
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