APA - APA Group

[Value Collector]

OK but regulators and regulations change

now i can't imagine an Australia without gas .. but that is the agenda being pushed by some ( influential talking heads )

even our finance regulators got a big shake-up not so long back

APA could actually quite easily pay off their debt if needed, they would just have to stop paying dividends for a while.

At the moment Coal is Public enemy number one, and Australia plans to wean itself of coal over the next 25 years, but to do that will take a lot of renewables and gas.

In fact gas demand is projected to increase over the next 20 years as it is used to back up renewables as coal is phased out, also APA is a large investor is renewables and electricity transmission, so the climate change movement is kinda playing into APA’s hands.

(if you go back in this thread I have already explained how APA good clear their debt in a marathon discussion I had a few years ago with Luutz)

 

[divs4ever]

the rest of the fossil fuels will be next , don't worry about the economies they will simply print more debt ( and sell it to themselves )

this is MMT ( Monetary Madness Tripled ) at it's worst extremes

but don't worry coal will come back .. because you can cook in the backyard when the grid totally collapses ( when you can find some )

now the question is , when will they come after the gas in Australia ( they have already collapsed Germany , and the UK will be soon enough as well )

in a sane world yes APA as a bond proxy has some strong arguments for it

but what happened to 'sane ' it seems to have disappeared very late 2019

 

[Value Collector]

the rest of the fossil fuels will be next , don't worry about the economies they will simply print more debt ( and sell it to themselves )

this is MMT ( Monetary Madness Tripled ) at it's worst extremes

but don't worry coal will come back .. because you can cook in the backyard when the grid totally collapses ( when you can find some )

now the question is , when will they come after the gas in Australia ( they have already collapsed Germany , and the UK will be soon enough as well )

in a sane world yes APA as a bond proxy has some strong arguments for it

but what happened to 'sane ' it seems to have disappeared very late 2019

I am pretty confident that in 2040 we will be using more gas than we use now, but we will be using a lot less coal, and in the mean time APA would have expanded their renewable and transmission businesses.

Gas will be phased out eventually though, but by then APA‘s pipelines would have earned back the cash used to build them, and they will be heading towards the end of their life, and new investments will be replacing them.

 

[Value Collector]

APA released its half year results today, this slide from the presentation shows their updated asset map since the alinta assets were purchased.

It’s a pretty good portfolio of assets, diversified by type and end user. I also found the forecast of gas demand in electricity production doubling by 2050 as coal power stations close and gas is used to back up renewables interesting.

 

[Smurf1976]

Looking at the share price, so far it's down for 2024 but there's a possible double bottom on a daily chart with lows in October 2023 and recently last week at approximately the same level.

In terms of the business itself, they're doing some decent engineering work in regards to Basslink (Vic - Tas electricity transmission). Keeping it to layman's terms here, the CLPS (Cable Load Prediction System) is a means of optimising capacity basically and in practice enables use of some otherwise unutilised capacity without the risk of thermal overload and subsequent failure. This has relevance primarily to peak power (short duration) transmission in a northbound direction so Tas to Vic. Once commissioned, this has some positive revenue implications for APA as owner.

Some test operation of this system, albeit not to the limit of its capacity, took place on 21 and 22 February as part of the commissioning process. This is a "real" test in that it involved real electricity being transmitted for short periods above the previous static (fixed) operating parameters, it wasn't simply a simulation or theoretical test.

In simple terms it's a dynamic rating system taking into account actual conditions in real time. Such systems aren't an uncommon concept in engineering but hadn't previously been applied to this particular asset, indeed failure to apply such a system formed a key aspect of legal action brought against the previous owners of Basslink following its late-2015 to mid-2016 major failure.

This system could in theory also be applied to any other undersea or underground cables APA develops in the future. Or possibly some intellectual property of value for sale either outright or as a service / software to other operators.

 

[basilio]

Certainly a case for seeing APA expanding it's role in energy transmission.
With the huge increase in renewable energy requirements far more infrastructure will be required...

 

[Value Collector]

Certainly a case for seeing APA expanding it's role in energy transmission.
With the huge increase in renewable energy requirements far more infrastructure will be required...

Also, they seem to have developed a good business providing “micro grids“ to regional communities and mining customers.

eg, taking a community or mining area that traditionally ran on diesel generators, and setting up a micro grid powered by solar and batteries and firmed by gas generators.

check out the micro grids in WA and Mt isa on this asset map.

 

[basilio]

APA has become sun struck and gone solar

APA powers up Australia’s largest remote grid solar farm​

Gas and electricity company APA Group has launched Australia’s largest remote-grid solar farm, announcing the official opening of the 88 MW Dugald River Solar Farm in outback Queensland.
March 22, 2024 Ev Foley

• Installations
• Utility Scale PV
• Australia
• Queensland

Image: APA Group

Share​

The 88 MW Dugald River Solar Farm, formerly known as the Mica Creek Solar Farm, comprises 180,000 panels spread across 200 hectares of land near APA’s Diamantina gas power station outside Mount Isa in northwest Queensland.

The estimated $150 million power plant is capable of generating 240 GWh of clean energy per annum with the supply of renewable energy supporting the mining operations of resource companies MMG, Mount Isa Mines (MIM), and New Century through long-term solar off-take agreements.

APA powers up Australia’s largest remote grid solar farm

Gas and electricity company APA Group has launched Australia’s largest remote-grid solar farm, announcing the official opening of the 88 MW Dugald River Solar Farm in outback Queensland.

www.pv-magazine-australia.com

 

[Smurf1976]

Not a great deal to update on this one for the month in the context of the trading competition. Price is presently trending up but unspectacularly so, remaining below the 1 January entry point.

Separate to the competition I do however now own the stock with real money being traded on a shorter timeframe. Bought 18 March on a purely mathematical criteria that takes no account of fundamentals and so far that trade's in profit albeit only modestly. Stop is presently set just below the recent low of $7.78

 

[Value Collector]

Not a great deal to update on this one for the month in the context of the trading competition. Price is presently trending up but unspectacularly so, remaining below the 1 January entry point.

Separate to the competition I do however now own the stock with real money being traded on a shorter timeframe. Bought 18 March on a purely mathematical criteria that takes no account of fundamentals and so far that trade's in profit albeit only modestly. Stop is presently set just below the recent low of $7.78

The biggest driver of APA’s share price in the coming year will be what happens to Interest rate expectations,

their assets earn predictable cashflow, most are regulated, so there will never be any big surprises to the up side or down side imo.

this is just one of those shares you sit in your portfolio to produce steady dividends and decent growth over the long term.

but in the short term such as the past 18 months their share price gets affected by interest rates changing the return people want from the market, you can see it happening in reits too, as the market grows confident that interest rates have peaked, or that interest rates drop, the share price will rise.

 

[Smurf1976]

Nothing exciting to report with this one for April, price action being essentially sideways. Up, down, up now back down a bit. That said, it has held up better than the overall market.

Looking at a longer term view, using monthly data, nothing has yet occurred to say it's a failure but likewise, nothing's happened to say it's a success either. It's still (hopefully) bottoming in that sense.

 

[basilio]

What can I say about APA that hasn't been sayed before ?
How about an AI generated story that boosts t he upcoming earnings results.?

APA earnings: here's what Wall Street expects

APA will release earnings for Q1 on May 1.Analysts expect earnings per share of $0.921.Go here to follow APA stock price in real-time ahead of ear...

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[Value Collector]

 

[Value Collector]

 

[Smurf1976]

Nothing exciting to report with this one for April

And nothing very exciting for May either unfortunately. Price has run up since my last post then mostly back down again, so all rather unexciting, indeed it's gone net nowhere for the year thus far.

 

[basilio]

Ok Time to throw something up on APA. Thanks Debt Free

Nice little story.

APA’s mega solar and battery projects in WA​

Zihan (Fred) Zhang2 days ago

Image: Framestock/Stock.adobe.com

• APA Group is advancing renewable energy in Western Australia with the construction of the Port Hedland Solar and Battery Projects.

The initiative, which includes a 45 megawatt alternating current (MWAC) solar photovoltaic (PV) facility and a 35 megawatt (MW) / 36.7 megawatt-hour (MWh) battery energy storage system, will support large mining operations in the Pilbara region.

As the owner and operator, APA Group said the project is set to complement the existing Port Hedland Power Station (PHPS). Construction began in 2023, and the project is expected to be operational by late 2024.


APA Group shared on LinkedIn that the company is excited to share “a major milestone” in the construction of the Port Hedland Solar Farm and Battery Western Australia.

“All 34,016 piles have been successfully installed, marking significant progress in just eight weeks,” the company said.

“This incredible achievement is a testament to the hard work and dedication of the entire project team including Shanghai Electric Power Design Institute and Monford Group, and the collaborative efforts of all involved.”

The new infrastructure consists of the solar PV generation facility, the BESS, a one-kilometre 33 kilovolt (kV) cable connecting the solar PV facility to PHPS, and an extension of the 66kV switchyard at PHPS.

The Western Australian Government has committed $1.5 million from its Clean Energy Future Fund to support the BESS. This funding will help replace the spinning reserve currently provided by the gas-fired power station with energy stored in the battery, offering instant grid support when needed.

APA's mega solar and battery projects in WA

APA Group is advancing renewable energy in Western Australia with the construction of the Port Hedland Solar and Battery Projects.

www.ecogeneration.com.au

 

[Value Collector]

APA building and operating a solar and battery system to supply BHP's operations in the Pilbara.



And APA working on converting pipelines into hydrogen capable pipelines.

 

[Smurf1976]

Price action has been sideways for most of the month until a sharp gap down yesterday.

Given no announcements, I assume that fall relates to investor sentiment regarding broader economic factors eg inflation and interest rates?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Price action has been sideways for most of the month until a sharp gap down yesterday.

Given no announcements, I assume that fall relates to investor sentiment regarding broader economic factors eg inflation and interest rates?

or going 29.5c ex-distribution

 

[Value Collector]

Price action has been sideways for most of the month until a sharp gap down yesterday.

Given no announcements, I assume that fall relates to investor sentiment regarding broader economic factors eg inflation and interest rates?

View attachment 179435

It went ex dividend yesterday, so $0.295 of the gap down was dividend, the other $0.10 was just general fluctuations which it has made back most of today.

Nothing much exciting happens at APA, think of it more like an inflation hedged bond, backed by some great critical national infrastructure.

The drop it it’s share price in the last 18months is just related to interest rate increasing, like all bonds when the interest rate increases bond prices fall, but as long as you are happen with the interest rate you signed up for when you bought the bond/APA and you plan to hold it through the interest rate cycle, you will be happy.