AOV - Amotiv Limited

[shinobi346]

Interesting to see that perteptual have pulled out of this. Will this get taken over as well like what happened to Rinker. GUD owns some famous aussie brands that have been around for a long time. It will be sad to see them go overseas as well.

 

[Kremmen]

I certainly care. I've had a substantial (for me) holding in GUD for about 3 years. They've been an excellent yield stock paying a good fully franked dividend.

Just kidding. It seems that most of the avid posters here are all leaping about over every mining stock in sight and ignoring stocks such as this.

I bought into GUD a few months ago, because I wanted to add to my high-dividend fully-franked income. GUD seemed much better value than, say, banks, which are traditionally great dividend payers.

I quite agree with you that a takeover could not improve their business greatly. Indeed, I don't think it would improve it at all. I was expecting this to be a keeper that would pay me dividends for years. I'm reconsidering this though. If a takeover bid occurs, I think the short-term will be wonderful (more of what it is doing now). Of course, if it's a private equity takeover and it's successful, we'll have nothing to think about, because we'll get bought out. Otherwise, the share price will probably fall back. Hence it seems the most likely result is to get out with a hefty profit and look to re-invest it somewhere else.

 

[bloomy88]

Hi all,

Have just been doing some research and came across this stock.

Huntley's recommendation on ETrade seems to be very upbeat about the stock

It is also paying a fully franked dividend of 11.9% at the moment.

I realise GUD sell comsumer discretionary items so that they are unlikey to have great results during this period but i still think as a long term hold they would be an attractive stock.

Any thoughts are aprecited

Cheers

 

[Kremmen]

Now I'm kicking myself. While GUD has been rising nicely, the big profit in the short term is in their takeover target, Breville. (BRG)

We should have seen that coming. Although, seeing there is no BRG forum on this site, I guess nobody here was watching the GUD/BRG action.

 

[Out Too Soon]

Now I'm kicking myself. While GUD has been rising nicely, the big profit in the short term is in their takeover target, Breville. (BRG)

We should have seen that coming. Although, seeing there is no BRG forum on this site, I guess nobody here was watching the GUD/BRG action.

Well it looks like you'd be kicking harder if you bought & held 'til now. I wonder if this is a buying opportunity or just back to normal now the takeover hype is over

 

[YELNATS]

Well it looks like you'd be kicking harder if you bought & held 'til now. I wonder if this is a buying opportunity or just back to normal now the takeover hype is over

Seems like an attractive offer for BRG holders although their directors have advised holders to "take no action" at present.

I wonder if the ACCC would have any issues with both Breville and Sunbeam small appliance brands being controlled by the one player.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Seems like an attractive offer for BRG holders although their directors have advised holders to "take no action" at present.

I wonder if the ACCC would have any issues with both Breville and Sunbeam small appliance brands being controlled by the one player.

The ACCC certainly does have issues, announcing that it would block a hostile takeover offer from GUD for Breville.

The ACCC said GUD and Breville are "by far" the two largest players in Australia's small appliance market.

"Between them they account for the majority of sales of many product categories and for some products they have a dominant sales share in excess of 90 per cent," ACCC chairman Graeme Samuel said in a statement.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...bid-for-breville/story-e6frg9h6-1225810999696

 

[tinhat]

Not much lovin going on here for GUD. I had a look at the share price and chart just now thinking about selling down my holding to buy up some more TLS for the SMSF. Just noticed its on a rip. Might have to let it run.

 

[tinhat]

GUD share price is still running up nicely yet still yielding around 7.4%. It might get a nice run up to reporting season before going ex-dividend in August. On the weekly chart it has broken above the previous recent high back in May and this week it has bumped up against the upper bollinger band (on the weekly chart) so there might be a bit of retracement back to around the $8.40 mark in coming weeks. Around $8.80 is the 50% retracement level back to the high of $10.74 in November 2011. Price is rising on low volume so I am hopeful that it will find a new support level between $8.40 and $8.80.





The chart is looking good, it will be interesting to see the full year report. On the fundamentals, EPS have been falling over the past two years (forecast result for 2012 FY was 5.16% EPS contraction) and ROE has been falling over the past three years too. It's PE is currently at 13.67 (as of yesterday's close) so it's trading a little high on PE for a consumer discretionary in the current environment indicating that the market is looking for a earnings turnaround this year.

It's a good income earner for the SMSF although not an exciting business (its businesses sell very generic, highly substitutable consumer goods and I am concerned about long term competitive advantage). That said it is run well although profits have been held up by cost control rather than sales growth in the past couple of years. I'll wait for reporting season and the fully franked dividend and then decide on a price target for the medium term.

Is any one else following this company?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Been thinking how good the charts looks for the last 5 days or so. If it doesn't break 8.88 very soon, I'm going to lose interest. But I'd say a very good low risk bet.

 

[tinhat]

Some heavy selling off the last few days. Disappointing half year results. They should have hung onto their stake in Breville!

They are dropping prices on Sunbeam products. They are losing sales in the Oats business from the small shop trade to the big grocers and hardware chains.

Not a positive outlook. Could be a dividend trap.

 

[tinhat]

Massive sell-off in the first quarter of this year. GUD needs to keep above long term support at around the $7 mark. It will take a good half year report I would imagine (which I don't think the market are expecting) to turn the share price around from here. If they can maintain margins and at least maintain real earnings a share price 20-40% above where it is now might be justified (PE 12-14).

Good dividend but a high payout ratio. Still could be a value trap in the long run.

They need an industrial designer to remodel their kitchen appliances too. Other than the espresso machines, their appliance designs are tired.

 

[ukulele]

The market certainly didn't take too kindly on GUDs results released today, which is probably fair. Could be a short candidate if it closes below the 7 dollar mark.

 

[peter2]

The short term chart of GUD shows a recent break-out to a new high.

It certainly looks good, but this chart doesn't show the BIG picture.

GUD is now at all time highs. The $11 level has been as high as it got in the past. Kudos for the management team as they've had a rocky journey.

 

[charlsie]

wondering if anyone is watching this thread anymore. the price action over the last couple days seems strange. are there any thoughts?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The number of cars on Australia’s roads is projected to grow by 7 per cent and the average age of vehicles will increase to 10.9 years by 2025 in part because of COVID-19 fallout as households hold on to older vehicles for longer in the pandemic.

This is proving to be a boon for GUD

• Strong sales drove a record result, slightly above underlying EBIT guidance ($98-100m)
• Resilience of the automotive aftermarket reinforced by strong end user demand
• Cost inflation and supply chain pressures remain challenging with operational fitness initiatives to mitgate
• Confident in business positioning for FY22 but alert to COVID-19 uncertainties
• Focus for Automotive and Water remains on continued execution of core business and growth strategy
• Acquisitions successfully integrated and meeting expectations; appetite remains unchanged

GUD, which sells Ryco oil filters and air filters, Goss fuel pumps and hoses, Narva automotive lighting and electrical parts and a range of disc brakes products, almost tripled its final dividend to 32¢ per share after a 40 per cent hike in net profit to $61 million for 2020-21.

Revenue for GUD increased by 27 per cent to $557 million as demand from mechanics expanded in the pandemic. Inflation is hitting the car parts sector. Mr Whickman said a series of price rises had been implemented from the start of July which averaged out at between 3 to 4 per cent across the portfolio. Some prices were up between 6 to 7 per cent, others at 2 per cent-plus.

 

[Sean K]

The number of cars on Australia’s roads is projected to grow by 7 per cent and the average age of vehicles will increase to 10.9 years by 2025 in part because of COVID-19 fallout as households hold on to older vehicles for longer in the pandemic.

GUD was the first stock I ever bought, back in 1996. I think it was because I had a Victa lawnmower. Started to follow again.

 

[sptrawler]

Good points @Dona Ferentes, I haven't looked at them for a long time, but the car issue is worth thinking about IMO.
There will be a big push toward BEV's and they are a lot dearer than ICE vehicles, so maybe over the next short period of time there will be a propensity to keep what you have, how long that lasts for will be the issue but it may give GUD a sugar hit.
I would expect long term the ICE parts, to go the way of the coal power stations, in a lot of ways it is past the point of applying logics to the outcome, IMO it is a done deal in Australia.

It has actually become a competition to see who can get there first IMO. ?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

There will be a big push toward BEV's and they are a lot dearer than ICE vehicles, so maybe over the next short period of time there will be a propensity to keep what you have, how long that lasts for will be the issue but it may give GUD a sugar hit.

I would expect long term the ICE parts, to go the way of the coal power stations, in a lot of ways it is past the point of applying logics to the outcome, IMO it is a done deal in Australia. It has actually become a competition to see who can get there first IMO. ?

CEO Graeme Whickman also said that GUD is future-proofing itself from a slow and steady shift towards electric vehicles as the world’s major manufacturers eye various targets to move away from combustion engines.

He said in the group’s automotive business, the product mix had shifted in the past three years to about 60 per cent of items now being unrelated to the combustion engine. The company also runs a water pumps division, which suffered a 45 per cent drop in annual profits.

But the longer-term structural demand for the group’s products is robust as car owners look to keep their older models in the best shape. He said there were about 19.3 million cars on the road in 2020, and that is projected to increase by 7 per cent to 20.6 million vehicles by 2025.

The average age of cars in Australia is forecast to increase to 10.9 years by then, from 10.4 years old in 2020. Mr Whickman said the “sweet spot” for the group in the car parts aftermarket is vehicles more than five years old. That segment is projected to grow to about 16.2 million by 2025, from 14.4 million in 2020.

 

[DrBourse]

??